Summing Up The Week

The stock market didn’t just wake up this week, it lurched upright, spilled its coffee, and realized the future of AI, crypto, and monetary policy might all be veering off-script at the same time.

In a stunning turn, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei publicly urged the industry to slow down AI development, a warning so stark that both Elon Musk and Sam Altman nodded in agreement with Altman cautioning that “we could lose control.” Microsoft (MSFT) followed by slapping guardrails on its own frontier models, and investors immediately priced in the possibility of a cooler AI cap‑ex cycle just as Middle East tensions continued to simmer. Stocks opened sharply lower.

Then, Washington added fuel to the fire. The Crypto Clarity Act which was widely expected to pass, collapsed in the Senate, blindsiding Bitcoin bulls and sending the world’s largest crypto asset slicing through a key support level. 

And, just when markets hoped for stability, the Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish surprise. The Fed raised rates as expected, but Chair Kevin Warsh’s blunt warning that inflation remains "still too high" rattled investors, knocking the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lower yet again.

Three shocks all leaving investors trying to figure out whether the future is accelerating, stalling, or simply slipping out of their hands.

Let's take a deeper dive into the news that moved markets this week...

Market News

Anthropic CEO suggests "slowing down" AI development, Musk & Altman agree

On Sunday, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei posted a blog arguing for the need for the AI industry to pace itself in order to prevent advancing the technology in the wrong direction. Elon Musk, CEO of xAI, and Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, came out in support of Amodei's thoughts, with Altman saying, "we could lose control."

On Monday, Microsoft (MSFT) set limits on future AI models in an effort to stem frontier development, reported CNBC. Microsoft announced the company would seek outside input before rolling on additional updates.

As a combination of the potential for slowed AI cap-ex spending combined with continued tension in the Middle East, stocks sold off Monday morning with the S&P 500 opening down more than -0.75% and the Nasdaq down more than -1.50%.

Crypto Clarity Act fails in the Senate

On Tuesday, the Clarity Act, a piece of regulation intended to regulate Bitcoin and cryptocurrency essential to growth in the sector, failed to pass a Senate cloture vote, reported CNBC.

Normally, I don't talk about Bitcoin or crypto in this blog since I have the Crypto Corner dedicated to it, but this was a serious failure that caused Bitcoin to break key support instantly as many (if not most) Bitcoin Bulls thought the act's passage was a lock.

"The compromise we had was a good ethics compromise that would have bought a lot of Dem votes," said Senator Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., a key Democratic negotiator, before the vote. Gallego charged Republicans with caring "more about making sure the president keeps making money than actually bringing regulations" and consequently "failing the whole system."

Given how pro-Bitcoin President Donald Trump was on the campaign trail leading to his re-election, the Clarity Act's failure could have repercussions on whether or not key incumbent Republicans will be able to keep their seats in the upcoming midterm elections.

Fed raises; Warsh warns inflation "still too high"

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve voted to raise the benchmark overnight interest rate by 0.25% to 3.75%-4% in a unanimous 12-0 vote with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh warning inflation is "still too high" in the subsequent press conference, reported CNBC.

During the press conference, Warsh made it clear that no one on the Fed is satisfied with the rate of inflation, "Our predominant focus is on the price stability side of our mandate;" The plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been for too long."

Despite the stock market expecting a rate hike, Warsh's hawkish tone was more than what most analysts expected, sending the S&P 500 down more than -0.75% and the Nasdaq down more than -0.50% following the end of the press conference.

Next Week's Gameplan

Next week, we get the U.S. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI on Wednesday with new home sales on Thursday. Friday's Durable Goods report might lend some insights into the health of the consumer, however there really won't be any known market-moving datapoints coming out.

The rest of the news that could send stocks one way or another will have to deal with one of the known unknowns like geopolitical concerns in the Persian Gulf, trading issues with America's irate international partners, or maybe even more news from the artificial intelligence sector.

Regardless, stocks are in a notoriously volatile of the year right now so it's anyone's guess what happens next! Join me here next Friday so we can go over everything that happened in the markets, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Bitcoin broke the key support level I had been warning it must hold when the Senate failed to pass the Clarity Act on Tuesday. The permabull Bitcoin X accounts I follow had all but guaranteed the Clarity Act would pass and that the act’s passage would lead Bitcoin to the promised land.

The Clarity Act failed in Congress. No attempts to pass it will be made until 2027, at the absolute earliest.

… once again, there are no experts in this field.

No one knows anything.

Bitcoin immediately dipped more than -4% on the Clarity Act’s failure, breaking through last week’s weekly low and the critical $75,538.12 support level established during Bitcoin’s rally from the low around $58K to its high of $82K in the past few weeks. Bitcoin finally bottomed at $74,887.50 on Tuesday, much lower than the key level of support it broke.

2014: Mt. Gox hack
2018: Bitcoin Cash fork
2022: FTX collapse
2026: Failure of the Clarity Act?

As I’ve said for many weeks now, this is exactly the price action that takes place before Bitcoin begins its final descent in every Crypto Winter. In fact, last week I warned that the catalyst wouldn’t matter and the Clarity Act’s failure may be just the random catalyst needed to upset the Bitcoin apple cart.

Not only is Bitcoin’s price action in line with a Crypto Winter, even the timing is directly in line with 2022’s and 2018’s final crash with Bitcoin beginning its final descent to the day on November 8. Expecting that kind of timing to happen again would be ludicrous since it was just a matter of luck with no real fundamental or technical basis, but wouldn’t it be crazy if the same thing happened once more?

As has become a fresh tradition in my Crypto Corner, let’s talk about what would make me bullish.

Optimally, Bitcoin needs to rally from this new low and break far above the resistance levels presented at $82,814.23, the current rally high; $91,147.01 the next resistance level; and, then, $97.963.62, the resistance level after out. At minimum, I’d really like to see Bitcoin’s price with a 9-handle at the start of it for me to believe the Bulls might be right.

Optionally, Bitcoin needs to hold the moving averages as support with the lowest key moving average, the 200-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently trading around $70,400. This gives Bitcoin some wiggle room to work with, enabling the Bears to push it lower but empowering the Bulls with a support level the crypto could rebound from to make new highs.

Unfortunately, as I keep pointing out, there is absolutely nothing about Bitcoin’s current timing, trajectory, or price action that suggests this time is different from any other Crypto Winter we’ve seen before. We’re in a seasonally weak time for equity markets with a myriad of potential negative macro and micro catalysts which could send all markets lower.

The Bulls really need to show up if they want to prevent Bitcoin from breaking down from here.

The Bullish Case

Bulls

The Bearish Case

Bears

Bitcoin Trade Update

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto...

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin's price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.
• In July 2026, Bitcoin dropped -54% to a low of $57,717.55.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

The only reason I speculate in the cryptocurrency space is I truly believe Bitcoin isn’t headed to zero.

I am prepared for that possibility, however, by knowing I could potentially lose all of the capital I’ve allocated to this speculative investment. Professional advisers recommend speculating with no more than 5% of an investor’s overall assets. Personally, I’ve allocated less than that to speculating in crypto.

I feel that anyone who doesn’t fully believe in the long-term viability of cryptocurrency would be better served not speculating in the space.

On a good day, this asset class isn’t suitable for those with weak stomachs. On volatile days, the sector can induce nausea in the most iron-willed speculator. If a speculator isn’t confident in the space, the moves will cause mistakes to be made.

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.

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