Summing Up The Week

While the interim peace deal between the United States and Iran initially took center stage in the stock market on Monday, the story quickly changed following the Federal Reserve's monthly meeting on Wednesday.

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh laid out his plan for the Federal Reserve with a particular focus on the Fed being less transparent and more thoughtful about how the committee approaches the markets. While that might be the right decision in the long-term, stocks sold off precipitously following his press conference as the markets prefer stability and predictability; without the Fed's constant communication, there will be less for investors to rely on.

The markets returned to rallying on Thursday, the last trading day of the week due to Friday’s Juneteenth Holiday, as Trump plans to sign the interim deal on Friday much to the dismay of critics who believe the U.S. is making too many concessions for Iran.

Let's take a deeper dive into the news that moved markets this week...

Market News

U.S., Iran reach peace deal to be signed Friday

On Sunday, the U.S. and Iran reached a peace deal to end the war in the Middle East according to Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, reported CNBC. Both sides declared the immediate and termination of military operations on all fronts, according to Sharif. "Following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the Peace Deal between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED," Sharif said in a post on X. “The official signing ceremony will be on Friday, 19 June in Switzerland.”

"The deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete," U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed the deal through a post on Truth Social, "I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade."

Iran state media included a banner on its television broadcast stating the United States was  "forced to sign an agreement to end the war," according to the Associated Press. 

Despite having rallied substantially anticipating a peace deal toward the end of last week, the stock market popped ferociously during extended-hours trading Sunday afternoon with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq heading into Monday's open up more than +1.30% and +2.15%, respectively.

Fed holds rates steady; removes cutting bias from statement

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced it would be holding the benchmark interest rate steady while also removing the bias toward future cuts from its statement with many members projecting hikes for later this year, reported CNBC. 

This meeting was the first for Kevin Warsh as the new Chair of the FOMC, and he chose to abstain from making a 2026 rate projection. “It’s been the practice of this committee for participants to submit these projections, and I have encouraged my colleagues to continue to do so,” he said during the press conference following the meeting. “I, however, have refrained from offering any projections of my own, consistent with my long-held views on the SEP, at least as currently structured.”

Nine of the 18 officials projected that the benchmark rate would finish 2026 above its current 3.5%-3.75% range indicating that the Fed will likely hike the benchmark interest rate at least once at some point this year.

Warsh has long-believed that the Fed needs to say less and return to Alan Greenspan's era where the then-chair regularly spoke in riddles in an effort to prevent the market from reading too much into the Fed's action, famously saying to the Senate during a 1987 hearing, "If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have misunderstood what I said."

During the press conference Chair Warsh also announced five task forces to examine and overhaul operations at the Fed. With Warsh believing the Fed needs to interfere less with the economy, many expect Warsh to push for the institution to reduce its balance sheet and stop making direct effects on the U.S. economy; a move that many free market believers strongly support.

Trump's interim peace deal criticized for favoring Iran

On Thursday, analysts criticized President Trump's interim peace deal with Iran for favoring Tehran with many concessions made to Iran, causing Trump to hit back from the G7 conference in France, reported CNBC. The deal sees both sides commit to further talks to reach a final agreement over the next 60 days and includes a $300 billion plan for Iran’s reconstruction as well as the removal of "all types" of U.S. sanctions against the Islamic Republic.

On Thursday, Trump lashed out on TruthSocial, "These fools, who think I haven’t been tough enough on Iran, when the Stock Market Just Hit A RECORD HIGH, and Oil prices are 'tumbling' down, are either jealous, bad people, or stupid."

Meanwhile, Iranian leaders have portrayed the deal as a strategic victory with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian describing the memorandum of understanding (MoU) as an opportunity to tackle Iran’s economic and political problems, saying it could help to create "a different world" in Iran and the Middle East.

Next Week's Gameplan

A full trading week returns next week with a full slate of economic datapoints, too. The S&P flash services and manufacturing PMIs come out on Tuesday followed by new home sales on Wednesday. The big datapoint comes Wednesday with the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for May, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation. We'll also receive durable-goods orders on Thursday followed by advanced retail inventories on Friday.

Pile onto all of that data the signing (or not) of the U.S.-Iran peace deal this Friday and all the questions surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and we've definitely got yet another exciting week ahead of us to meet and talk about here next week, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

This week's Crypto Corner won't be released until Friday, June 19. Accordingly, you will be able to receive it or view it on my substack: https://getirked.substack.com.

Bitcoin Trade Update

Premium subscribers to Get Irked get access to all the moves I've made in my Bitcoin trade over the past week as well as my next thirty (30) ... yes, 30 ... buys in Bitcoin including price levels, quantities, and a full layout of my ongoing long-term trade in the world's biggest crypto.

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto...

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges - Gemini and Coinbase - in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin's price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.
• In February 2026, Bitcoin dropped -53% to a low of $60,001.00.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

The only reason I speculate in the cryptocurrency space is I truly believe Bitcoin isn’t headed to zero.

I am prepared for that possibility, however, by knowing I could potentially lose all of the capital I’ve allocated to this speculative investment. Professional advisers recommend speculating with no more than 5% of an investor’s overall assets. Personally, I’ve allocated less than that to speculating in crypto.

I feel that anyone who doesn’t fully believe in the long-term viability of cryptocurrency would be better served not speculating in the space.

On a good day, this asset class isn’t suitable for those with weak stomachs. On volatile days, the sector can induce nausea in the most iron-willed speculator. If a speculator isn’t confident in the space, the moves will cause mistakes to be made.

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.

Suicide Hotline - You Are Not Alone

Studies show that economic recessions cause an increase in suicide, especially when combined with thoughts of loneliness and anxiety.

If you or someone you know are having thoughts of suicide or self-harm, please contact the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline by visiting www.suicidepreventionlifeline.org or calling 1-800-273-TALK.

The hotline is open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.