Summing Up The Week

A brutal one‑two inflation punch and fresh geopolitical tension should have sent markets spinning this week, as April’s CPI and PPI both came in scorching hot, driven largely by wartime energy spikes, wiping out wage gains and tightening the financial vise on American households. However, investors continued to ignore those concerns.

Even as stocks rallied to new all-time highs, the backdrop grew more complicated: Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Fed Chair offered no immediate policy clarity and President Trump’s refusal to discuss Taiwan with China injected a new layer of uncertainty into already‑fragile global relations.

Let's take a deeper dive into the news that moved (or didn't) markets this week...

Market News

Consumer prices rose 3.8% annually in April, highest since May 2023

On Tuesday, the Consumer Price Index showed prices rose 3.8% annually in April, much higher than the 2.8% expected and the highest since May 2023, reported CNBC. Unsurprisingly, the most significant contributors was the increase in energy prices which rose another 3.8% as a result of the Iran War. Food also added another 0.5%, however energy was certainly the big dog with a 12-month gain at 17.9% with the gasoline index increasing a whopping 28.4% year-over-year.

"Inflation is the key drag on the U.S. economy now," said Heather Long, Chief Economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. "This is hurting Americans. There is a real financial squeeze underway. For the first time in three years, inflation is eating up all wage gains. This is a setback for middle-class and lower-income households and they know it."

Combine inflation with the ongoing uncertainty regarding any resolution to the Iran War and stocks sold off going into the trading day on Tuesday, but recovered much of their losses to finish the day just slightly lower than flat.

Wholesale inflation at 6% annually in April, biggest increase since 2022

As if Tuesday's CPI report wasn't bad enough, Wednesday's Producer Price Index (PPI) showed an even larger increase, coming in at an annual rate of inflation of 6% in April versus the 4.8% expected by economists, and the largest monthly increase since March 2022, reported CNBC.

As one might expect, energy was the main culprit for the high producer prices just as it was in the CPI report from Tuesday, however there's a lot more than the higher cost of gasoline affecting it. With so much of the country's energy derived from fossil fuel-related sources, increasing global oil prices slam the producers.

"Inflation is sticky and accelerating. The core reading confirms a deeper structural trend, especially in services," said David Russell, Global Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation. "The Hormuz crisis is aggravating the problem, but this goes way beyond oil."

Despite the additional inflation concerns, stocks rallied throughout Wednesday.

Kevin Warsh confirmed as next Federal Reserve Chair

On Wednesday, to no one's surprise, Kevin Warsh was confirmed by the Senate as the next chair of the Federal Reserve, reported CNBC. Months ago, Warsh's confirmation would have been seen as Bullish for stocks as President Donald Trump appointed Warsh to lower interest rates. However, the combination of already sticky inflation and the Iran War pretty much ties Warsh's hands. In fact, if he tries to cut rates, the bond market will likely retaliate and cause a crash, so the best approach he could make out of the gate is to do nothing.

So, while stocks did rally on Wednesday, I think that had little to with Warsh's confirmation. If he's to be a quality Fed Chair - and I believe he could be - I think he knows that he can't cut rates until we see the economy calm down in terms of inflation.

Trump refuses to talk Taiwan with Chinese President Xi

On Friday, President Donald Trump said he refused to answer Chinese President Xi Jinping regarding the U.S. approach to Taiwan, reported CNBC. "That question was asked to me today by President Xi. I said I don’t talk about that," said Trump.

At the beginning of the two-day summit, Xi warned that mishandling China's interest in reabsorbing Taiwan could have dire outcomes on the U.S.-China relationship, however the U.S. has a longstanding agreement to defend Taiwan should China invade.

When a reporter asked Trump to comment, his answer did not provide any clarity on the situation as to what he would do, "There’s only one person that knows that. You know who it is? Me. I’m the only person."

Next Week's Gameplan

In terms of planned news events, we do have a few datapoints worth noting next week including the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's May meeting on Wednesday; the S&P flash services and manufacturing PMIs on Thursday; and consumer sentiment for May on Friday.

