Summing Up The Week

Despite the geopolitical mess in Iran and reports of increasing inflation, this week was all about Friday's SpaceX (SPCX) IPO where the most anticipated stock of the last decade would begin trading publicly at a nosebleed $1.77 trillion valuation. That being said, the price action throughout the week leading up to the IPO was far from smooth sailing with some pretty intense volatility flip-flopping stocks on a near-daily basis.

Let's take a deep dive into the news that moved the markets this week...

Market News

Iran fires on Israel, breaking ceasefire

When it rains, it pours for the market. As if inflation and a red-hot economy causing yields to spike and stocks to drop last Friday wasn't enough, Iran broke the ceasefire and fired missiles at Israel, reported CNBC. President Donald Trump's response to the attack on Fox News was that such attacks are "certainly not going to help negotiations."

With the ceasefire almost certainly in doubt, the stock market sold off further in after-hours trading after markets reopened on Sunday evening.

Trump announces in final negotiations with Iran

On Monday, Iran announced the "end of military operations against Israel while warning Lebanon strikes could trigger escalation (CNBC) while, separately, President Trump announced on TruthSocial that he was working toward a "final deal" with Iran. The futures markets - which had been deep in the red on Sunday evening - flipped into the green Monday, further evidence of the extreme volatility that has been and will continue to influence market actions as we move through this year.

Trump claims Iran deal in "two to three days" with Strait of Hormuz reopening "immediately"

On Tuesday, President Trump doubled-down on his claims that the U.S. was in final negotiations with Iran, claiming a deal to end the war could be achieved in "two or three days" and that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen "immediately," reported CNBC.

Trump also claimed the two parties are in the final stages of a "very, very good deal that will not in any way allow nuclear weapons."

It's important to remember that Iran has never had nuclear weapons or a nuclear weapons program, per se. Iran is what nuclear experts refer to as a "threshold state." The country has enriched uranium to such a point that it is on the verge of having nuclear matter capable of being made into a weapon. The "threshold state" status is essentially 99% of the way to having a nuclear weapon program without having to designate the country as actually having nuclear weapons or a program.

Unless Trump makes a deal which pulls the existing enriched uranium out of Iran, we're back where we were before the war started; Iran with enriched uranium which needs just a little more work to being made into nuclear-weapon capable material at which point the process of creating bombs or intercontinental missiles capable of delivering a nuclear payload is relatively simple (comparative to the process of enriching the uranium in the first place, that is).

Said another way, nuclear experts believe any deal where Iran keeps its uranium should be considered a total failure and not a successful operation for the administration.

Iran shoots down U.S. helicopter, U.S. must "respond" says Trump

Later on Tuesday, an American Apache helicopter was shot down while patrolling the Strait of Hormuz resulting in Trump accusing Iran of the incident and saying the U.S. "must, of necessity, respond to this attack," reported CNBC. Thankfully, both American pilots involved in the attack were "safe and uninjured" according to a post Trump made on TruthSocial.

Trump did not describe the U.S. response which prompted conjecture as, in private, the President has said he would not disregard the ceasefire unless American troops were killed. However, his post on Tuesday certainly signals that the already-fragile ceasefire is being significantly tested.

While Iran did not claim responsibility for the incident, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made an ominous threat in a post on X, "To reduce risk, best solution is for them [all foreign forces] to leave; we prefer the language of diplomacy but speak other languages too."

The incident caused the market to resume the selloff from the prior week with the S&P down more than 1% and the Nasdaq down more than 2% in intraday trading.

Trump says Iran will "pay the price" for having "taken too long" to deal

The Iran situation went from bad to worse on Wednesday when President Trump posted that Iran would "pay the price" for having "taken too long" to agree to a deal, threatening additional strikes on civilian power plants and infrastructure, reported CNBC. "Iran’s Military is a complete and total mess," the President said in a post on Truth Social. "Much of it, like their Navy and Air Force, doesn’t even exist anymore - They have been completely defeated. Iran is all talk and no action."

Trump went on to point out how effective the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been, chastising the media for not reporting how “EFFECTIVE the U.S. Naval BLOCKADE is, the most successful Blockade in the history of Naval Warfare." He added: "NOTHING GETS THROUGH unless we want it to. IT IS A STEEL WALL! Iran is doing ZERO business, not paying their military, or any of their bills, and quickly becoming a FAILED NATION! Lots of oil is getting out. Praise be to Allah!"

This rapid change in posture came just a day after Trump said that a deal could be reached in "two or three days" and that the critical Strait of Hormuz would reopen "immediately" after such a deal. 

The markets, which had been awaiting the Consumer Price Index report on the state of inflation, sold off into the open prior to its release on the back of the escalation in Iran.

On Friday, the situation worsened when Iran leaked details of a peace deal which caused Trump to accuse Iranians of being “dishonorable” in a post he made on TruthSocial.

Consumer prices rose 4.2% annually in May, highest in 3 years

On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed prices skyrocketed 4.2% on a year-over-year basis in May, the highest rate of increase since April 2023, reported CNBC. Despite the high rate, the figure was in-line with expectations from Dow Jones economists who anticipated both the annual rate at 4.2% as well as the 0.5% monthly rate.

The report indicated that much of the inflation surge came from a 3.9% jump in energy prices, putting the 12-month increase at 23.5%. Food accelerated just 0.2% and shelter costs, a key input for Fed policy, rose 0.3%, half the gain of April.

With the U.S. seeming to increase hostilities with Iran, pundits warn that the surge in oil prices could spread to other parts of the economy since almost every aspect of the economy relies on the cost of energy.

