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Pandemic Portfolio: Update #24

This is an update to a series. See Starting a Portfolio from Scratch to learn how it started.

New Year’s Resolution – Even MORE Aggressive

While the Pandemic Portfolio did well in 2021, bringing in a +14.893% return over the course of the year, the fact that the majority of the portfolio remains in cash means the upside exposure is severely capped.

Even though I did try to get aggressive in Q4 of 2021 by raising price targets, I didn’t get aggressive enough, so my resolution for 2022 is to get even more aggressive, raising price targets and ensuring that positions have at least a 50% allocation as quickly as possible.

All that being said, I think the run-up Santa Claus Rally we saw into year-end could portend a decent market pullback in the first few months of 2022, so I am balancing my more aggressive stance with careful quantities to ensure I don’t get overweight only to have the market blow through my price targets to the downside.

Here is how the Pandemic Portfolio positions performed in 2021:

1. Microsoft [MSFT]: +51.21%
2. Costco [COST]: +50.67%
3. UnitedHealth [UNH]: +43.19%
4. Waste Management [WM]: +41.52%
5. Crown Castle [CCI]: +31.13%
6. Digital Realty Trust [DLR]: +26.78%
7. Pepsico [PEP]: +17.13%
8. Barrick Gold [GOLD]: -16.59%

Let’s take a look at how the portfolio fared since November…

Portfolio Status

 

Portfolio
Performance

Year-To-Date: +14.893%

Overall: +17.217%

Change since Last Update:  +3.241%
Holdings: 46.30% | Cash: 53.70%

Barrick Gold
(GOLD)

-8.66%

1st Buy 10/28/2020 @ $26.26
Current Per-Share: $20.80

Digital Realty
(DLR)

+45.57%

1st Buy 5/12/2020 @ $143.35
Current Per-Share: $121.50

UnitedHealth
(UNH)

+56.01%

1st Buy 6/12/2020 @ $282.41
Current Per-Share: $321.86

Costco
(COST)

+117.69%

1st Buy 5/12/2020 @ $306.88
Current Per-Share: $260.78

Microsoft
(MSFT)

+66.83%

1st Buy 5/12/2020 @ $180.74
Current Per-Share: $201.60

Waste Management
(WM)

+35.71%

1st Buy 1/14/2021 @ $114.78
Current Per-Share: $122.99

Crown Castle
(CCI)

+42.97%

1st Buy 7/21/2020 @ $167.24
Current Per-Share: $146.00

Pepsico
(PEP)

+39.92%

1st Buy 5/13/2020 @ $132.97
Current Per-Share: $124.15

Portfolio Breakdown

 

Get Irked - Pandemic Portfolio - December 31, 2021

Click image for an enlarged version.

Get Irked - Year-to-Date Performance - Investments in Play vs. Speculation in Play - 2020 Year-to-Date Performance

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Positions

%

Target Position Size

Get Irked's Pandemic Portfolio Holdings as of December 31, 2021

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Moves Since Last Update

 

Barrick Gold (GOLD): Added & Dividends

Current Price: $19.00
Per-Share Cost
: $20.80 (-2.485% since last update)
Profit/Loss:
-8.66%
Allocation: 7.537%* (+0.306% since last update)
Next Buy Target: $15.15

Barrick Gold (GOLD) and the rest of the precious metals sector came under serious fire mid-month going into the Federal Reserve meeting as expectations of rate increases defeating inflation scared goldbugs out of anything resembling yellow metals.

GOLD dropped through my next buy target on Wednesday, December 15, 2021, triggering a buy order that filled at $17.47. At that price, GOLD nearly yields 5% with its substantial dividend and profit-sharing policies… crazy! The buy lowered my per-share cost -1.547% from $21.33 to $21.00. From here, my next buy target is $15.15, above a past point of support, and my next sell target is around $24.25, near the high of GOLD’s last bull rally.

On Wednesday evening, GOLD paid out its quarterly dividend and return of capital, lowering my per-share cost -0.952% from $21.00 to $20.80.

GOLD is $19.00 as of this update, up +8.76% from where I added.

Costco (COST): Strategy Update

Current Price: $563.00
Per-Share Cost
: $260.78 (Unchanged since last update)
Profit/Loss: +117.69%

Allocation: 5.228%* (+0.053% since last update)
Next Buy Target: $526.90

Costco (COST) held up very well over the last month, continuing onward to make new all-time highs. While that’s certainly a positive in terms of a long-term investment, COST hasn’t really offered the opportunity for me to add to the position.

That’s fine. I’m in no hurry.

My next price target to add to Costco is $526.90, and since I’m expecting a pullback in the first few months of 2022, I think it’s likely I’ll be able to add to this position soon.

Crown Castle (CCI): Profit-Taking

Current Price: $208.74
Per-Share Cost
: $146.00 (-4.325% since last update)
Profit/Loss:
+42.97%
Allocation: 6.888%* (-0.149% since last update)
Next Buy Target: $167.85

During the last week of the year, Crown Castle (CCI) made an attempt at its all-time high, leading me to take some profits on Monday, December 27 with a sell order which filled at $203.65. The order locked in +19.506% in gains on shares I bought a little over two months ago at $170.41 on October 8.

