Summing Up The Week

Stocks continue to deal with significant volatility as rising mortgage risks, surging Treasury yields, and fresh geopolitical maneuvering collided to reshape investor sentiment.

Homebuyers are increasingly reaching for adjustable‑rate mortgages as 30‑year rates push past 7%, a sign of mounting strain in a housing market that’s already been limping for years. At the same time, blowout PMI readings sent the 10‑year yield screaming to a 19‑year high, reviving fears that the Fed may not be done tightening.

Meanwhile overseas, Iran’s offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz briefly eased oil prices  and nerves heading into Friday’s session initially, at least. As these crosscurrents intensify, markets are once again being forced to navigate a landscape where economic strength, inflation pressure, and geopolitical uncertainty are all rising at once.

Let's dive into the news that moved the stock market this week...

Market News

Homebuyers choosing riskier ARM mortgages

On Wednesday, the Mortgage Banker Association's index showed nearly 10% of homebuyers are choosing riskier Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARM) rather than going with 30-year fixed rate mortgages as the interest rate has soared over 7%, reported CNBC. An ARM mortgage offers you a specific rate for a particular number of years after which point the rate will adjust - either up or down - to match the rate being offered at that time.

Despite fall typically being the second-strongest time of the year for real estate sales, experts are bracing for a weaker season due to the higher rates. "Real estate agents are already noting a sharp pullback due to higher rates," reported CNBC. "Buyers and current homeowners are also searching for savings anywhere they can find them, even in riskier, adjustable-rate loans."

While the housing market has been weak for years now ever since inflation started rearing its head in 2021, a weaker housing market does provide insight into the greater American economy as a whole, as how Americans feel about the cost of their home directly impacts their spending.

10-year yield hits 19-year high on strong economic news

On Wednesday, stronger than expected  Manufacturing and Services PMI sent yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury through to new 19-year high as investors remain concerned about additional rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, reported CNBC. Monday's epic relief rally was cut short when the 10-year yield jumped to 5.058%, a rate not seen since July 2007.

Despite a strong American economy, many pundits point to the fact there will be a rate when the stock market actually becomes concerned. "To put the growth surge in context, barring the spike in demand following the opening up of the economy after the COVID-19 lockdowns, the latest improvement in business activity is the greatest recorded since early 2015," said US&P Global Market Intelligence Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson in a statement, "Business is clearly booming now in both manufacturing and services, [however] input costs have meanwhile jumped in September at the steepest rate for four years, with fuel and transport costs spiking higher thanks to the rise in oil prices."

The rise in the 10-year yield combined with rebounding oil prices caused both stocks and risk assets like Bitcoin to sell off during Wednesday trading.

Iran offers to reopen Strait of Hormuz within 7 days

Oil prices pulled back on Friday after Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear talks with the United States within seven days if the U.S. accepts its proposal, reported CNBC.

Iran claims the proposal remains similar to the MOU signed by President Donald Trump earlier this year. "If certain conditions are met, the Strait of Hormuz will be open at the end of seven days, and talks will be restarted," said Abbas Araghchi, Iran's Foreign Minister, at a press conference outside of the General Assembly. "The conditions we have asked the U.S. to meet are nothing new, nothing more than what was already in the Islamabad MOU, which was signed by the U.S. president."

As a result of the outreach, the price of oil pulled back, initially offering some relief in early trading in the stock market on Friday.

Next Week's Gameplan

After the hotter-than-expected Flash PMIs this week, next week will all be about seeing whether or not employment comes in strong, too. On Wednesday, we'll get a preview with the ADP report, but the big deal comes on Friday with the release of the U.S. payroll report for September.

Not only that, but we also have huge inflation data coming, too. On Wednesday, we'll get to see August's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index which is the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation. The index will help us see if sustained high oil prices have been making a trickle-down effect on the rest of costs in the economy.

Additionally, Tuesday will provide a consumer confidence survey for September, Wednesday will give some wholesale and retail inventory numbers, and there's also several Fed speeches throughout the week, too.

Finally, add on the end of the month, the end of the quarter, and the end of many investment firms' fiscal years, and next week promises to be a big one in a myriad of different ways! Make sure to check back in with me next Friday so we can go over everything that happened, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

With Bitcoin breaking above $87,000, it's done something it never has before during a Crypto Winter: it rallied off the assumed low, built an actual support level, and then rallied to another high! This week, Bitcoin broke through the resistance at $82,814.23, the previous rally high, and kept on going before setting a new weekly-high at $87,397.00 on Wednesday. It also set a much higher weekly low at $80,805.00 on Sunday.

Plus, take a look at that rollover retest of the key Next Support of Last Resort trendline that I’ve been using since January 2019. Is it possible Bitcoin has flipped it from resistance into support???

This an intriguing outcome for the Bulls since in both 2022 and 2018, the rally off the assumed Crypto Winter low (the one before it really bottomed) was short-lived - lasting less than two weeks - before Bitcoin rolled over and broke down to new lows.

Does that mean this time is definitely different?

OF COURSE NOT!

In 2022, Bitcoin sold off -77.57% from its all time high.
In 2018, it sold off -84.36%.
In 2014, it sold off -86.96%.

Heck, even during the pandemic selloff in March 2020, Bitcoin sold off -62.91%.

So far, Bitcoin has "only" sold off -54.25% from its all-time high.

If Bitcoin has bottomed, that would mean this Crypto Winter is the shallowest in its history by a statistically improbable amount!

Additionally, $87,397 isn’t a significantly high amount. In 2018, Bitcoin rallied from ~$5,400 to ~$8,500, a total of +57.41%, before turning around and crashing down to $3,130. $87,397 is +51.42% off the current cycle low. Bitcoin could still pull a fakeout, roll over, and crash to a final low much lower than $57,500 (even as low as the low $30Ks).

HOWEVER...

… with Bitcoin bucking the Crypto Winter trend, that means I have to change my tactics, too. This new price action means I’m now adding many more buying targets to my buying plan with my first buy target (with a small quantity buy) at $84,300.

We’re still heading into the most notorious time of the year for Crypto Winters with both 2018 and 2022 not starting the final descent to their final bottoms until the first week and a half into November. I can’t wait to see where we go from here!

The Bullish Case

Bulls

The Bearish Case

Bears

Bitcoin Trade Update

Premium subscribers to Get Irked get access to all the moves I've made in my Bitcoin trade over the past week as well as my next thirty (30) ... yes, 30 ... buys in Bitcoin including price levels, quantities, and a full layout of my ongoing long-term trade in the world's biggest crypto.

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto...

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin's price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.
• In July 2026, Bitcoin dropped -54% to a low of $57,717.55.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

The only reason I speculate in the cryptocurrency space is I truly believe Bitcoin isn’t headed to zero.

I am prepared for that possibility, however, by knowing I could potentially lose all of the capital I’ve allocated to this speculative investment. Professional advisers recommend speculating with no more than 5% of an investor’s overall assets. Personally, I’ve allocated less than that to speculating in crypto.

I feel that anyone who doesn’t fully believe in the long-term viability of cryptocurrency would be better served not speculating in the space.

On a good day, this asset class isn’t suitable for those with weak stomachs. On volatile days, the sector can induce nausea in the most iron-willed speculator. If a speculator isn’t confident in the space, the moves will cause mistakes to be made.

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.

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Studies show that economic recessions cause an increase in suicide, especially when combined with thoughts of loneliness and anxiety.

If you or someone you know are having thoughts of suicide or self-harm, please contact the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline by visiting www.suicidepreventionlifeline.org or calling 1-800-273-TALK.

The hotline is open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.