Summing Up The Week

The stock market kicked off the week under a cloud of geopolitical tension and economic unease, as fresh turmoil in the Iran conflict, a sharp drop in consumer confidence, and a surprisingly cool inflation print all collided to jolt markets in different directions.

Oil prices surged after President Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, sentiment soured as consumers voiced deep frustration over inflation and job prospects, and mid‑week relief arrived when the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge came in cooler than expected.

By Friday, a weaker‑than‑forecast payroll report flipped the script yet again, sending risk assets higher on hopes the Federal Reserve may pause its rate‑hike campaign.

Let's take a deeper dive into the news that moved the markets this week...

Market News

Trump rejects Iran's proposal to reopen Strait of Hormuz

On Monday, President Donald Trump rejected the Iranian peace proposal made last week, telling aides he plans to reinitiate air strikes following the midterm elections, reported CNBC. Trump offered little explanation as to why he rejected the proposal other than confirming he did so when speaking with reporters, "They made a proposal but I rejected it."

The renewed uncertainty over the Iran War caused the price of Brent crude oil futures to spike 2.7% higher with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude jumping more than 3% higher. As a result, the stock market opened down on Monday.

Consumer confidence drops sharply over inflation and jobs

On Tuesday, the consumer confidence index for September fell sharply as inflation and a pessimistic view on the labor market dominated respondents' surveys, reported CNBC. The index fell to 81.9, a drop of 6.7 points and substantially below the Dow Jones' consensus estimate for 89.

Inflation and concern over the labor market took center stage as many consumers described their personal finances as bad versus good for the first time in the four-year history of the question. "Consumer appraisals of current business conditions became negative for the first time since September 2024," said Dana Peterson, the Conference Board’s Chief Economist. "Consumers’ write-in responses regarding factors affecting the economy were mostly pessimistic in September, [with] references to prices, the high cost of goods and services, and oil and gas prices in particular, rose to new heights, reflecting September’s surge in fuel costs."

Stocks took the report in stride with the S&P 500 down only slightly and the Nasdaq up slightly at the market open, however Bitcoin seemed to take the news harder as the report reversed what had been bullish price action and caused the cryptocurrency to retreat.

Annual inflation at 3.4%, much cooler than expected

On Wednesday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation, put the annual gain at 3.4%, much lower than the Dow Jones' estimates for 3.7%, reported CNBC. The better-than-feared report offered some much-needed relief for the stock market which had been battered a bit during Monday and Tuesday trading.

While the prediction markets now believe the Fed will hold pat on interest rates at their October meeting, the belief remains they will raise in December. "This is good news for investors worried about the recent surge in bond yields, and it bolsters the case for not hiking in October," said David Russell, Global Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation. "However, it’s also relatively old data at this point that doesn’t reflect this month’s surge in diesel prices."

The news also caused a momentary pop in Bitcoin which had fallen under selling pressure following Tuesday's somewhat dismal consumer confidence numbers.

September added only 29K jobs, unemployment rose to 4.2%

Friday's payroll report was another example of bad news being good news with the labor market adding only 29,000 jobs in September versus expectations for 84,000 and the unemployment rate increasing to 4.2% versus a 4.1% estimate, reported CNBC.

Since the Federal Reserve had been justifying additional rate hikes on the back of a strong job market, a potentially weakening job market makes market participants believe the Fed may hold off a bit on the hiking cycle. As a result, all risk assets - including both stocks and crypto - rallied during Friday trading.

Next Week's Gameplan

With the September payroll report out of the way, next week starts to lighten up on significant datapoints. We'll see the U.S. Services PMI on Monday followed by the FOMC meeting minutes for September plus Consumer Credit on Wednesday. After that, there's really nothing of note which means we'll be eyeing the geopolitical news and whatever craziness might be thrown at us from who knows where!

Join me back here next Friday as we go over all the week's events, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Over the past week, Bitcoin has held the Next Support of Last Resort trendline (seen on the chart in blue) like an absolute champ. Flipping this key trendline from resistance into support has been a significant reason I am now cautiously optimistic that this time actually is different.

Since last week, Bitcoin made a higher weekly high at $87,249.05 on Friday, and, critically for the Bulls, Bitcoin also made a higher weekly low at $82,510.37 on Monday, sinking a bit below the Next Support of Last Resort but not breaking it.

This is constructive price action.

However, in every Bitcoin Crypto Winter, the permabulls find a reason to explain why “this time is a different,” and that the same thing which has happened in every, single, other Crypto Winter won’t happen this time.

In 2014, the permabulls claimed having an established exchange like Mt. Gox would prevent further downside.

It didn’t.

In 2018, the permabulls claimed more consumer interest in the space, having several different well-established exchanges, the introduction of new coins, and a lot of institutions dipping their toe in the space through newly-created futures markets would prevent further downside.

It didn’t.

In 2022, the permabulls claimed the billions being poured into the space through avenues like the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, the new all-time high around $70K, and the myriad of new crypto offerings like Non-Fungible Tokens (NFT) meant the volatility seen in prior Crypto Winters was gone for good.

It wasn’t.

Now, in 2026, the permabulls are back on the “this time is different” bandwagon claiming that the ETFs and all of the institutional support means Bitcoin bottoming improbably shallower than any, other Crypto Winter means this downward cycle is over, the bottom is in, and we’re in the new Bull Market to $250K and beyond.

… they could be right.

Yes, eventually this time really will be different and, yes, this could be that very time. However, as investors, we need to prepare for all possible outcomes, not just the ones we hope will happen. Now that we’re heading into the October-November time period which has been historically dicey for Bitcoin. Not to mention that we’re seeing U.S. treasury yields we haven’t seen in decades, the Iran War shows no signs of stopping any time soon, and the U.S. midterm elections are right on the horizon.

There is a lot for both the Bears and the Bulls to chew on right now.

Personally, I am hopeful that the permabulls are right and this time really is different, but I am also prepared for the possibility that this Crypto Winter is just like every one before it and that we’re not done with the volatility, yet.

The Bullish Case

Bulls

The Bearish Case

Bears

Bitcoin Trade Update

Premium subscribers to Get Irked get access to all the moves I've made in my Bitcoin trade over the past week as well as my next thirty (30) ... yes, 30 ... buys in Bitcoin including price levels, quantities, and a full layout of my ongoing long-term trade in the world's biggest crypto.

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto...

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin's price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.
• In July 2026, Bitcoin dropped -54% to a low of $57,717.55.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

The only reason I speculate in the cryptocurrency space is I truly believe Bitcoin isn’t headed to zero.

I am prepared for that possibility, however, by knowing I could potentially lose all of the capital I’ve allocated to this speculative investment. Professional advisers recommend speculating with no more than 5% of an investor’s overall assets. Personally, I’ve allocated less than that to speculating in crypto.

I feel that anyone who doesn’t fully believe in the long-term viability of cryptocurrency would be better served not speculating in the space.

On a good day, this asset class isn’t suitable for those with weak stomachs. On volatile days, the sector can induce nausea in the most iron-willed speculator. If a speculator isn’t confident in the space, the moves will cause mistakes to be made.

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.

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If you or someone you know are having thoughts of suicide or self-harm, please contact the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline by visiting www.suicidepreventionlifeline.org or calling 1-800-273-TALK.

The hotline is open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.