Summing Up The Week

A week that should have rattled markets instead turned into an upside‑down rally, as investors shrugged off fresh warnings from the Federal Reserve, a mediocre reaction to Nvidia (NVDA) despite blockbuster earnings, and only the faintest glimmers of progress in U.S.–Iran peace talks.

The FOMC minutes for May revealed growing support for a potential rate hike if inflation refuses to cool, yet stocks ripped higher anyway. Nvidia delivered another monster quarter but couldn’t escape after‑hours turbulence. And on the geopolitical front, Washington and Tehran inched toward diplomacy while still clashing over uranium and Iran’s proposed toll‑bridge shipping model.

In a market that keeps rewriting the rules, traders once again chose optimism over obstacles. Let's take a deeper dive into the news that moved markets this week...

Market News

FOMC members warn of need for rate hike

On Wednesday, the minutes for the Federal Reserve's May meeting showed many of the governors believe a hike would be in order if inflation persistently runs above their target for 2%, reported The Orange County Register. 

In regards to the possibility of rate hikes, "many participants indicated that they would have preferred removing the language from the post-meeting statement that suggested an easing bias regarding the likely direction of the committee’s future interest rate decisions,” showed the minutes.

Additionally, "The vast majority of participants noted an increased risk that inflation would take longer to return to the committee’s 2% objective than they had previously expected."

Despite the obviously dour news of a potential rate hike, stocks rallied substantially with the S&P 500 finishing the day up +1.08% and the Nasdaq up +15.45.

Nvidia beats on earnings, revenue, guidance, but sells off anyway

On Wednesday, Nvidia (NVDA) beat on earnings and guidance during its report, but the stock sold off in after-hours trading anyway, reported CNBC. Nvidia beat on earnings per share returning $1.87 versus estimates for $1.76 plus beat on revenue by nearly $3 billion finishing the quarter at $81.62 billion versus the $78.86 billion estiamted.

Analysts suggested the stock's disappointing reaction could be related to Nvidia's inability to substantially increase sales in China, yet. Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management told CNBC’s “Closing Bell Overtime” that Nvidia’s revenue acceleration this quarter was “remarkable,” although he notes it’s still “working through some of the noise” when it comes to sales in China.

U.S. and Iran signal slow progress toward peace

On Thursday, both the United States and Iran signaled progress in talks to bring an end to the Iran War, however the two remain conflicted over Iran's enriched uranium, reported CNBC.

U.S. officials also point to Iran's "toll-bridge model" of charging each ship a passage fee will not be permitted going forward. "No one in the world is in favor of a tolling system. It can’t happen [and] it would be unacceptable," said U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in a press conference in Miami. "If we can’t get a good deal, the president’s been clear he has other options."

Rubio's comments came shortly after Iran said the latest proposal from the U.S. had brought the two warring sides closer to a peace deal. The latest U.S. proposal “has narrowed the gaps to some extent,” according to Iranian Students’ News Agency which said "further reductions require an end to the temptation for war from Washington."

Next Week's Gameplan

Next week brings a shortened trading-week thanks to Monday's Memorial Day holiday but that doesn't mean it's going to be a quiet one. On Tuesday, we get May's Consumer Confidence numbers followed by durable-goods orders on Thursday. Then, on Friday, we get a smattering of a big datapoints including the second revision of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q1 and, more importantly, the Personal Consumption Expenditures  (PCE) Index for April.

With oil prices continuing to surge, the PCE - which is the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation - is expected to show a good-sized pop as consumers have to reach deeper into their pockets to fill up their gas tanks. However, if the PCE comes in higher (or lower) than expected, those numbers could have a profound impact on which direction the market wants to go.

Plus, earnings season still isn't done with us, yet. Here are my position reports I'll be watching next week:

Wednesday: Salesforce (CRM) and Snowflake (SNOW) report After Market Close (AMC).
Thursday: UiPath (PATH) reports AMC.
Friday: Canopy Growth Corporation (CGC) reports Before Market Open (BMO).

As a result, the situation for next week remains the same as it's been for much of 2026: expect a lot of potential volatility just from the news we know is coming, and prepare for the possibility of mean more from the unknown unknowns!

But, as always, remember you can return back here next Friday so we can go over the market-moving news events together, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Let’s cut to the chase. Here’s how Crypto Winters have worked every single time in the past:

• Every single time Bitcoin’s sold off -52% or more from its most recent all-time high, the selloff signaled the start of a Crypto Winter.

