Summing Up The Week

The stock market opened the week bracing for impact as geopolitical tensions, surging bond yields, and a surprise economic beat collided to jolt investor sentiment. A fresh round of U.S.–Iran live fire punctuated by President Trump’s AI‑generated Kharg Island strike video and retaliatory attacks on American bases pushed oil higher but left equities treading water.

By Tuesday, rising global bond yields and tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz dragged stocks lower as fears of escalation mounted. Midweek brought a rare bright spot when Snowflake shattered expectations and reignited hope that software isn’t dead after all, sending the stock soaring more than +16%.

However, Friday’s blowout August jobs report flipped the script again, with hotter‑than‑expected hiring stoking concerns of a September rate hike and triggering a broad selloff across risk assets.

Let's take a deeper dive into the news that moved markets this week...

Market News

Trump posts AI video of Kharg Island attack while U.S. & Iran exchange live fire for first time in a month

On Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump posted an AI video of an attack on Iran's Kharg Island on TruthSocial shortly before the U.S. attacked Iran with airstrikes for the first time since July, reported CNBC.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Monday said it launched an attack on two U.S. bases in Jordan in response to a U.S. attack on Larak Island over the weekend,  according to Iranian media.

American forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island on Sunday after the military said the IRGC was preparing rockets carrying sea mines for launch into the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Central Command confirmed to MS NOW.

"Earlier today U.S. forces struck two Iranian launchers on Larak Island. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces were observed preparing to launch rockets with sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz," Navy Capt. Tim Hawkins, a U.S. Central Command spokesperson, said in a statement. “Last week, CENTCOM completed clearing sea mines from the strait’s international shipping routes. U.S. forces are monitoring the area closely and remain prepared to protect the free flow of commerce through this essential waterway."

While oil prices rose nearly +4% in premarket trading on Monday, the major indexes remained relatively flat on the news.

Global bond yields rise as U.S.-Iran strikes escalate

On Tuesday, global bond yields continued to surge as investors worried over the escalation in the U.S.-Iran crisis with Tehran urging a return to June's MOU while Trump vows to hit Iran "hard," reported CNBC. The feud escalated on Tuesday following alleged attacks on several tankers in the Strait of Hormuz including a confirmed attack on a tanker hit by three unknown projectiles on Monday.

Additionally, Iran launched attacks on two American bases in Jordan on Monday reportedly as retaliation for U.S. strikes on Larak Island. American forces targeted two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island on Sunday accusing Tehran of intending to launch rockets carrying sea mines into the strait.

While both sides claim a desire not to return to war, their actions speak differently. "We are going to hit them hard," President Donald Trump said an interview with Fox News on Monday, warning "there will be a response" to Iran’s attacks on U.S. military bases in the region.

Stocks kicked off September selling off as a result of the news and the rise in bond rates with the S&P 500 selling off more than -0.60% and the Nasdaq down nearly -1.25% at Tuesday's market open.

Is software not dead? Snowflake (SNOW) blows away expectations

On Wednesday, Snowflake (SNOW) blew away all expectations reporting record growth and significant pickup on their services as customers prefer performing AI in a protected environment. Snowflake reported earnings of $0.62 a share versus $0.447  expected and revenue of $1.55 billion versus $1.48B expected. An outstanding beat which resulted in the stock popping over +20% during extended hours trading before retreating slightly to settle in at a reasonable +16.55% gain on Thursday.

Snowflake's report proves that software as an industry isn't dead - investors just need to be careful in picking which software stock they choose to invest in. As a result, most other software players in the space rallied in sympathy.

U.S. added 162K jobs in August, much more than expected

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) payroll report showed the U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in August, far greater than the 35,000 expected by economists, while unemployment came in at 4.1%, reported CNBC. August's gain was the strongest monthly gain since earlier this year in March.

In a prototypical case of "good news is bad news," risk assets including stocks and crypto sold off on the news as a hot job market and economy adds more fuel to the fire that the Federal Reserve may have to raise interest rates when they meet later in September. Precious metals also sold off as a rising interest rate environment is not beneficial to gold investors; with no yield, investors will opt for bonds over the precious metals when the interest rate rises.

Next Week's Gameplan

Next week brings some datapoints investors have been waiting for in order to get a vision into what's going on in the economy. On Tuesday, we get the consumer credit report for July followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) and home sales on Thursday. On Friday, we get the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the inflation report the market seems to adore, which will provide a lot more insights into the state of inflation in terms of how it has affected the consumer so far.

