Summing Up The Week

The stock market didn’t just stumble this week, it was yanked into a full‑blown reality check. The Iran War flared again as Houthis threatened to choke off the Bab el‑Mandeb Strait, a move that instantly reminded investors how fragile global shipping really is.

At the same time, Wall Street was blindsided by a pair of AI giants as Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA) unveiled eye‑watering cap‑ex plans that vaporized billions in market cap overnight.

And just when traders thought they’d digested all that chaos, Brent Crude punched back above $100, forcing the market to finally acknowledge what it had been pretending wasn’t true: war, soaring energy prices, and rising Treasury yields don’t magically disappear because stocks feel like rallying.

This was the kind of week that snaps complacency in half and tests who’s actually paying attention.

Let's take a deeper dive into the news that moved the markets this week..

Market News

Iran and Houthis threaten Saudi Arabia shipping lane

On Tuesday, the Iran War re-escalated when Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis attempted to impose an embargo on Saudi Arabia by threatening to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key alternative route to the Strait of Hormuz, reported CNBC.

This escalation followed the U.S. completing new strikes against Iran on Monday evening as well as the Iran-backed Houthis. "U.S. forces struck Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and air defense systems to degrade Iran’s ability to continue attacking commercial vessels flowing through the Strait of Hormuz," Centcom said in a statement.

The Houthis have regularly used the threat to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait throughout the past few years and have even successfully done so in the past. The alternative route serves as another choke point for shipping as it connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.

Market pulls back on concerns over increased AI spending

On Wednesday evening, both Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA) reported dramatic increases in future cap-ex spending on artificial intelligence (AI) causing a market-wide pullback on Thursday, reported CNBC. Tesla stock fell 12% while Alphabet lost over 6%. The moves come after Alphabet shares closed 1.46% lower on Wednesday and Tesla closed down 1.3%.

Both companies reported negative free cash flow for the second quarter with Google raising its capital expenditure forecast for 2026 to a range of $195-$205 billion and announcing even higher spending estimates for 2027. Google's prior estimate for capex was a range of $180-$190 billion.

Google CEO Sundar Pichai said the spending increase "is primarily due to an acceleration in the delivery of capacity to meet growing demand." Google continues to emphasize they do not have the compute power necessary to meet the increasing demand.

Meanwhile, Tesla CEO Elon Musk tried to convince investors that the Return-On-Investment (ROI) on the company's spending are on the way, "This is a massive capex year. I’m confident that all the things that we’re investing in will yield incredible returns. Really, maybe the best capex returns that we’ve ever seen."

Musk elaborated and claimed the company’s future initiatives around semiconductor production and Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot, would be yielding new revenue paths very soon. Tesla is "installing the first-generation lines for Optimus," and will "start production soon," according to its earnings presentation.

Clearly, investors and the rest of the market are not happy with this spending with Alphabet down -6% and Tesla more than -12% on the open Thursday morning.

Oil over $100 finally made the stock market remember the war

After weeks of stocks rallying without any concern about the ongoing Iran War, stocks fell on Thursday after Brent Crude oil rose above $100 per barrel again, causing the market to realize once more that high energy prices are not a good thing for the global economy, reported CNBC.

Despite the United States launching air strikes against Iran for nearly two weeks, the stock market acted like everything was just fine despite the price of oil skyrocketing and the Treasury market falling as yields rose. On Thursday, the market finally woke up when Brent Crude made its way into triple digits once more with the return on the 10-year Treasury hitting 4.7% - the highest level since January 2025.

"These problems became too big to ignore," said Steve Sosnick, Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers. "It’s too hard to ignore $100 oil. It’s too hard to ignore 10-year rates that are above 4.70%. It’s too hard for the stock market to ignore 30-year rates that are solidly above 5%."

The markets closed with the S&P 500 down -1.21% and the Nasdaq down -2.15%.

Next Week's Gameplan

We're back to getting decent datapoints next week with durable goods orders released on Monday; retail inventories and consumer confidence on Tuesday; and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index - the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation - on Thursday.

Of course, the market will be putting the biggest priority on the Fed Chair interest rate decision on Wednesday with Chair Kevin Warsh's second meeting. The Fed is expected to once again leave interest rates alone, but the market will be listening to closely to what Warsh says - or, more importantly, what he doesn't say - during Wednesday' press conference following the FOMC press release.