• Every single time Bitcoin’s been in a Crypto Winter, it rallies +35% or more from that initial selloff low to test the 200-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

• Every single time Bitcoin’s tested the 200-Day SMA after a Crypto Winter starts, it’s unable to turn the resistance into support. Sometimes, Bitcoin rallies quite a bit above the 200-Day SMA before pulling back to test it and failing, and, sometimes, Bitcoin tests the 200-Day SMA and is unable to even break through the resistance even once.

• After failing the 200-Day SMA, Bitcoin begins to seek it true bottom. Over the course of 35-50 days following the SMA failure, Bitcoin sells off. The true bottom is typically between -50%-70% from where the 200-Day SMA was at the time of failure (either as support or failure to break through).

Over the past few months, I’ve mentioned my concern over the current Crypto Winter and, last week, I even used fractal analysis (which I hate and typically distrust) to show how the price action of the current Crypto Winter is remarkably similar to 2022’s Crypto Winter.

And, oh yeah, 2022’s Crypto Winter’s price action was, fractally-speaking, remarkably similar to 2018’s Crypto Winter which I posted about on X in October 2022 and warned we might be headed lower. Then, a few weeks later, Bitcoin started its -67.90% crash from the test of the 200-Day SMA at $48,200.00 to its low at $15,470.50.

Get Ready for the Punchline…

So, where is Bitcoin in the cycle now?

Well, Bitcoin just finished rallying +36.84% off its current low at $60,500.00 on Kraken (-52.06% from the all-time high at $126,198.10) to test the 200-Day SMA at $82,790.90 before failing to break through resistance.

So, has the clock started?
Do we have a month or two left before Bitcoin bottoms for this Crypto Winter?
And, will that bottom be at $40,500 or lower?

Nothing is written in stone.

Just because this has happened before doesn’t mean it will happen again which is why I already have a nearly 20% allocation in Bitcoin. I want some exposure just in case … wait for it… this time is different.

However, as a student of the markets for nearly 30 years, a survivor of 2-1/2 Crypto Winters, and a professional statistician, I will say this: I never, EVER bet big on the concept that “this time is different.”

Every time there’s been a new fad, a new investing trend, or an explosion in a sector (*cough* AI *cough*) a contingent of analysts will claim that everything’s changed, this time the trend is different, and we won’t see the boom-bust cycle we’ve always seen dozens if not hundreds of time before.

… and then the bust happens.

Eventually, I do believe we’ll see a case of “this time is different” play out in the markets. Maybe it will be AI that doesn’t bust. Maybe Bitcoin’s Crypto Winter is truly over and we’re headed for higher.

It’s absolutely possible this time is different.

… just don’t bet the farm on it!

The Bullish Case

Bulls truly believe the Crypto Winter is done and the bottom is in. While they acknowledge that Bitcoin failed to break through the resistance presented by the 200-Day Simple Moving Average, they believe the current pullback represents buyers building up strength to make another stab at the SMA.

The Bearish Case

Bears continue to argue that the Crypto Winter is far from down and that Bitcoin will eventually head to lower lows. And who can argue them? All the relevant historical data supports the Bearish argument that we need to prepare for much lows with a bottom not happening until $40K or lower within the next few months. Sure, the Bears could be wrong, but history is on their side this time.

Bitcoin Trade Update

Premium subscribers to Get Irked get access to all the moves I've made in my Bitcoin trade over the past week as well as my next thirty (30) ... yes, 30 ... buys in Bitcoin including price levels, quantities, and a full layout of my ongoing long-term trade in the world's biggest crypto.

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto...

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges - Gemini and Coinbase - in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin's price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.
• In February 2026, Bitcoin dropped -53% to a low of $60,001.00.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

The only reason I speculate in the cryptocurrency space is I truly believe Bitcoin isn’t headed to zero.

I am prepared for that possibility, however, by knowing I could potentially lose all of the capital I’ve allocated to this speculative investment. Professional advisers recommend speculating with no more than 5% of an investor’s overall assets. Personally, I’ve allocated less than that to speculating in crypto.

I feel that anyone who doesn’t fully believe in the long-term viability of cryptocurrency would be better served not speculating in the space.

On a good day, this asset class isn’t suitable for those with weak stomachs. On volatile days, the sector can induce nausea in the most iron-willed speculator. If a speculator isn’t confident in the space, the moves will cause mistakes to be made.

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.

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Studies show that economic recessions cause an increase in suicide, especially when combined with thoughts of loneliness and anxiety.

If you or someone you know are having thoughts of suicide or self-harm, please contact the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline by visiting www.suicidepreventionlifeline.org or calling 1-800-273-TALK.

The hotline is open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.