Summing Up The Week

The stock market opened the week under a barrage of geopolitical shocks and inflation surprises as the White House’s controversial move to lift sanctions on Russian diesel and a dramatic Iranian attack in the Strait of Hormuz collided to rattle investor confidence.

The situation didn't improve as the week continued as diesel prices kept climbing despite the policy shift, inflation accelerated on the back of surging energy costs, and Iran’s sinking of a Singapore‑flagged container ship reignited fears that the conflict could escalate further.

By Thursday, wholesale inflation confirmed the trend, leaving stocks on edge and analysts increasingly convinced the Federal Reserve may have little choice but to tighten policy again.

Let's take a deeper dive into the news that moved markets this week...

Market News

Trump tries to defend lifting sanctions on Russia to lower diesel prices

On Monday, President Donald Trump attempted to defend his decision to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian fuel exports, specifically diesel, following bipartisan criticism, reported CNBC.

With diesel prices continuing to rise and midterm elections rapidly nearing, Trump wanted to lower the cost of diesel fuel by allowing Russia to export the product, however energy experts point out that doing so would likely do little to lower the price of diesel while political experts say lifting sanctions weakened the U.S. standing against Russia.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump complained about the media allegedly not covering past purchases of Russian energy by the European Union, but now covering the U.S. "The European Union paid Russia 250 Billion Dollars for Energy, and the Fake News Media doesn’t want to get near that story," Trump wrote.

While the president did not specify, his figure roughly tracks with some estimates of how much the EU has spent importing fossil fuels from Russia since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The European Commission has launched a plan to phase out its dependence on Russian energy.

“I made the right choice for the American People — ALWAYS, AMERICA FIRST!” Trump also wrote in the social media post.

The lifted sanctions had no impact on oil prices with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude raising more than +2% while stocks pulled back slightly during Monday trading.

Consumer inflation rose 3.7% annualized in September

On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed inflation increased by an annual rate of 3.7% in September primarily driven by spiking gasoline costs, reported CNBC. Dow Jones economists expected an increase to 3.6% on an annual basis, making CPI slightly hotter than expected.

The energy costs were the biggest culprit with the energy index adding a whopping 5.2% with ever-present tensions between the U.S. and Iran thanks to the war started in February with no sign on the horizon that we should expect a peace plan anytime soon. Gasoline prices on their own skyrocketed an eyewatering 9.1% which made up roughly half the gain in the headline CPI.

"CPI came in hot and it wasn’t just fuel prices, as core inflation ran at a 3.7% annualized pace in September and 3.2% over three years," said Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group. "The only surprise is that investors keep getting surprised by broad-based inflation. And we’ve yet to see the full impact of higher diesel prices and the AI boom."

During early morning trading at the market open, the S&P 500 sold off more than -0.25% and the Nasdaq was down more than -0.60% on the back of the CPI news.

Iran sinks container ship in Strait of Hormuz

On Wednesday, the CPI may have warmed up the selloff in markets, but Iran's attack and sinking of a container ship, the GFS Pride registered in Singapore, really caused markets to rethink the Iran War once more, reported CNBC.

Critically, all 21 of the ship's crew members were safely evacuated with no injuries reported, according to the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore. The Pride is just the latest in more than 20 ship attacks made by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz throughout October with attacks escalated after President Donald Trump announced the U.S. would not retaliate until after the midterm elections in early November. One might say that Iran is capitalizing on Trump's announcement to test his mettle.

As a combined result of the hotter-than-expected inflation report and Iran's sinking of the GFS Pride, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both sold off, finishing the day down -1.11% and -1.88%, respectively.

Wholeale inflation rose 6.3% annualized in September

On Thursday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) confirmed the CPI's move from earlier in the week, showing wholesale prices increased 6.3% annualized in September, the largest increase since 2022, reported CNBC. Just like the CPI, the majority of the increases came from spiking energy prices with the Iran War sending oil prices much higher.

