Summing Up The Week

The stock market stumbled like someone yanked the rug out from under Wall Street mid‑stride this week. A rare three‑member Fed dissent upset nearly a decade of rate‑policy unity, spooking bonds and sending stocks tumbling more than 1.5% as investors tried to decode whether this was a one‑off rebellion or the start of a harder‑line inflation fight.

Then, barely 24 hours later, fresh economic data delivered its own plot twist: inflation cooled exactly as expected, but GDP growth limped in at 1.5%, reviving worries that the U.S. economy is losing steam just as geopolitical uncertainty keeps pressure high. The result? A whiplash week where markets swung from fear to relief and traders were reminded that in 2026, stability is still the exception, not the rule.

Let's take a deeper dive into the news that moved markets this week...

Market News

Fed keeps rates steady but three dissent

Despite the predictions markets nearly pricing in a 50/50 chance of the Federal Reserve hiking rates at their Wednesday meeting, the majority of the Fed voted to hold interest rates while three dissented, instead voting for a hike, reported CNBC. The dissenters made the final vote 9-3 in favor of keeping rates steady with the three "no" votes came from Beth Hammack of Cleveland, Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis, and Lorie Logan of Dallas. All three had been vocal about about needing higher rates to address inflation.

The three dissenting votes marked the first time since September 2016 when the Fed hadn't been unanimously united regarding the direction of interest rates. The FOMC once again stated that "Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East." The statement went on to say job growth has "kept pace with the workforce and the unemployment rate has changed little."

Stocks were selling off going into the FOMC meeting, but the inaction of the Fed to make any moves to curb inflation spooked the bond market which resulted in the S&P 500 closing the day down more than -1.50%.

Economy slowed to 1.5% growth in Q2 with inflation at 3.7%

On Thursday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, showed June inflation falling 0.1% in June to an annual inflation rate at 3.7%, in line with forecasts, but the economy increased only 1.5% from April through June which was below economists' estimates looking for a growth rate of 1.8%, reported CNBC. 

According to CNBC, "While the GDP number was below expectations, the miss appeared to come from a decline in federal government spending and inventories. Other parts of the economy appeared strong."

The stock market rose following the report following Wednesday's rout combined with relief over inflation not rising sharply as some feared as a result of the U.S.-Iran War.

Next Week's Gameplan

Next week, we'll receive manufacturing PMI on Monday; ADP employment and ISM services on Wednesday; and the U.S. employment/payroll report for July on Friday. Additionally, we're still in the thick of earnings season so I will be closely watching the reports from my holdings:

Monday: Palantir (PLTR) reports After Market Close (AMC).

Tuesday: Caterpillar (CAT) and IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX) report Before Market Open (BMO). Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Opendoor Technologies (OPEN), and Pinterest (PINS) report AMC.

Wednesday: Disney (DIS), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Shopify (SHOP), and Uber (UBER) report BMO. Block (XYZ), Dutch Bros (BROS), Equinox Gold (EQX), Joby Aviation (JOBY), and Nutrien (NTR) report AMC.

Thursday: Zoetis (ZTS) reports BMO. DraftKing (DKNG), Genius Sports (GENI), and Twilio (TWLO) report AMC.

Friday: Canopy Growth Corporation (CGC) reports BMO. Take Two Interactive (TTWO) reports AMC.

As you can see, next week promises to be another busy week with the expected smattering of "will they, won't they" messaging from both the U.S. and Iran regarding ongoing hostilities/peace talks so join me back here on Friday to sift through all the data, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

After decently constructive price action last week, Bitcoin broke Bearish once more this week. Later in the day after my last update went to print, Bitcoin broke below the weekly low at $63,702.01 on Friday before cracking far below on Tuesday, not finding support until $62,645.39.

Bitcoin also failed to even come close to making a new weekly-high, barely recovering from last Friday’s pullback to set a much lower weekly-high at $65,705.08 on Monday before Tuesday’s support breakdown.