Pile this into a very busy earnings week with my following positions reporting:

Tuesday: Boeing (BA) reports Before Market Open (BMO). Logitech (LOGI), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), Tilray Brands (TLRY), Visa (V), and Waste Management (WM) report After Market Close (AMC):

Wednesday: Lemonade (LMND) and SoFi Technologies (SOFI) report BMO. Arm Holdings (ARM), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Robinhood (HOOD) report AMC.

Thursday: Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Coinbase (COIN), Roblox (RBLX), and Rivian (RIVN) report AMC.

Friday: Cameco (CCJ) and Chevron (CVX) report BMO.

So, next week certainly promises to be incredibly busy and that's just with the news we know is coming. Join me back here next Friday to go over all the market's moves with me, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Let’s not bury the lead, with Bitcoin making new weekly-highs and showing constructive price action, the Bull Cases are roaring across social media. Some excited Bulls are even pulling ridiculous six-month candle charts and claiming that two red/down six-month candles in a row show that Bitcoin will reverse course.

This.

This is why people refer to technical analysis as “astrology for traders.”

Let’s forget about the fact that Bitcoin only has ~30 six-month candles in its entire history, solely looking at the charts takes no account for geopolitical or market-wide concerns… of which there are many.

While It is true that Bitcoin could rally quite a bit higher with the 200-Day Exponential-Moving Average (EMA) currently just under $74K, historical precedent still indicates there’s one more significant downside flush before Bitcoin has bottomed for this cycle.

In past Crypto Winters, Bitcoin has seen significant rallies before rolling over and crashing to new lows:

In 2018, Bitcoin rallied +45% from under $5,850 to $8,500 before rolling over and selling off more than -63% down to $3,120.

In 2022, Bitcoin rallied +46% from $32,940 to $48,200 before rolling over and selling off -68% down to $15,470.

If Bitcoin follows a similar pattern to 2018 and 2022 - and we have no reason to think it wouldn’t - we could see a rally to $8K-$85K from here.

HOWEVER…

if Bitcoin continues to follow that same pattern as it has in every single Crypto Winter before this one - and, once again, we have no reason to think it won’t - it could roll over and sell off to $26,560-$30,710 after it finishes that epic rally.

The key technical levels to watch come in the Weekly timeframe where, historically, Bitcoin has needed the 150-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA) to come down so it can contend with it - first as resistance and, then, as support. In the past, Bitcoin’s first attempt to flip the 150W SMA is rejected followed by a decent pullback (10-20%) before Bitcoin is able to turn the 150W SMA from resistance into support.

Here’s the thing: the 150W SMA is still trading at $85K. In other words, there could be a significant amount of time - and further downside - before this Crypto Winter has ended.

What would make me think Bitcoin has bottomed for this cycle?

I need to see Bitcoin rally above the 150W SMA and then retest it for support. If Bitcoin can flip that key moving average from resistance into support, that could very well indicate that Bitcoin is headed for a new bull market.

As always, I’d like to be optimistic and it’s always possible this time is different and Bitcoin has bottomed, but, unfortunately, there’s nothing in the charts or the historical analysis that indicates the Bulls are correct - this Crypto Winter likely isn’t over, yet.

Bitcoin Trade Update

Premium subscribers to Get Irked get access to all the moves I've made in my Bitcoin trade over the past week as well as my next thirty (30) ... yes, 30 ... buys in Bitcoin including price levels, quantities, and a full layout of my ongoing long-term trade in the world's biggest crypto.

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto...

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin's price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.
• In July 2026, Bitcoin dropped -54% to a low of $57,717.55.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

The only reason I speculate in the cryptocurrency space is I truly believe Bitcoin isn’t headed to zero.

I am prepared for that possibility, however, by knowing I could potentially lose all of the capital I’ve allocated to this speculative investment. Professional advisers recommend speculating with no more than 5% of an investor’s overall assets. Personally, I’ve allocated less than that to speculating in crypto.

I feel that anyone who doesn’t fully believe in the long-term viability of cryptocurrency would be better served not speculating in the space.

On a good day, this asset class isn’t suitable for those with weak stomachs. On volatile days, the sector can induce nausea in the most iron-willed speculator. If a speculator isn’t confident in the space, the moves will cause mistakes to be made.

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.

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Studies show that economic recessions cause an increase in suicide, especially when combined with thoughts of loneliness and anxiety.

If you or someone you know are having thoughts of suicide or self-harm, please contact the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline by visiting www.suicidepreventionlifeline.org or calling 1-800-273-TALK.

The hotline is open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.