And, while it seems the earnings season is winding down, it's not close to over yet as the big mammajamma, Nvidia (NVDA) itself, reports on Wednesday After Market Close (AMC). I will also be watching Take Two Interactive's (TTWO) report on Thursday AMC to see if there are any developments on Grand Theft Auto 6, the game that will make or break the company which has been delayed so many times it's become an online gamer meme.

So, join me back here next week as I'm certain we will have plenty to go over, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Bitcoin continued to exhibit concerning behavior as it encountered the 200-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA) line (in blue). As I mentioned last week, during the prior Crypto Winters, Bitcoin was unable to turn the 200-Day SMA from resistance into support and would roll over, crashing significantly lower than what was thought to be the bottom of that winter.

Bitcoin made a lower high than last week at $82,450.00 on before rolling Sunday before rolling over later in the week, making a weekly low at $78,699.83 on Wednesday.

What would make me Bullish on Bitcoin?

Bitcoin’s at a key spot at the cycle - challenging the 200-Day SMA. Unfortunately, I’d need to see a lot more than a break and retest of the SMA, converting it from resistance into support. With stocks, this is a bullish sign, but Bitcoin is different:

Bitcoin. Cannot. Be. Trusted.

In past Crypto Winters, Bitcoin has rallied above the 200-Day SMA, changed it into support, and convinced Bulls the winter is over only to roll over and positively decimate the space. In 2022, Bitcoin touched the 200-Day SMA only to sell off -63.58% from that touchpoint before truly bottoming. It took Bitcoin 42 trading days from that touch on March 28, 2022 before it broke down to new lows on May 9, 2022.

In other words, with Bitcoin only now nearly touching the 200-Day SMA this week, we might not see the true next move until late July (or even later). For me, I want to see Bitcoin rally significantly and leave the 200-Day SMA in the rearview mirror. I don’t want it to be a battle. I want it to be barely a sneeze.

Until and unless Bitcoin breaks out significantly higher from here - I’m talking breaking above the resistance around $98K - the possibility this Crypto Winter isn’t done with us is the most likely outcome.

The Bullish Case

Bulls continue to rally behind Strategy (MSTR) CEO Michael Saylor whose company recently had to sell Bitcoin to pay the dividend for its derivative Bitcoin-income product and declared, “See? We can sell Bitcoin and the space is okay…” Bulls believe the Crypto Winter is clearly over and that the current price action is simply consolidation to build up enough strength for Bitcoin to overcome the 200-Day SMA and break out to new all-time highs.

The Bearish Case

Bears (like me, unfortunately, as I hate being a Bear) believe the Crypto Winter is far from over. All of the price action Bitcoin is making currently isn’t just familiar, it’s nearly identical to past cycles where the bottom was far from in.

To the naysayers who ask, “But, what’s the catalyst for a selloff?” I’ll point out that the catalyst is often insignificant after the passage of time. In 2022, the catalyst was the fraud of FTX which was certainly legitimate, but in 2018 - a Crypto Winter that saw Bitcoin sell off in excess of -80% - the catalyst was a battle between two groups of Bitcoin Cash - one who wanted to fork a certain way and another who disagreed.

Yes, that was it.

In 2018, the big “catalyst” that sent Bitcoin down more than 50% from ~$6600 to ~$3100 (down from a high of $20K) was a Bitcoin Cash fork, an altcoin so insignificant now - less than a decade later - that many new to the space have never heard of it.

The catalyst doesn’t matter. Only price action does. And the current price action says Bitcoin cannot be trusted.

Bitcoin Trade Update

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto...

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges - Gemini and Coinbase - in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin's price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.
• In February 2026, Bitcoin dropped -53% to a low of $60,001.00.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

The only reason I speculate in the cryptocurrency space is I truly believe Bitcoin isn’t headed to zero.

I am prepared for that possibility, however, by knowing I could potentially lose all of the capital I’ve allocated to this speculative investment. Professional advisers recommend speculating with no more than 5% of an investor’s overall assets. Personally, I’ve allocated less than that to speculating in crypto.

I feel that anyone who doesn’t fully believe in the long-term viability of cryptocurrency would be better served not speculating in the space.

On a good day, this asset class isn’t suitable for those with weak stomachs. On volatile days, the sector can induce nausea in the most iron-willed speculator. If a speculator isn’t confident in the space, the moves will cause mistakes to be made.

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.

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