From here, my next buy target is $167.85, above a past point of support, and I have no additional sell targets at this time.

CCI is $208.74 as of this update, +2.50% from where I took profits.

Digital Realty Trust (DLR): Strategy Update

Current Price: $176.87
Per-Share Cost
: $121.50 (Unchanged since last update)
Profit/Loss:
 +45.57%
Allocation: 6.669%* (-0.224% since last update)
Next Buy Target: $139.70

The Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) started to outperform the rest of the market once the Federal Reserve Bank expressed very hawkish views in mid-December with plans to raise interest rates and taper quicker than expected. Like Crown Castle (CCI) above, Digital Realty Trust (DLR) also made new all-time highs, however, since I’d taken profits back in late November, I have no plans to sell more of this position.

Additionally, my next price target to add to the position is much lower than its current levels down at $139.70, a previous point of support. Over the past 18 months that I’ve held CCI and DLR, I’ve noticed the REITs can really fluctuate dramatically in terms of price, so I’m going to be patient and not add to this position in any kind of a hurry.

Microsoft (MSFT): Added & Dividends

Current Price: $336.32
Per-Share Cost
: $201.60 (+1.205% since last update)
Profit/Loss:
 +66.83%
Allocation: 6.151%* (+0.100% since last update)
Next Buy Target: $307.90

Microsoft (MSFT) paid out its quarterly dividend on Friday, December 10, lowering my per-share cost -0.181% from $199.20 to $198.84. At its then-current price, MSFT’s annual yield was only 0.72%, but, given this is one of the biggest companies in the entire world, I can’t really complain about that.

On Tuesday, December 14, Microsoft sold off with the rest of the market, triggering a buy order that filled at $324.95. The order raised my per-share cost +1.388% from $198.84 to $201.60. From here, my next buy target is $307.90, slightly above a past point of support, and I have no sell targets at this time.

MSFT is $336.32 as of this update, up +3.50% from where I added.

Pepsico (PEP): Strategy Update

Current Price: $173.71
Per-Share Cost
: $124.90 (Unchanged since last update)
Profit/Loss:
+39.92%
Allocation: 4.379%* (+0.209% since last update)
Next Buy Target: $166.95

Pepsico (PEP) and the rest of the consumer staples space has really started outperforming in what will likely be a tighter interest rate environment thanks to the Fed. With PEP making new all-time highs and showing incredible strength, I’ve raised my price target to add to the position to $166.95. 

In accordance with my New Year’s Resolution to get even more aggressive, PEP is one of the positions that is substantially underallocated in the Pandemic Portfolio, so it will receive much more aggressive price targets going forward.

UnitedHealth (UNH): Dividend Reinvestment

Current Price: $502.14
Per-Share Cost
: $321.86 (-0.300% since last update)
Profit/Loss:
 +56.01%
Allocation: 4.833%* (+0.544% since last update)
Next Buy Target: $454.90

UnitedHealth (UNH) paid out its usual quarterly dividend on Wednesday, December 15, lowering my per-share cost -0.300% from $322.83 to $321.86.

UNH has seen a dramatic increase in value since the last update, but, despite this, my price target remains $454.90, around a past point of support. UNH is notorious for significant selloffs as the medical industry is regularly a target for political advocacy.

Accordingly, I’m a bit more conservative when it comes to exactly where I want to add to this position.

Waste Management (WM): Added & Dividends

Current Price: $166.90
Per-Share Cost
: $122.99 (+7.321% since last update)
Profit/Loss:
+35.71%
Allocation: 3.061%* (+0.699% since last update)
Next Buy Target: $157.65

Waste Management (WM) has been an outperformer in the Pandemic Portfolio, taking off faster than I could add to it which means it has consistently been the smallest position in the portfolio. I tried to resolve that by adding to it during the market selloff early in December with a buy order that filled at $160.68 on Thursday, December 2.

The order raised my per-share cost (something I positively hate doing) +7.635% from $114.60 to $123.35. From here, my next buy target is $157.65, above a past point of support, and, of course, I have no sell targets at this time. On Monday, December 20, WM paid out its quarterly dividend, lowering my per-share cost -0.292% from $123.35 to $122.99.

WM is $xxx.xx as of this update, up +3.87% from where I added.

* Target allocation for each position in the portfolio is 12.50% of the overall portfolio.

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Disclaimer:
Eric "Irk" Jacobson and all other Get Irked contributors are not investment or financial advisers. All strategies, trading ideas, and other information presented comes from non-professional, amateur investors and traders sharing techniques and ideas for general information purposes.

As always, all individuals should consult their financial advisers to determine if an investing idea is right for them. All investing comes with levels of risk with some ideas and strategies carrying more risk than others.

As an individual investor, you are accountable for assessing all risk to determine if the strategy or idea fits with your investment style. All information on Get Irked is presented for educational and informational purposes only.

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