Summing Up The Week

The stock market lurched from geopolitical shock to macro uncertainty this week, giving investors a fresh gauntlet of volatility to navigate. Sentiment first cracked after President Donald Trump unleashed sweeping 50% tariffs on Canadian goods, an escalation that prompted an immediate one‑for‑one retaliation from Ottawa and revived chatter that the long runway before implementation suggests another potential TACO moment.

Mid‑week brought hotter‑than‑expected PCE inflation at 3.7%, knocking early gains off the major indexes, before Nvidia (NVDA) finally snapped its post‑earnings curse with a +7% surge that reignited tech momentum.

And by Friday, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a tone of disciplined caution at Jackson Hole, offering no policy hints but enough restraint to keep the market’s bullish drift intact heading into the weekend.

Let's take a deeper dive into the news that moved stocks this week..

Market News

Trump announces 50% tariffs on Canada

After trade negotiations with Canada fell through over the weekend, President Donald Trump initiated sweeping 50% tariffs on a variety of Canadian exports while also warning the United States would raise auto tariffs on Canada to 50% to escalate the trade war by January 1, 2027, reported CNBC.

"Canada has been ripping off the United States of America for years," Trump posted on Truth Social. "Not sustainable, and NOT ANYMORE! On January First, 2027, Tariffs on all Cars, Trucks, both large and small, Automotive Parts, and Steel, will be increased to 50%."

The extremely long deadline of nearly six months before the new tariffs would be enacted made many stock market pundits suggest that Trump will once again TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) and that this is simply yet another empty threat by the President.

On Tuesday, Canada retaliated with the Canadian administration and parliament announcing tariffs that would match the American trade war one-for-one. Canada also announced a multi-billion dollar fund to assist Canadian business owners affected by the tariff actions implemented by Trump.

Fed's preferred inflation gauge shows 3.7% annually in July

On Wednesday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation, showed inflation rose 3.7% on an annual basis in July slightly higher than estimates for 3.6%, reported CNBC. Naturally, bullish pundits choose to pull out food and energy costs - the two most volatile elements of the PCE - which shows that the PCE posted an in-line number with estimates.

The major indexes were positive going into the PCE print with both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ rolling over following the slightly hotter-than-expected number, going slightly into the red to start trading on Wednesday.

Nvidia finally pops after earnings

After several quarters of reporting blowout earnings reports with no positive reaction afterward, Nvidia (NVDA) once again reported a blowout quarter on Wednesday evening and rallied 7% on the back of it, reported CNBC.

Nvidia CFO Colette Kress said on Wednesday that the company expects revenue growth of 70% for fiscal 2028, which runs from February 2027 to January 2028. CEO Jensen Huang said demand "is much greater than 70%," but the company is constrained on the amount of product it can supply.

"This time last year, one lab alone was driving the build-out," said Huang. "Today, we have a golden age of new AI labs and startups, multiple frontier labs scaling in parallel, a thriving open-model ecosystem and physical AI coming online - with strong momentum across the U.S. and around the world."

Tech stocks and the entire market rallied on the back of Nvidia's excellent quarter throughout trading on Thursday.

Warsh expresses inflation concern, wants "quieter" Fed

On Friday, new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh presented his first keynote speech at the annual Jackson Hole central bank symposium, expressing concerns about sticky inflation while advocating for a "quieter" central bank, reported CNBC. As expected, Warsh gave no insights into forward guidance on any monetary policies the Fed may or may not be considering in the coming months, instead focusing on a general macro look at his expectations as the new Fed chair.

Warsh acknowledged the potential headwinds of inflation, "while this summer’s [inflation] readings were better than expected, they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved," he said. "We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do. That’s our job . . . our mandate . . . and our charge to keep."

"The Fed plays an essential role in the economy and the markets. And our tools are powerful. We determine the path of short-term interest rates. And market participants will always try to anticipate what we will do next," said Warsh. "But we should not indulge a regime in which market participants are looking primarily to the Fed for their next trade."

Warsh chose outline his approach to managing the Federal Reserve while taking extreme care to avoid providing any comments that might be misread as directions the Fed might be taking. "I stand here today committed to a discipline, not to a decision," he said.

Stocks were flat heading into Warsh's speech, however the markets rallied after he finished, likely due to relief over no additional guidance - one way or another - presented which might influence the bullish momentum stocks had been experiencing going into the symposium earlier in the week. 

Next Week's Gameplan

Next week's big news will come with Friday's payroll report for August, but before that we get some interesting data, too. On Monday, we'll get insights into wholesale and retail inventories with ADP's jobs report on Wednesday and U.S. Services PMI on Thursday.