The Bullish Case

Bulls continue to share the same narrative as to why the low is in for crypto:

• Retail interest is low and sentiment is lower

• Funding rates haven’t reached extreme levels

• Liquidity expansion is still early

• Relative strength has reached levels unseen in the history of the sector

Bulls use these arguments to claim that Bitcoin is exhibiting mid-cycle behavior, that the bottom is in, and that new all-time highs are coming by Q4-2026 / Q1-2027. Some argue that altcoins like Ether, Solana, and others are in a cycle more akin to 2016 and 2020 indicating huge upside ahead, with these Bulls buying significant amounts of these alts at current levels.

A few Bulls I follow are going so far as to use extreme leverage, putting on positions that need Bitcoin to hit all-time highs by the end of 2026 in order for those trades to become profitable… just five short months away.

I hope they’re right.
I hope crypto has bottomed.

But…

The Bearish Case

Bears argue that the Bulls are attempting to apply short-term indicators to long-term timeframes; a use they were never made to execute. This is correct.

J. Welles Wilder, Jr., the analyst who invented the Relative Strength Index (RSI) way back in his book New Concepts ion Technical Trading Systems released in 1978, wrote about the risks of applying RSI in long timeframes as he found it to be more accurate in shorter timeframes.

Even in shorter timeframes - any timeframe - RSI has proven its ability to become even more overbought and more oversold than ever seen prior across almost all asset classes.

As for the rest of the Bull Case, the argument they’ve used for less downside can also be used to explain these indicators: more institutional money in the space.

I keep coming back to the same unfortunate Bear argument over and over again:

• Whenever Bitcoin sells off more than -42.50% from its most recent all-time high, it enters a Crypto Winter.

• In Bitcoin’s entire history, the shallowest Crypto Winter was 2022’s when Bitcoin sold off more than -77% from ATH to its cycle low, less than 8% shallower than 2018’s selloff.

• Currently, Bitcoin has only sold off -54.50% from its ATH to its current cycle low. That’s a differential of more than 30% from 2022’s selloff.

• No Crypto Winter has bottomed before at least 360 days have passed from peak to trough. As of writing on Friday, July 31, it’s been 298 days.

When analyzing any asset, statistical probability and historical precedent provide more precision and accuracy than short-term indicators applied to longer-than-intended timeframes.

As a result, while I believe we are far closer to the end of this Crypto Winter than the beginning or midway point, there’s quite a bit of downside left before Bitcoin has bottomed.

This time could be different, but until Bitcoin makes it above the 200-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently trading around $71,500, and flips it from resistance to support, the Bulls have not proven their case enough for me to think the bottom is in for Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, or any of the rest of the crypto sector.

Bitcoin Trade Update

Premium subscribers to Get Irked get access to all the moves I've made in my Bitcoin trade over the past week as well as my next thirty (30) ... yes, 30 ... buys in Bitcoin including price levels, quantities, and a full layout of my ongoing long-term trade in the world's biggest crypto.

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto...

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin's price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.
• In July 2026, Bitcoin dropped -54% to a low of $57,717.55.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

The only reason I speculate in the cryptocurrency space is I truly believe Bitcoin isn’t headed to zero.

I am prepared for that possibility, however, by knowing I could potentially lose all of the capital I’ve allocated to this speculative investment. Professional advisers recommend speculating with no more than 5% of an investor’s overall assets. Personally, I’ve allocated less than that to speculating in crypto.

I feel that anyone who doesn’t fully believe in the long-term viability of cryptocurrency would be better served not speculating in the space.

On a good day, this asset class isn’t suitable for those with weak stomachs. On volatile days, the sector can induce nausea in the most iron-willed speculator. If a speculator isn’t confident in the space, the moves will cause mistakes to be made.

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.

Suicide Hotline - You Are Not Alone

Studies show that economic recessions cause an increase in suicide, especially when combined with thoughts of loneliness and anxiety.

If you or someone you know are having thoughts of suicide or self-harm, please contact the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline by visiting www.suicidepreventionlifeline.org or calling 1-800-273-TALK.

The hotline is open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.