Summing Up The Week

The stock market was tossed back into the geopolitical spin cycle this week as Washington and Tehran delivered another round of conflicting signals that left traders guessing and volatility elevated.

President Trump’s announcement of a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a move he framed as a response to Iran’s reported tolls on commercial vessels, reignited fears of an inflationary oil shock just as investors were digesting a softer‑than‑expected wholesale inflation print.

Then, in yet another whiplash twist, Iran declared the strait open to global shipping even as Trump insisted the U.S. blockade remained in force, creating a surreal split‑screen that markets ultimately shrugged off.

Let's take a deeper dive into the news that moved markets this week...

Market News

Trump says U.S. will blockade Strait of Hormuz after failing peace talks

On Sunday, President Donald Trump announced the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz after the peace talks with Iran ended with no resolution, reported CNBC.

The President posted on TruthSocial: "Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz," he said. "The Blockade will begin shortly. Other Countries will be involved with this Blockade. Iran will not be allowed to profit off this Illegal Act of EXTORTION."

The renewed aggression indicates the abandoning of any hope of peace talks coming to a resolution, and, if the President doesn't TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out), will increase the wave of inflation coming to the global economy as a result of rising energy prices.

Reports of Iran charging a toll to vessels wanting to pass through the strait was a move that angered Trump as Tehran tried to cement its grip on the passage amid the two-week ceasefire in the Iran War.

Wholesale inflation rose less than expected in March

On Tuesday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) delivered a bit of a surprise: it rose 0.5% in March despite the Iran War where the Dow Jones estimate was an increase of 1.1%, reported CNBC.

However, a better-than-feared print doesn't necessarily mean we're out of the inflation woods, yet, as certain elements like healthcare-related services are showing firmness and these figures feed into the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation.

In fact, some pundits believe this firmness means we shouldn't expect a rate cut anytime soon, as BofA Economist Stephen Juneau believes the PPI print "should keep the Fed firmly on hold in the near-term."

Iran declares Strait of Hormuz open to shipping; Trump says U.S. blockade still active

On Friday, markets received a nice surprise when Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz would be open to all commercial traffic despite President Trump saying the U.S. blockade of the strait was still active, reported CNBC. 

Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi posted to social media, "In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire." However, vessels must transit through a "coordinated route" announced by Iran’s maritime authorities, Araghchi said, hinting that some of the strait may be lined with water-based mines as some experts have speculated.

While Trump thanked Iran for opening the strait via social media, he said the U.S. blockade would remain in place until Tehran and the U.S. can reach an acceptable peace deal.

Despite these ongoing concerns, the markets saw through any confusion and rallied significantly with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq opening Friday trading up nearly 1%.

Next Week's Gameplan

With earnings season just kicking off, there's plenty to keep us busy next week. In terms of datapoints, we get U.S. retail sales and pending home sales on Monday; flash services & manufacturing PMIs on Thursday, and Consumer Sentiment on Friday.

In my own portfolios, I'll be closely watching the following earnings reports: 

• On Wednesday, Boeing (BA), CME Group (CME), and IBM (IBM) report BMO with Crown Castle (CCI) and Tesla (TSLA) reporting After Market Close (AMC).
• On Thursday, Caterpillar (CAT), Dow Chemical (DOW), Iridium Communications (IRDM), and Union Pacific (UNP) all report BMO with Amazon (AMZN), Digital Realty Trust (DLR), Intel (INTC), and Newmont Mining (NEM) reporting AMC.

So, it promises to be yet another wild week so join me back here next Friday to go over all the moves in the detail, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

There was plenty to get the Bitcoin Bulls excited this week when Bitcoin broke through last week’s high at $73,147.81 only to go through its 2026 high of $76,022.60, too, on Tuesday. Then, when Iran announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, Bitcoin finally broke through to the upside with gusto making a new weekly- and monthly-high at $77,037.56

The price action was constructive on the downside, too, with Bitcoin’s higher weekly-low made on Sunday before its rally at $70,512.70, much higher than last week’s low of $66,600.00.

All that being said, this is only the beginning of the repairs the Bulls need to make to the decimated technical damage done to Bitcoin’s chart. Bitcoin is still struggling to stay above the Next Support Last Resort, a key trendline I’ve used since 2018 which has consistently provided both support and resistance over nearly a decade.

Additionally, Bitcoin is contending with the 100-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) shown on red in the chart. The Bulls must flip this key moving average from resistance into support, and, even if they do, they will still need to confront and beat the much stronger 200-day EMA (in black) which is coming to meet us around the $83K mark.

The Bullish Case

Bulls continue to believe that Michael Saylor and his company, Strategy (MSTR), making additional significant purchases of Bitcoin (including some just this past week) is Bullish for the space. They argue that Strategy’s purchases have set the low for this Crypto Winter and provide Bitcoin with a floor to return to a Bull Market from here.

The Bearish Case

Bears once again point out that Strategy’s purchases have been unable to provide Bitcoin with the necessary momentum to break out of its current trading range. While Bears concede that the price action over the past two weeks has been constructive, the damage to charts with longer time-frames is massive and will require significant reversal of momentum to overturn.

Once again, Bears point out the Bulls’ argument that the low is in for this Crypto Winter directly conflicts with historical precedent. In its entire history, Bitcoin has never bottomed at less than -75% from its all-time high during a Crypto Winter and the while there’s always this possibility “this time is different,” that’s an incredibly risky investing narrative to adopt.

Bitcoin Trade Update

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto...

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges - Gemini and Coinbase - in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin's price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.
• In February 2026, Bitcoin dropped -53% to a low of $60,001.00.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

The only reason I speculate in the cryptocurrency space is I truly believe Bitcoin isn’t headed to zero.

I am prepared for that possibility, however, by knowing I could potentially lose all of the capital I’ve allocated to this speculative investment. Professional advisers recommend speculating with no more than 5% of an investor’s overall assets. Personally, I’ve allocated less than that to speculating in crypto.

I feel that anyone who doesn’t fully believe in the long-term viability of cryptocurrency would be better served not speculating in the space.

On a good day, this asset class isn’t suitable for those with weak stomachs. On volatile days, the sector can induce nausea in the most iron-willed speculator. If a speculator isn’t confident in the space, the moves will cause mistakes to be made.

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.

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If you or someone you know are having thoughts of suicide or self-harm, please contact the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline by visiting www.suicidepreventionlifeline.org or calling 1-800-273-TALK.

The hotline is open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.