Combine the datapoints with a seasonally weak time of the year and a market filled with macro events like the U.S.-Iran War and the weakening Japanese Yen, and you get a market where a lot could happen very quickly.

Plus, with the markets closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday, it's a shortened trading week, too!

Join me back here next Friday to go over all the news in detail, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Did Bitcoin just diverge? In prior Crypto Winters, Bitcoin rallied +50% or more off what was thought to be the cycle low only to roll over and sell through that low. When rallying, Bitcoin would make a high only to lose support and fall lower after 6-8 days.

Now, this is just the beginning of something (and with such a small sample of set of just 3 prior Crypto Winters… it’s hardly statistically confident), but Bitcoin just did something new: it made a rally high last Friday, rolled over, and looked like it was about to lose support… until it made a higher high this Thursday.

In the past, Bitcoin’s momentum has failed at a key point with Bears grasping the upper hand and pushing Bitcoin back down to its lows. So far, the Bulls have been able to keep upward momentum in the crypto.

Granted, Bitcoin still has an absolute ton of wood to chop before we can safely say that we’re out of the woods for a lower-low, but I must admit I got a bit excited when my alert went off letting me know that Bitcoin was heading higher rather than heading lower.

All of this being said, that pesky Next Support of Last Resort trendline I talked about last week once presented enough resistance to Bitcoin that it was unable to break that far above last week’s high, creating the new high at $82,814.23, a modest beat of +1.64% over the past high. Additionally, while Bitcoin made a higher-low at $76,219.18, there’s not a whole lot of wiggle room between that low and the key support at $75,538.12

Bitcoin still remains very much in line with history:

1. Seemingly unable to break above the key level of $80K-$85K;
2. Not yet testing support and rebounding to confirm upward momentum;
3. Very much within the timeframe to have the same Crypto Winter scenario play out that has played out every Crypto Winter prior.

But a bullish sign is still a bullish sign, and it was certainly enough to provide me with a flicker of hope that maybe - just maybe - this time is different for Bitcoin.

What does Bitcoin need to do to continue the bullish momentum?

Bitcoin really needs to get the heck out of this range in a big hurry. The current price range is extremely risky. While Bitcoin flipped the script on making a new higher-high in the rally, that could simply be a false breakout before Bitcoin falls prey to the same script every other Crypto Winter has seen.

I’d like to see Bitcoin rally quite a bit above $85,000 - preferably above $90,000 - before pulling back to create new support levels (or not pull back at all and just head higher). If the Bulls can’t carry Bitcoin higher before it rolls over, then it really, really needs to hold $75,538.12 (and preferably create support at a higher level than that).

If Bitcoin rolls over and falls through support to lower-lows, all bets are off on this time being different with my expectation that Bitcoin will sell off into the $60-$70K range before eventually losing that support and breaking down to new lows.

Combine that challenge with September-October being a seasonally weak time in markets with many a -5% or greater correction being common in risk asset markets, and the Bulls have their work cut out from them.

But, still, a glimmer of hope every once in awhile doesn’t hurt…

Bitcoin Trade Update

Premium subscribers to Get Irked get access to all the moves I've made in my Bitcoin trade over the past week as well as my next thirty (30) ... yes, 30 ... buys in Bitcoin including price levels, quantities, and a full layout of my ongoing long-term trade in the world's biggest crypto.

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto...

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin's price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.
• In July 2026, Bitcoin dropped -54% to a low of $57,717.55.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

The only reason I speculate in the cryptocurrency space is I truly believe Bitcoin isn’t headed to zero.

I am prepared for that possibility, however, by knowing I could potentially lose all of the capital I’ve allocated to this speculative investment. Professional advisers recommend speculating with no more than 5% of an investor’s overall assets. Personally, I’ve allocated less than that to speculating in crypto.

I feel that anyone who doesn’t fully believe in the long-term viability of cryptocurrency would be better served not speculating in the space.

On a good day, this asset class isn’t suitable for those with weak stomachs. On volatile days, the sector can induce nausea in the most iron-willed speculator. If a speculator isn’t confident in the space, the moves will cause mistakes to be made.

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.

Suicide Hotline - You Are Not Alone

Studies show that economic recessions cause an increase in suicide, especially when combined with thoughts of loneliness and anxiety.

If you or someone you know are having thoughts of suicide or self-harm, please contact the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline by visiting www.suicidepreventionlifeline.org or calling 1-800-273-TALK.

The hotline is open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.