Summing Up The Week

It was a week that perfectly captured the market's uneasy relationship with the AI boom. Investors cheered the long-awaited IPO filing from Anthropic (ANT), one of the industry's largest artificial intelligence companies, helping drive a sharp rally early in the week. Yet beneath the optimism, growing questions about AI monetization, runaway spending, and whether corporate America is seeing meaningful productivity gains from its massive AI investments continued to cloud the outlook.

Market News

Market rallies on back of Anthropic IPO filing

On Monday, Anthropic, one of the two major AI companies alongside OpenAI, officially filed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) which will list under the ticker symbol ANT, reported CNBC. The IPO was long-awaited with many pundits expecting it to go public before it needs to report Q3 numbers where companies ceasing "tokenmaxing" is expected to dramatically negatively affect revenue.

Earlier in the year, companies like Uber Technologies (UBER) encouraged their employees to use AI as much as possible to which the term "tokenmaxing" applies as employees try to max out how many tokens - the currency used with AI requests - they use in order to demonstrate productive use of AI.

Uber quickly learned the downfall of tokenmaxing when the company burned through its entire full-year allotment for AI spending within the first quarter of the year. Uber wasn't the only one with Microsoft (MSFT) also reporting they would be finding new ways the productivity improvements of AI outside of simply tracking how much their employees were using it.

Some AI experts believe there has been little to no actual improvement in productivity for many companies which places further concern on the revenue of Anthropic and OpenAI. As a result, without tokenmaxing, the revenue numbers for Anthropic in the third quarter are expected to be steeply down which would reflect badly on the IPO as new investors might be hesitant to "throw good money after bad."

Regardless, the market took the official announcement of Anthropic's IPO as good news with the S&P 500 finishing Monday up +0.70% and the Nasdaq closing the day up +0.82%, a sharp reversal of the selloff we'd seen late last week.

Fed holds rates steady with 2 dissents

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Bank announced it would hold interest rates steady, however two members dissented the decision in favor of a hike, reported CNBC. With the midterm elections less than a week away, no one was surprised by the decision or by the two dissenters as the Fed will likely have to hike rates when they meet in December.

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh also announced they would be reducing the number of meetings where a rate would be decided. He affirmed that the FOMC would continue to meet eight times a year, however fewer will be "live meetings" where the committee would decide to raise or lower the benchmark interest rate.

The markets seemed to take the FOMC meeting in stride with the S&P 500 finishing Wednesday up +0.28% and the Nasdaq closing the day up +0.27%.

3Q GDP on the rise along with September inflation

On Thursday, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, showed annual inflation rate at 3.6%, higher than the estimates for 3.5% while U.S. GDP came in higher than expected at 3.4% versus 3.1% estimates, reported CNBC.

While inflation wasn't shocking and GDP was good news, the stock market was already in a selloff thanks to a disappointing quarterly report from Alphabet / Google (GOOGL) on Wednesday night which showed the company is spending like a drunken sailor with that spending only getting worse forecasted into 2027.

Analysts believe these figures still indicate a strong economy heading forward. "Net, net, economic growth is powering ahead despite the uncertainty of geopolitical risks and the damage posed to many sectors of the economy by higher energy costs," said Chris Rupkey, Chief Economist at Fwdbonds. "The economy was thought to have been a lost cause during much of the current Administration’s time in office, but real GDP has bounced back above a 3 percent run rate in Q3 2026 for the first time in a year."

Binance reports biggest-ever $6.3B crypto hack

On Thursday evening, Binance reported the biggest-ever crypto hack as $6.3 billion worth of crypto was stolen from the exchange. Nearly $3 billion was frozen before it could be taken but the remainder is still unaccounted for, reported CNBC.

Binance said an initial investigation suggests “the security incident may involve a compromised DevOps engineer’s laptop, which allowed an attacker to gain access to a service container and submit unauthorized withdrawal transactions.” CEO Richard Teng claims Binance will cover all customer losses with its SAFU fund, except investigators like Cryptozilla revealed that fund only contains $1 billion, a far cry from the more than $3 billion which hasn’t been recovered.

Bitcoin lost all support on the news, falling from its daily high around $81,880 down to a low of temporary support just above $76,300.

Amazon & Intel earnings send tech lower

On Friday, disappointing earnings reports from Amazon (AMZN) and Intel (INTC) piled on Google's (GOOGL) report from earlier in the week to send stocks down further with the Nasdaq dropping more than -2%, reported CNBC. Instead of sticking with tech, traders rotated into defensive sectors with Procter & Gamble (PG), Walmart (WMT), Coca-Cola (KO), and portfolio holding Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) seeing gains on a bloody day for the Nasdaq.

Analysts supported the move as investors become more cautious regarding AI spending. "With renewed fears over AI Monetization, the Equity rotation is likely to continue today but the broader indices will reflect Tech’s downside," JPMorgan traders said in a Friday note.

The S&P 500 wasn't left out of the fray by any stretch, either, also down more than -1.50% during midday trading.

Next Week's Gameplan

Next week kicks off with U.S. Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending reports on Monday. On Wednesday, we get the ADP employment report with the Bureau of Labor Statistics' payroll report coming out on Friday along with the updated consumer survey from the University of Michigan as well as September's consumer credit numbers.

