Summing Up The Week

Oil ripped toward triple‑digits this week as the Iran War spilled deeper into global energy supply lines and sent the stock market scrambling for cover. After fresh attacks on Saudi fields, missile strikes on tankers, and dueling denials between Washington and Tehran, markets were forced to digest a brutal reality: the world’s most critical shipping lanes are once again a battleground.

With Brent blasting past $100, WTI following suit, and inflation refusing to cool, investors entered the week bracing for carnage only to watch stocks lurch, wobble, and then unexpectedly rally on Friday.

It was a week where geopolitics wrote the script, oil stole the spotlight, and markets tried desperately to keep their footing.

Let's take a deeper dive into the news that moved markets this week...

Market News

Oil rises after attacks on Saudi Arabia fields

On Tuesday, Brent crude oil rose to nearly $100 following attacks on Saudi energy facilities and escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, reported CNBC. Saudi Arabia's Energy Ministry said operations at some energy fields were halted following attacks by Iran-proxy Houthi militant groups from Yemen which wounded more than 70 people.

These attacks followed the U.S. military striking three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday in retaliation for Iran's missile attacks on two warships. The Iranian Foreign Ministry denounced the attacks on commercial vessels as a "war crime" and acts of "economic warfare" in a statement Saturday.

Analysts warn that the new strikes could cause serious adverse affects to the global economy. "This appears to be a major escalation and tensions have once again ratcheted higher," said David Morrison, Senior Market Analyst at Trade Nation. He noted U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright had said it may prove impossible to reach a deal with Iran to prevent it obtaining a nuclear weapon.

President Donald Trump further stoked the fires in a Truth Social post on Monday where he said "oil prices will drop precipitously ... when we WIN the war with Iran." The S&P 500 pulled back in extended-hours trading Tuesday morning with the Nasdaq remaining relatively flat before the market opened after the three-day holiday weekend.

U.S. denies Iran attacked American vessels

As the strikes intensified in the Strait of Hormuz, the United States denied claims from Iran that the country had attacked two American warships in retaliation for earlier strikes on Wednesday, reported CNBC.

Iran's military said it struck the ships, along with eight oil tankers, in retaliation against the U.S. for destroying five Iranian tankers on Tuesday. Iran claimed the targets tried to cross an area of the Hormuz Strait it had designated "forbidden and unsafe," according to a statement published by semi-official Tasnim News Agency. However, U.S. Central Command responded later saying: "No U.S. Navy warship has been struck; all IRGC attempted attacks failed."

Brent crude oil continued to rise during premarket trading, breaking above the key $100 per barrel mark causing stock market indexes to sell off.

Wholesale prices rose 0.4% in August, as expected

On Thursday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed wholesaler prices rose 0.4% in August which was in-line with economist expectations, leaving headline PPI up 5.4% on the year, 0.1% higher than the estimate, reported CNBC.

Unfortunately, inflation is still higher than the Fed desires so the report wasn't great. "Net, net, today’s PPI inflation report does nothing to turn down the warnings about the inflation threats the economy faces, especially if you are an inflation hawk with an itchy trigger finger at the Federal Reserve," wrote Chris Rupkey, Chief Economist at Fwdbonds.

U.S. oil tops $100, Trump claims prices will fall "right after" midterm election

On Thursday, U.S. oil prices measured in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude crossed over the key $100 per barrel mark with President Donald Trump posting unfounded claims that oil and gas prices will "right after" the midterm election on TruthSocial, reported CNBC.

"Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward,” Trump told reporters at Joint Base Andrews before heading to Texas for the Republican Party’s midterm convention.He had been asked how he plans to explain to Americans why oil prices have just soared to highs not seen since the early weeks of the war.

Meanwhile, global benchmark Brent oil future traded above $101 per barrel for the first time since July on Wednesday, while U.S. WTI futures crossed over $100 per barrel a day later during Thursday trading.

The ongoing Iran War may cause oil prices to surge above $120 a barrel as attacks on shipping intensify, said Daan Struyven, Co-Head of Global Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs in an interview on CNBC’s "Squawk Box Asia."

Consumer inflation holds at 3.4% annually, as expected

On Friday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed inflation increased 0.4% in August giving us a 3.4% annual rate, both in-line with economist predictions, reported CNBC. Analysts believe this latest report locks in an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, potentially as soon as next week's Fed meeting.

"Chair Warsh and others signaled that interest rates can remain on hold only if disinflation continues and today’s August report did not deliver that," said Kathy Bostjancic, Chief Economist at Nationwide, in an interview with CNBC. "Further, the renewed march higher in oil, gasoline and diesel prices add to concerns that higher energy prices could spill over to other goods and services and inflation expectations."

Despite persistent inflation and the 90% odds of a rate hike, stocks surprised by rallying substantially during early Friday trading with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up more than +1% after the bell.

Next Week's Gameplan

The big news is the Federal Reserve's meeting with the decision on interest rates coming to us on Wednesday. Additionally, we'll see retail sales figures on Wednesday, too, followed by housing numbers on Thursday. Given the complete lack of predictability as a result of macroeconomic concerns from Japan and the Iran War, and we could see a lot more volatility going forward. 

Join me back here next Friday so we can dive deep into all the news, friends! 

