Summing Up The Week

May’s economic data hit the tape like a one‑two punch this week with payrolls coming in hotter across the board just as SpaceX (SPCX) prepares to launch the biggest IPO in history. ADP and BLS both showed surprising strength in hiring as the job market sees broad and accelerating increases potentially signaling an economy that refuses to cool, just while the Fed’s inflation headache grows louder.

Layer on SpaceX’s freshly approved $135 IPO price and $1.77T valuation, and markets suddenly find themselves juggling red‑hot labor momentum, a monster listing, and rising rate fears all at once.

No surprise: volatility is back on center stage.

Let's take a deeper dive into the news that moved markets this week...

Market News

ADP Payrolls grew 122K in May, stronger than expected

On Wednesday, private payroll processor ADP said companies added 122,000 jobs in May, up from 105,000 in April and better than the Dow Jones estimate for 110,000, reported CNBC. Education and health services remain the sectors adding the most jobs at 57,000 new hires, however trade, transportation, and utilities added 36,000 which could potentially be a sign of increasing breadth in the economy.

Pundits also noted the breadth in sectors adding new jobs. "Hiring was more broad-based in May than we’ve seen in the last few years," said ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson. "The labor market continues to show sustained momentum going into the summer hiring season."

SpaceX targets $135 IPO price at $1.77T valuation

On Wednesday evening, the Securities and Exchange commission approved SpaceX's (SPCX) plan to IPO on Friday, June 12 with a price of $135 per share and a valuation of $1.77 trillion, reported CNBC.

SpaceX said it plans to sell 555.6 million shares, which would amount to a $75 billion fundraise. The underwriters have an option to purchase an additional 83.33 million shares at the IPO price, amounting to $11.2 billion. Musk will own over 82% voting control after the offering, according to the filing.

At $135 per share, SpaceX will have the valuation of the seventh-largest company in the United States by market cap, ironically putting it above Tesla (TSLA), CEO Elon Musk's other publicly-traded company.

With Musk aiming to provide 30%+ of the IPO to the general public, Friday's price action will be volatile, to say the least. Typically, a newly-listed company places the majority of its IPO with institutional buyers and firms which will hang on to the stock for the long term whereas the general public is known to have "weak hands" and immediately flip the shares on the first day to lock in gains at the pop.

We'll have to wait to see what happens when this mammoth IPO starts trading sometime next Friday; I'll certainly have my popcorn ready.

U.S. payrolls rose 172K in May, more than doubling expectations

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) jobs report surprised to the upside with May adding 172,000 and blowing away estimates for 80,000, reported CNBC. While on the surface this seems like good news, the labor market indicates that the U.S. economy is red hot, and, when combined with the wave of inflation on its way thanks to rising oil prices, this means the Federal Reserve is likely to need to hike interest rates rather than cut them as the market (and President Donald Trump) would prefer.

As a result, the market reeled a bit on Friday with the S&P 500 selling off more than 1% and the Nasdaq down nearly 2% at the open.

Next Week's Gameplan

Earnings season is finally behind us - for at least a few weeks until JP Morgan (JPM) kicks off the next round on July 14, so the news we'll be looking for will be coming in the form of datapoints and anything coming out of the Middle East.

Next week starts bringing the inflation data with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. Both reports will likely show an increase in the rate of inflation thanks to the ongoing Iran War and the never-ending skyrocketing oil prices dragging on the consumer. Speaking of the consumer, we'll also get the first round of consumer sentiment numbers on Friday, although no one is expecting much of a change thanks to the dour outlook.

OH YEAH! And, let's not bury the lead! The SpaceX (SPCX) IPO is scheduled for next Friday, too, and that almost guarantees volatility throughout the markets that day!

So, hang on to your hats, everybody, and I'll met you back here next Friday, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

As I warned last week (and have been warning for months now), the current Crypto Winter is far from done and Bitcoin’s breakdown over the past week just reinforced that concept. The break started Monday morning when Bitcoin broke down through last week’s low at $72,445.11.

With that key support broken, it didn’t take long for the Bears to swarm and cause the price of Bitcoin to wash out completely with the crypto breaking all levels of past support including: $70,532.00; 66,600.00; $64,938.66; and $62,534.91 before finding a bottom at $61,082.33 on Friday.

I zoomed the chart out to include a timeframe all the way back to August 2024 to show the next potential levels of support. Of course, we’ve got round-number psychological support at the key $60,001.00 mark - January’s bottom - followed by $58,863.90 from October 2024; $52,530.00 from September 2024; and $49,950.01, the swoon in August 2024 following the Japanese Yen Carry Fiasco.

On the upside, there’s not much to speak of as Bitcoin made an anemic lower weekly-high at $74,159.59 on Sunday - much lower than last week’s $78,015.46 - before rolling over and collapsing for the rest of the week.

The Bullish Case

Bulls are giving up.

It’s true.

Many long-time believers in Bitcoin are posting all over X that they are “rage-quitting,” (a video-gamer term referring to getting so frustrated with the difficulty of a game that the gamer throws their keyboard and quits in disgust, now co-opted by Tom Lee for crypto). These Bulls claim they’re selling all of their Bitcoin with others still saying they’re even taking a break from X.

Add onto that surveys all over X and other social media asking if everyone thinks Bitcoin is dead, and suddenly I’m feeling a little bullish.

Wait… what? How in the $#!% is that bullish?!

Over the several Crypto Winters I’ve been in, this is what you need to see to start indicating a bottom is in place - capitulation by the Bulls. The Bulls need to give up. Sentiment needs to reach a point where Bitcoin seems dead and likely to never recover.

Of course, I don’t think we’re close to the bottom of the Crypto Winter yet, but I see this “Quitting of the Bulls” as a sign that the seeds are starting to be planted for the next Bull Market. Granted, it will take some time for those seeds to take root, but there are few things more Bullish to me than seeing complete desperation in the Bull camp.

The Bearish Case

Bears are taking a rightly-deserved victory lap. As we’ve been pointing out since Bitcoin collapsed in January, Crypto Winters don’t end with a whimper and it takes more than one quick selloff to clear out the exuberance. While Bitcoin seems to be stabilizing for the moment, Bears warn that this is likely just the beginning of a bigger drawdown.

I will continue to sound like a broken record and say that a -52.50% selloff from an all-time high would be the absolute shallowest Crypto Winter in the history of Bitcoin by a factor of more than 50%. While it is certainly “possible” that Bitcoin has bottomed, the likelihood is so small that I’m only willing to put a little less than 20% of my allocation to work right now.

With the shallowest Crypto Winter to date being 2022’s with a -77.59% peak-to-trough crash, I believe a break of $50K - at least - is in the cards for this round before we’ll be able to start bottom-fishing.

Bitcoin Trade Update

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto...

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges - Gemini and Coinbase - in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin's price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.
• In February 2026, Bitcoin dropped -53% to a low of $60,001.00.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

The only reason I speculate in the cryptocurrency space is I truly believe Bitcoin isn’t headed to zero.

I am prepared for that possibility, however, by knowing I could potentially lose all of the capital I’ve allocated to this speculative investment. Professional advisers recommend speculating with no more than 5% of an investor’s overall assets. Personally, I’ve allocated less than that to speculating in crypto.

I feel that anyone who doesn’t fully believe in the long-term viability of cryptocurrency would be better served not speculating in the space.

On a good day, this asset class isn’t suitable for those with weak stomachs. On volatile days, the sector can induce nausea in the most iron-willed speculator. If a speculator isn’t confident in the space, the moves will cause mistakes to be made.

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.

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