The one-two punch of CPI and PPI have led many analysts to believe the Federal Reserve has no choice but to hike interest rates once more when they meet later this month. "With a second day in a row of higher-than-expected inflation numbers, it seems the Fed will have no choice but to raise rates again this year," said Chris Zaccarelli, Investing Chief at Northlight Asset Management.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both opened lower in market trading on Thursday even after Wednesday's substantial pullback.

Next Week's Gameplan

Next week is oddly quiet when it comes to datapoints. We'll see some housing data on Monday and Tuesday with U.S. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs coming on Friday (which moved the markets when they came out last month), but, outside of that data, there's nothing else on the calendar in terms of data.

That being said, earnings season is starting to kick off now. Here's what I'll be watching from my own portfolios:

Tuesday: Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) and Netflix (NFLX) report After Market Close (AMC).

Wednesday: CME Group (CME) reports Before Market Open (BMO). Crown Castle (CCI), International Business Machines (IBM), Meta Platforms (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Waste Connections (WCN) report AMC.

Thursday: Dow Chemical (DOW) and Union Pacific (UNP) report BMO.

Join me back here next Friday to see what happened in the markets, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Bitcoin set a much lower weekly high at $84,261.99 on Monday (last week’s high was $86,996.00) before the equity market had a bit of a fallout and caused Bitcoin to drop on Wednesday evening. Bitcoin broke through last week’s low of $80,314.70, creating a lower weekly-low at $79,676.02 on Thursday before bouncing.

To make matters worse, Bitcoin continues to struggle to flip my Next Support of Last Resort trendline (in blue) from resistance into support once again. While there are no promises, of course, typically when Bitcoin falls below the Next Support of Last Resort and can’t flip it back, it’s a signal of a much more significant pullback ahead.

The Bulls argue that this retest is healthy and indicates digestion of the past few weeks of consolidation with buyers stepping in to send Bitcoin higher into a new Bull Market. Some Bulls even suggest Bitcoin will retest the 200-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently trading around $75,700, before rallying to new all-time highs.

As much as I’d like to be firmly bullish, I must remain cognizant that Bitcoin is trading in a dangerous range (as I’ve spoken about over the past few weeks) where history suggests it could still make lower lows for this Crypto Winter; there are a myriad of potential negative catalysts throughout economic and geopolitics; and October-November is a notoriously bearish time for Bitcoin.

All that being said, I did add to my position once more right above the recent low with a buy order which filled during Bitcoin’s pullback Wednesday night. I remain cautiously optimistic when reviewing Bitcoin’s price action while using critical risk management discipline to prepare in case Bitcoin breaks lower.

Bitcoin Trade Update

Premium subscribers to Get Irked get access to all the moves I've made in my Bitcoin trade over the past week as well as my next thirty (30) ... yes, 30 ... buys in Bitcoin including price levels, quantities, and a full layout of my ongoing long-term trade in the world's biggest crypto.

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto...

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin's price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.
• In July 2026, Bitcoin dropped -54% to a low of $57,717.55.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

The only reason I speculate in the cryptocurrency space is I truly believe Bitcoin isn’t headed to zero.

I am prepared for that possibility, however, by knowing I could potentially lose all of the capital I’ve allocated to this speculative investment. Professional advisers recommend speculating with no more than 5% of an investor’s overall assets. Personally, I’ve allocated less than that to speculating in crypto.

I feel that anyone who doesn’t fully believe in the long-term viability of cryptocurrency would be better served not speculating in the space.

On a good day, this asset class isn’t suitable for those with weak stomachs. On volatile days, the sector can induce nausea in the most iron-willed speculator. If a speculator isn’t confident in the space, the moves will cause mistakes to be made.

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.

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Studies show that economic recessions cause an increase in suicide, especially when combined with thoughts of loneliness and anxiety.

If you or someone you know are having thoughts of suicide or self-harm, please contact the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline by visiting www.suicidepreventionlifeline.org or calling 1-800-273-TALK.

The hotline is open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.