Plus, we still have earnings reports coming out with Palo Alto Networks (PANW) shedding light into the cybersecurity sector after the bell on Tuesday; Snowflake (SNOW) providing more insights into artificial intelligence after the bell on Wednesday; wrapped up by the little sketchy AI that could, UiPath (PATH), reporting after the market closes Thursday.

Additionally, Monday is the last day of August and trading volume will begin to increase as the "pros" return from their Hampton vacations. There will definitely be plenty to talk about when we meet back here next Friday, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

I’ve been involved in Bitcoin since 2017, and during that time I’ve repeatedly witnessed an event during each Crypto Winter I call the “Money Vacuum.” The Money Vacuum precedes the final bottoming process to every single Crypto Winter in Bitcoin’s history… and it’s not bullish.

What is the “Money Vacuum?”

Bitcoin begins a Crypto Winter cycle after experiencing a painful drawdown of more than 42% from its most recent all-time high. Bitcoin can (and has) recovered from shallower selloffs to continue a bull market, but, for some reason, once Bitcoin sells off that key amount (or more), the bull market is over and a Crypto Winter begins.

After consolidating, Bitcoin will sell off even more, creating a short-term bottom more than -50% from the all-time highs. Despite the bearish price action, the bullish energy in the crypto space will remain palpable with dozens of so-called “experts” trying to claim the bottom is in.

As a result of oversold levels and bulls desperately wanting to get in before the next bull market, Bitcoin will experience a snapback rally from the cycle low, and these bullish “experts” will scream that the bottom is in, creating a FOMO effect where Bitcoin’s momentum sucks in money that had been waiting on the sidelines.

The entire effect acts like a vacuum sucking up millions of dollars from the sidelines, magnifying the upward momentum and resulting in a substantial rally off the lows as much as 50% or more off the low, convincing investors that the new bull market is upon them.

… except it isn’t.

The low isn’t even close to being in.

Bitcoin’s high off this late-cycle rally marks the starting point for the final bottoming process of the Crypto Winter cycle.

Did Bitcoin just start the Crash Countdown Clock?

In the past two Crypto Winters - 2018 and 2022 - Bitcoin made incredible Money Vacuum rallies from the low everyone thought was the bottom only to roll over and crash even further only to create a final bottom much, much lower.

In 2018, Bitcoin rallied more than +50% from $5,650 to about $8,500 with the Money Vacuum sucking in all the sidelined money before crashing to $3,130.

In 2022, Bitcoin rallied more than +49% from around $32,500 up to $48,500 with the Money Vacuum once again preying on unsuspecting sidelined bulls before crashing to $15,700.

In 2018, Bitcoin hovered around the rally high for about six days before breaking down to the trade around the assumed cycle bottom.

In 2022, Bitcoin hovered around the rally high for around eight days before breaking back to trading around the assumed cycle bottom.

Now, here we are in 2026.

Bitcoin just tagged the Next Support of Last Resort.

Check out that direct hit of the Next Support of Last Resort trendline Bitcoin made to the absolute penny on Tuesday and slightly higher on Thursday evening (or Friday if you go by GMT time when it comes to the 24/7 market that is crypto), rallying more than +41% off its $57,717.55 low to hit a high of $81,479.50.

I created the Next Support of Last Resort way back in January 2018 and I’ve been using the trendline - unchanged from its original price points - ever since. Despite technical analysis often being regarded as “astrology for traders,” Bitcoin has always made incredibly suspicious moves every single time it approaches this very trendline, using it as significant support when price trades above it and as even more powerful resistance when price trades below it.

“Astrology for Traders?” Maybe. But this is astrology that has a track record of actually working… over and over and over again.

By any measure, this is incredibly bullish price action which would indicate - in any other asset class - the solid reversal of a downtrend on the way to a new bull market.

… except Bitcoin isn’t just any other asset class.

With Bitcoin, this likely isn’t bullish price action, this is probably the beginning of the final bottoming process for a Crypto Winter… one, last crash.

So far, Bitcoin is still following the Crypto Winter market playbook to the tee, the one I outlined in my July blog post discussing this exact scenario of a rally off the cycle low around $57K to a potential rally high somewhere between $80K-$85K…

… right where Bitcoin’s trading right now.

If this Crypto Winter is anything like 2018 or 2022, we may expect a break of support within a week of when Bitcoin makes the final rally high. Afterward, Bitcoin would likely head back to the $57K-$62K range, followed by the final crash where Bitcoin could sell off -63% or more from the rally high, giving us bottom targets as low as $30K-$26K, a final Crypto Winter selloff equivalent to those seen in 2018 and 2022, respectively.

What could make me bullish?

I have made a practice to always challenge my internal narrative. If I feel bullish, what could make me turn bearish? If I feel bearish, what could make me turn bullish?

