Summing Up The Week

Market News

U.S. crude oil above $105 with Brent at 5-month highs

On Tuesday, rising tensions in the Middle East sent U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil over $105 a barrel while Brent crude hit five-month highs, reported CNBC. Clearly, the Iran War is far from cooling as the United Kingdom also announced on Tuesday that it deploying fighter jets to defend cities in Saudi Arabia from ongoing Houthi attacks.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed two "non-compliant" ships had been set on fire after striking mines in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian state-affiliated news agency Tasnim.

Meanwhile, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said at a weekly news conference on Tuesday that Tehran would respond to any American strike "in equal measure, if not more forcefully," according to Tasnim.

Theses ongoing attacks come on the back of U.S. President Donald Trump announcing the United States wouldn't launch any retaliatory attacks on Iran until after the midterm elections in early November. Seemingly, this has opened the way for Iran to raise the stakes without fear of any defense from the U.S.

While initially the stock market indexes were down on the news in premarket trading, the S&P 500 turned green shortly after the market opened as investors bought the dip. The Nasdaq, on the other hand, continued to remain under pressure due to concerns about the AI data center trade.

Meta going cashflow negative spooks markets

On Wednesday evening, Meta Platforms (META) reported a decent quarter but warned that it was cashflow negative (in other words, Meta is spending more on AI cap-ex than it's making from advertising) and this caused a bit of a panic in markets during Thursday trading, reported CNBC.

JPMorgan (JPM) noted that Wednesday’s bullish “tone reversed overnight” after Meta shares rolled over combined with increased concerns "over renewed Iran kinetic-risk post US mid-term election."

In addition, "underlying price actions and feedback from our trading desk also suggested the still fragile narrative around AI financing concerns and the lack of conviction/re-grossing from the recent tech reversal," JPMorgan said in a note to clients.

All indexes opened in the red and continued to sell off as the day progressed. Meta's stock sold off more than -5% as investors grappled with how long the company would lose money before seeing any Return On Investment (ROI) for its AI cap-ex spend.

Middle East tensions exacerbate selloff

Meta's (META) disturbing earnings may have triggered the marketwide selloff which started Thursday, but Middle East tensions rising caused the stock selloff to continue on Friday as U.S. oil prices once again broke above $100 per barrel, reported CNBC.

On Thursday evening, President Donald Trump hinted that escalating action may be needed to rein in Iran, while, on Friday, investors continued to sell down AI stocks like CoreWeave (CRWV).

Analysts tried to remain upbeat with Ed Yareni, President of Yardeni Research, described the AI trade as a "bubble" but also suggested letting some pressure of bubble wouldn't be terrible for its long-term resilience. "Taking some air out of the AI bubble is a good thing. I don’t think it’s going to burst and create problems for the economy," he said in an interview with CNBC, pointing to the bond market as a source of capital competition for equities.

Initially, the indexes opened down on Friday morning with the S&P 500 down more than -0.30% and the Nasdaq down more than -0.50% to kick off the day's trading.

Next Week's Gameplan

Earnings season gets real next week as we head deeper into the season. I'll be closely watching my following positions' reports:

Tuesday: Boeing (BA) and SoFi Technologies (SOFI) report Before Market Open (BMO). Logitech (LOGI), Robinhood (HOOD), Visa (V), and Waste Management (WM) report After Market Close (AMC).

Wednesday: CME Group (CME) reports BMO. Alphabet/Google (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) report AMC.

Thursday: Caterpillar (CAT) reports BMO. Amazon (AMZN), Coinbase (COIN), Digital Realty Trust (DLR), Intel (INTC), Pinterest (PINS), Roblox (RBLX), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), and Twilio (TWLO) all report AMC.

Friday: Cameco (CCJ) and Chevron (CVX) report BMO.

As if all the earnings reports weren't enough, we'll also get durable goods orders and new home sales on Tuesday; the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday; and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index on Thursday.

Whew! It's going to be a busy week so join me back here next Friday to go over all the market moves, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Bitcoin’s price action seemed to go bullish when it made a higher weekly-high at $84,856.07 on Wednesday only for Big Orange to roll over completely when the stock market pulled back on Thursday, finding support right on the 100-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $80,789.61.

Long story short, my perspective remains unchanged on Bitcoin: it really needs to break out from this range for me to feel more confident.

Bitcoin continues to fail to convert the Next Support of Last Resort trendline (in blue) from resistance into support, and history says the longer the crypto stays under it, the more likely we are to see a further breakdown.

The Bullish Case

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Bulls continue to make calls for Bitcoin to break out to $95K with no real evidence to support these claims outside of nuanced indicators which they take huge liberties with to support their bull call. While it’s possible this may happen, the fact that Bitcoin doesn’t seem to get much love even when the stock market is raging doesn’t fill me with a ton of confidence.

The Bearish Case

The Bears argue that Bitcoin’s inability to break out higher combined with the seasonality of Bitcoin’s historical tendency to crash in November as well as the potential macroeconomic events like the U.S. midterm elections and the Iran War could lead to significantly further downside.

Personally, Bitcoin rarely surprises me anymore even when it makes huge moves; this is an asset class known for unexpected volatility so the best approach is to, quite literally, expect the unexpected: Bitcoin could break out higher or it could break down lower from these levels.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains in The Danger Zone region with both the Bulls and Bears getting almost bored by the crypto’s indecision about its next big move. In other words, not much has changed since last week’s update - Bitcoin is still rangebound which means we have no additional information to make a judgment call until and unless Bitcoin rallies higher or breaks down lower from here.

Bitcoin Trade Update

Premium subscribers to Get Irked get access to all the moves I've made in my Bitcoin trade over the past week as well as my next thirty (30) ... yes, 30 ... buys in Bitcoin including price levels, quantities, and a full layout of my ongoing long-term trade in the world's biggest crypto.

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto...

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin's price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.
• In July 2026, Bitcoin dropped -54% to a low of $57,717.55.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

The only reason I speculate in the cryptocurrency space is I truly believe Bitcoin isn’t headed to zero.

I am prepared for that possibility, however, by knowing I could potentially lose all of the capital I’ve allocated to this speculative investment. Professional advisers recommend speculating with no more than 5% of an investor’s overall assets. Personally, I’ve allocated less than that to speculating in crypto.

I feel that anyone who doesn’t fully believe in the long-term viability of cryptocurrency would be better served not speculating in the space.

On a good day, this asset class isn’t suitable for those with weak stomachs. On volatile days, the sector can induce nausea in the most iron-willed speculator. If a speculator isn’t confident in the space, the moves will cause mistakes to be made.

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.

Suicide Hotline - You Are Not Alone

Studies show that economic recessions cause an increase in suicide, especially when combined with thoughts of loneliness and anxiety.

If you or someone you know are having thoughts of suicide or self-harm, please contact the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline by visiting www.suicidepreventionlifeline.org or calling 1-800-273-TALK.

The hotline is open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.