Meanwhile, it's full steam ahead with earnings season as I'm watching these positions report next week:

Monday: IDEXX Laboratories reports Before Market Open (BMO). Apple (AAPL) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR) report After Market Close (AMC).

Tuesday (U.S. Election Day): Shopify (SHOP) reports BMO. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Block (XYZ) report AMC.

Wednesday: Novo Nordisk (NVO), Sprott (SII), and Uber Technologies (UBER) report BMO. Arm Holdings (ARM), Dutch Bros (BROS), Joby Aviation (JOBY), and Nutrien (NTR) report AMC.

Thursday: Lemonade (LMND) and Zoetis (ZTS) report BMO. DraftKings (DKNG) and Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) report AMC.

Friday: Canopy Growth Corporation (CGC) reports BMO.

Let's also not forget the midterm elections are next Tuesday so the week promises to be a wild one! Join me back here on Friday so we can take it all in, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

We now know the catalyst that could send Bitcoin into this Crypto Winter’s final crash. On Thursday evening, Binance reported the biggest-ever crypto hack as $6.3 billion worth of crypto was stolen from the exchange. Nearly $3 billion was frozen before it could be taken but the remainder is still unaccounted for.

Binance said an initial investigation suggests “the security incident may involve a compromised DevOps engineer’s laptop, which allowed an attacker to gain access to a service container and submit unauthorized withdrawal transactions.” CEO Richard Teng claims Binance will cover all customer losses with its SAFU fund, except investigators like Cryptozilla revealed that fund only contains $1 billion, a far cry from the more than $3 billion which hasn’t been recovered.

Just like past Crypto Winters, this initial report could just be the starting salvo with more extreme incidents/reports on the way in the coming days and weeks… putting Bitcoin at the exact same time of the year - early November - as 2018 and 2022 when it started its final descent for those two Crypto Winters.

Bitcoin broke through last week’s low at $80,789.61 last Friday, not finding support until making a new weekly low at $79,107.00 on Saturday. This drop corresponded with Bitcoin falling below the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), flipping it from support into resistance, the first time this has happened since near the start of the rally to $87K which began more than two months ago on August 18th.

The Bitcoin permabulls continue to claim the crypto will head to prices of $90K and higher within a matter of days, but Bitcoin’s price action is telling a very different story. Over the weekend, Bitcoin fell below $80,000 and remained unable to retake that key level despite a relief rally throughout most of the stock market including “risk-on” sectors like technology and Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks. Even precious metals were seeing some love while Bitcoin floundered.

Finally, once the Federal Reserve announced it would leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged (as expected), Bitcoin caught a break with the rest of the risk-on assets and crossed over the EMA, although I would have preferred to see it do so with a lot more gusto; the bullish momentum was… lackluster, at best, with Bitcoin hitting a much lower-weekly high of $81,890.00 on Wednesday, a far cry from last week’s $84,856.07.

And, then… the bottom fell out.

Shortly after the stock market closed on Thursday evening, Binance reported the biggest-ever crypto heist and Bitcoin crashed through all prior recent support levels made over the past few months, breaking down to a new low at $76,414.86, finding temporary support at the 200-Day Exponential Moving Average.

Hopefully, no one needs me to tell them this price action is not bullish.

Over the past few weeks, my cautious optimism has been waning as I’ve pointed out how disappointing Bitcoin’s price action has been in each of my weekly updates. Now, the familiar gameplan that has played out over every single other past Crypto Winter is once again rearing its head:

1. Bitcoin crashes to a low in excess of -50% from its all-time high.
2.  Bitcoin bounces and rallies +50 to +60% from that low.
3.  All the permabulls scream: “This time is different! Bitcoin won’t sell off as much as every other Crypto Winter! The bottom is in!”
4.  Bitcoin rolls over and crashes to lower-lows.

As I’ve said week after week, there’s no guarantee this has to happen.

This time really could be different.

… it’s just not playing out that way right now.

Bitcoin Trade Update

Premium subscribers to Get Irked get access to all the moves I've made in my Bitcoin trade over the past week as well as my next thirty (30) ... yes, 30 ... buys in Bitcoin including price levels, quantities, and a full layout of my ongoing long-term trade in the world's biggest crypto.

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto...

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin's price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.
• In July 2026, Bitcoin dropped -54% to a low of $57,717.55.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

The only reason I speculate in the cryptocurrency space is I truly believe Bitcoin isn’t headed to zero.

I am prepared for that possibility, however, by knowing I could potentially lose all of the capital I’ve allocated to this speculative investment. Professional advisers recommend speculating with no more than 5% of an investor’s overall assets. Personally, I’ve allocated less than that to speculating in crypto.

I feel that anyone who doesn’t fully believe in the long-term viability of cryptocurrency would be better served not speculating in the space.

On a good day, this asset class isn’t suitable for those with weak stomachs. On volatile days, the sector can induce nausea in the most iron-willed speculator. If a speculator isn’t confident in the space, the moves will cause mistakes to be made.

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.

Suicide Hotline - You Are Not Alone

Studies show that economic recessions cause an increase in suicide, especially when combined with thoughts of loneliness and anxiety.

If you or someone you know are having thoughts of suicide or self-harm, please contact the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline by visiting www.suicidepreventionlifeline.org or calling 1-800-273-TALK.

The hotline is open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.