In Bitcoin’s case, I’m clearly (very) bearish, so I need to see one of the following two scenarios play out for me to turn bullish:

Bitcoin consolidates here for a much longer period of time and is able to maintain support at the rally’s highs convincingly. If Bitcoin is able to hold this level for several weeks - or even months - that price action would go a long way to show this rally wasn’t simply a short-lived, flash-in-the-pan event like prior Crypto Winter cycles.

Bitcoin rallies above the $80K-$86K range. In past Crypto Winters, Bitcoin’s end-of-cycle rally before the final bottoming process saw Big Orange add about +50% from its cycle low before rolling back over and crashing further. If Bitcoin breaks out above $86K - preferably creating new support levels along the way - and rallies higher, that move would conflict with prior Crypto Winter cycles and would add new evidence that this Crypto Winter is over.

This means the current level is incredibly critical to both the bulls and bears. The bulls need this level to hold, for Bitcoin to build support, and for crypto to head higher from here. The bears need Bitcoin to break support sooner rather than later. If Bitcoin is able to hold this level for more than two weeks (or rally higher), that price action would directly conflict with the cycle of prior Crypto Winters.

So, is this time different or did Bitcoin just start the Crash Countdown Clock?

We’ll find out in a week or two!

Bitcoin Trade Update

Current Allocation: 19.667% (Unchanged since Last Update)
Current Per-Coin Price: $98,646.08 (Unchanged since Last Update)
Current Profit/Loss Status: -19.25% (+2.05% since Last Update)

I’ve been investing and trading for nearly 30 years and even though that’s an incredibly (nearly painfully) long time, I can still be tempted by the euphoric FOMO urges that accompany a massive bull rally, particularly in Bitcoin. This most recent rally has been no exception with me adding new buy orders to my buying plan in my most recent update last Friday.

However, over the past week, I did some soul-searching and realized one of two scenarios is playing out in Bitcoin:

This Time Is Different: This Crypto Winter bottomed significantly shallower than any other prior cycle and Bitcoin is now headed to make new all-time highs.

This Time Isn’t Different: This Crypto Winter is following the exact same scenario as 2018 and 2022. This rally will be short-lived with Bitcoin eventually rolling over and breaking to new significantly lower-lows.

Consequently, either Bitcoin won’t offer me the opportunity to add to my trade because it’s heading to new highs or Bitcoin will crash through all of the levels I have purchased at up until this point on its way to making new lows.

This conclusion made me realize: Why did I add buy orders at levels I purchased previously? If Bitcoin crashes, it will simply slice right through those old levels.

Clearly, I was allowing myself to succumb to the FOMO of a great Bitcoin rally (and it really has been an exciting rally to watch). To get myself back in line with my own risk management discipline, I have once again adjusted my buying plan by removing those additional buys I inserted last week.

If Bitcoin never retreats, than my 19.667% position will become profitable and I’ll soon have the high-quality problem of having a smaller allocation trade than I would like that also happens to be incredibly profitable; a problem I never mind having.

If Bitcoin does what I expect it to and crashes just like it has in every other Crypto Winter in its entire history, then I’ll be able to add in size at lower levels as Bitcoin heads to the real bottom of this Crypto Winter cycle.

Either outcome is a win-win for me and, more importantly, I have once again maintained my risk discipline by not allowing FOMO to get the better of me.

Of course, if Bitcoin maintains support (or rallies above $85K) from here, I will revisit my gameplan as that kind of upward momentum thrust provides further evidence that this Crypto Winter is different and new highs are in store.

Either way, the coming weeks will certainly be fun, sports fans! 😀👍

Bitcoin Trade Update

Premium subscribers to Get Irked get access to all the moves I've made in my Bitcoin trade over the past week as well as my next thirty (30) ... yes, 30 ... buys in Bitcoin including price levels, quantities, and a full layout of my ongoing long-term trade in the world's biggest crypto.

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto...

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin's price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.
• In July 2026, Bitcoin dropped -54% to a low of $57,717.55.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

The only reason I speculate in the cryptocurrency space is I truly believe Bitcoin isn’t headed to zero.

I am prepared for that possibility, however, by knowing I could potentially lose all of the capital I’ve allocated to this speculative investment. Professional advisers recommend speculating with no more than 5% of an investor’s overall assets. Personally, I’ve allocated less than that to speculating in crypto.

I feel that anyone who doesn’t fully believe in the long-term viability of cryptocurrency would be better served not speculating in the space.

On a good day, this asset class isn’t suitable for those with weak stomachs. On volatile days, the sector can induce nausea in the most iron-willed speculator. If a speculator isn’t confident in the space, the moves will cause mistakes to be made.

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.

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If you or someone you know are having thoughts of suicide or self-harm, please contact the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline by visiting www.suicidepreventionlifeline.org or calling 1-800-273-TALK.

The hotline is open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.