Wholesale prices rose 1.1% in May, more than expected

On Thursday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed prices for companies rose 1.1% on the month in May putting the annual inflation rate at 6.5% when economists had been looking at a monthly increase of 0.7%, reported CNBC. The annual inflation rate is now at the highest since November 2022 thanks to surging energy costs.

Even removing food, energy and trade services - the most volatile of the included costs - the PPI still accelerated 0.8%, its biggest one-month move since March 2022. On a 12-month basis, the core excluding trade services rose 5.1%, the most since October 2022.

What makes the PPI figure particularly concerning is how it is a leading indicator as producers will often pass down these increasing costs to consumers in coming weeks and months.

Despite the clearly negative news, stocks rebounded on the open on Thursday trading, likely an oversold relief rally as Wednesday's market closed at the lows.

SpaceX (SPCX) goes public!

On Friday, SpaceX (SPCX), the biggest IPO in history, opened in public markets at around 11:45 a.m Eastern Time, reported CNBC. The IPO was priced at $135.00 which gave SpaceX a market capitalization of $1.75 trillion - an enormous company by any measure and the largest IPO in the history of the stock market. Its stock initially opened at $150.05, dipped to a low of $149.80, and rallied to a high of $176.52, a more than +30% from its IPO price and a very good showing without being too good.

Market analysts were closely watching SpaceX for signs of the market's health and, potentially, overexuberance. Had SPCX rallied too much, it could have been a sign of significant froth, however if SPCX had sold down to its IPO price or lower, it might have been the catalyst for a marketwide pullback.

A +30% pop is a bit higher than average 2025 gain of +25% which IPOs saw over the course of last year, but with the amount of anticipation over SpaceX's IPO, this came as no surprise. I chose to sit this one out as SpaceX's extremely lofty valuation combined with the typical price of action of any IPO made me a little gun shy, although I do intend to add it to my portfolio at some point in the coming months.

Next Week's Gameplan

Next week's big news is Wednesday's first Federal Reserve meeting with newly-appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. While expectations are for a fairly non-news meeting with the Fed voting unanimously to leave rates unchanged to show support for the new Chair, the prediction markets have been pricing in the possibility for dissents, particularly since the last meeting saw a multi-decade record of four governors dissenting.

We also receive a series of economic datapoints including the Empire State manufacturing survey on Monday; housing starts on Tuesday; and a lot of real estate and home data on Wednesday.

Throw in all of the geopolitical tensions thanks to the escalating Iran War and just a bit more to make the market even more volatile, next week is a shortened trading week with stocks not trading on Friday to observe the Juneteenth Holiday.

So, join me here next THURSDAY to go over all the news that moved the markets, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

It didn’t take Bitcoin to prove me right about the bottom not being in for this Crypto Winter. Shortly after last week’s update, Bitcoin broke below the $60,001.00 cycle low to create a new low at $59,073.01, just above key support at $58,363.90. Bitcoin’s bounce was far from inspiring as the crypto couldn’t even rally to $65,000, finding resistance at $64,234.45 on Sunday before rolling over once again.

The levels are even more precarious now. If the current low doesn’t hold, it’s virtually certain that $58,363.90 will crack which means we’re looking at support from back in September 2024, a range between $52,530.00-$53,499.90. After that? We’ve got key support at $49,050.01 from the low of Japanese Yen Carry Crisis in August 2024 before we see freefall down to $38,501.00-$40,625.68, the lows after the Bitcoin ETFs launched in early 2024.

The Bullish Case

Bulls are trying to regain some optimism by suggesting that Bitcoin’s recovery above $60K is promising and indicates buying behavior. Naturally, these Bulls also point to Strategy’s (MSTR) purchase of Bitcoin to make up for its sale earlier in the month as bullish. However, it’s worth noting that Strategy’s purchase made almost no effect on the price action.

The Bearish Case

Bears point to summer 2018 where Bitcoin briefly broke below the $6K mark and recovered as an analog for the current price action. The loss of support at that key level was a forward-indicator that further downside was in store and it certainly was with Bitcoin crashing from $6K-$7K down to a low around $3150 by December 2018.

I concur with the Bears. This break of $60K support felt eerily similar to the break of $6K in 2018 for me. Back then, I was with the Bulls and I chose to ignore that key break of support only to have Bitcoin collapse a few months later.

Will Bitcoin repeat that price action and crash to $31K?

As always, my approach to this market is to rely on past precedent. While I continue to make small-quantity buys even at these levels, I am preserving the majority of my sidelined white powder with the assumption that the lows for this Crypto Winter are far from in.

Bitcoin Trade Update

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto...

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges - Gemini and Coinbase - in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin's price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.
• In February 2026, Bitcoin dropped -53% to a low of $60,001.00.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

The only reason I speculate in the cryptocurrency space is I truly believe Bitcoin isn’t headed to zero.

I am prepared for that possibility, however, by knowing I could potentially lose all of the capital I’ve allocated to this speculative investment. Professional advisers recommend speculating with no more than 5% of an investor’s overall assets. Personally, I’ve allocated less than that to speculating in crypto.

I feel that anyone who doesn’t fully believe in the long-term viability of cryptocurrency would be better served not speculating in the space.

On a good day, this asset class isn’t suitable for those with weak stomachs. On volatile days, the sector can induce nausea in the most iron-willed speculator. If a speculator isn’t confident in the space, the moves will cause mistakes to be made.

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.

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Studies show that economic recessions cause an increase in suicide, especially when combined with thoughts of loneliness and anxiety.

If you or someone you know are having thoughts of suicide or self-harm, please contact the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline by visiting www.suicidepreventionlifeline.org or calling 1-800-273-TALK.

The hotline is open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.