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Bitcoin simply melted over the last week, making lower daily-lows nearly every day. The lower weekly high was established last Saturday at $81,438.01, before Bitcoin went on to break through last week’s low on Friday, not finding support until $76,030.00 and dangerously close to key support at $75,538.12.

As I said last week, if Bitcoin can’t break out of this range in a hurry, the gameplan of past Crypto Winters remain intact and we’re likely headed much, much lower.

The question many ask: Why? Why would Bitcoin crash lower?

Investors in general, but Bitcoin investors, specifically, seem to often focus on asking the question “why” whenever there’s a big downside move.

Why did Bitcoin’s crash to its final low in 2014, 2018, or 2022?
Why isn’t Bitcoin’s rally to $80K from $57K the legitimate bottom?
Why would Bitcoin crash even lower in 2026’s Crypto Winter?

Investors propose theses of what might cause a crash:

Will a combination of rising yields, oil price inflation, and a Japanese Yen crisis be the cause of Bitcoin to lose support?

Will Michael Saylor’s company, Strategy (MSTR), push its leverage too far and implode?

• In 2014, Bitcoin crashed because Mt. Gox - the only major exchange at the time - was hacked and millions of dollars in Bitcoin were stolen.

• In 2018, Bitcoin’s final crash was caused by Bitcoin Cash (do you even know what this crypto is? It used to be a big deal, believe it or not) when two camps couldn’t decide how to fork Bitcoin Cash, and one of the camps sold all of their Bitcoin (yes, they sold all their BITCOIN, not their Bitcoin Cash) in an effort to crash the price in retaliation.

• In 2022, Bitcoin’s final crash was caused by the reveal of FTX’s fraudulent behavior which upset trust in the space.

But, here’s the thing: the “why” doesn’t matter.

After a few years pass (or even just a few months), no one remembers the catalyst. I regularly speak with other crypto enthusiasts who had no clue what caused the final selloff in 2018 with some of them not even knowing what Bitcoin Cash even is (was?)!

The real question they should be asking isn’t “why,” the real question is “what are you going to do if it happens?”

Of course, if a crash is idiosyncratic by focusing on a single asset and it completely invalidates my investing narrative such as, say, Bitcoin’s blockchain being hacked rendering the entire blockchain useless, then, naturally, I won’t add any to my position. Instead, I’ll either HODL or bail entirely.

The same is true if the company whose stock I own suddenly has a CEO or CFO resign; reports financial irregularities; is the victim of an SEC investigation; or has something else happen that voids my investment narrative. That’s an instant sell signal.

However, when it comes to systemic crashes - crashes that aren’t asset-specific such as a crash of the entire cryptocurrency market or a crash of the stock market - then that’s when I use my buying plan which I prepared in advance. I prepare for the next crash in Bitcoin (and any asset) by identifying my next buy targets using different support levels on the way down, predetermining both the buy price and the quantity I plan to buy.

Asking “what” instead of “why” means planning ahead and knowing what you will do in the event of a crash. Do you add to your position? Do you cut your losses and get out? Do you trim some of the position but hold the rest? The decision is entirely up to you, but the best practice is to already know what you will do in advance so you won’t be the victim of your own emotions.

As for Bitcoin, I’m clearly still bearish.

Bitcoin has been unable to significantly break out of its current range, and the longer it stays here, the more likely the support breaks. Sure, this time could be different, but, historically, Bitcoin isn’t one of those assets that likes to build up a base and head higher. Instead, whenever it’s in a Crypto Winter, Bitcoin tends to builds a base only to eventually lose support and head lower.

Like I’ve said over the last few weeks, the current environment isn’t great for risk assets in general and Bitcoin specifically. Between inflation and macro concerns like the escalating Iran War or a potential Japanese Yen crisis, there are plenty of known unknowns which could upset all risk markets. Additionally, the September-October time period is typically home to healthy, garden-variety pullbacks in the stock market.

If we see a combination of different negative catalysts - which would not be unheard of in any way - this could cause Bitcoin to break the key support levels it’s formed and head back under $70K. If Bitcoin breaks $57K, it will definitely be time for the Bulls to get very concerned.

Bitcoin Trade Update

Premium subscribers to Get Irked get access to all the moves I've made in my Bitcoin trade over the past week as well as my next thirty (30) ... yes, 30 ... buys in Bitcoin including price levels, quantities, and a full layout of my ongoing long-term trade in the world's biggest crypto.

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto...

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin's price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.
• In July 2026, Bitcoin dropped -54% to a low of $57,717.55.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

The only reason I speculate in the cryptocurrency space is I truly believe Bitcoin isn’t headed to zero.

I am prepared for that possibility, however, by knowing I could potentially lose all of the capital I’ve allocated to this speculative investment. Professional advisers recommend speculating with no more than 5% of an investor’s overall assets. Personally, I’ve allocated less than that to speculating in crypto.

I feel that anyone who doesn’t fully believe in the long-term viability of cryptocurrency would be better served not speculating in the space.

On a good day, this asset class isn’t suitable for those with weak stomachs. On volatile days, the sector can induce nausea in the most iron-willed speculator. If a speculator isn’t confident in the space, the moves will cause mistakes to be made.

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.

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If you or someone you know are having thoughts of suicide or self-harm, please contact the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline by visiting www.suicidepreventionlifeline.org or calling 1-800-273-TALK.

The hotline is open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.