Summing Up The Week

The stock market spent the week wobbling under the weight of three destabilizing storylines: cracks in the AI boom, rare dissent inside the Federal Reserve, and a potential breakthrough in the Iran conflict.

A surprise report that OpenAI is missing key revenue and user targets rattled the foundation of the market’s AI‑driven rally, triggering a broad selloff that even dragged down Bitcoin’s recent momentum.

The uncertainty carried into Wednesday as the Fed held rates steady in an unusually split 8–4 vote, punctuated by Jerome Powell’s unexpected decision to remain on the Board of Governors while the Justice Department’s investigation continues.

By Friday, sentiment flipped again when reports surfaced that Iran had formally responded to a U.S. draft peace agreement, sending oil prices lower and giving equities a much‑needed lift to close out a volatile week.

Let's take a deeper dive into the news that moved markets this week...

Market News

OpenAI misses key revenue and user targets to achieve profitability

On Tuesday, the Wall Street Journal broke a story that OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar told company leaders she is worried the company might not be able to pay for future computing contracts at its current growth rate. Friar has a storied career as the CFO of Square (now Block (XYZ)) who went on to become the CEO of the social networking platform NextDoor before moving on to OpenAI. Her insights have proven to be second-to-none as a CFO.

Accordingly, this news sent ripples throughout the entire stock market as much of what has been powering the bull rally is expectations that AI growth will continue into the future. With OpenAI being one of the leaders and the space - and one of the biggest cap-ex spenders - any concerns over their spending throws some confusion into the mix.

In a technology arms race like this, in all likelihood the other competitors including Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META), and Microsoft (MSFT) will increase their spending to take advantage of OpenAI's weakness, it's also possible the rest of the competitors will use OpenAI's faltering as an excuse to pull back on their own capital expenditures, bringing into question whether or not the AI bubble may be close to popping.

As a result, stocks sold off on Tuesday. Bitcoin, which had been rallying and showing constructive strength on the charts up until this point, also saw a substantial pullback in Tuesday's market selloff.

Fed holds rate steady; Powell announces he will stay on

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve chose to hold interest rates steady but the biggest news came when Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced he would remain in his governor role after stepping down as chairman in May, reported CNBC. 

There was a great amount dissent in the Fed decision to hold rates steady. The vote was split along 8-4 lines with Fed members pointing to different reasons for their vote. The last time the Fed saw an 8-4 vote was more than 30 years ago in October 1992. Governor Stephen Miran dissented because, as he has done sine joining the Fed in 2025, he opted for a 0.25% rate cut. The other three "no's" voted that way "in considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks."

During the news conference, Powell surprised many by announcing he would remain on the Board of Governors for an indefinite amount of time, explaining that he rightfully wants to wait until the Department of Justice's investigation into the Fed's renovation project "is well and truly over with transparency and finality."

Powell is well within his right to remain on the board as a governor as, while his term as chairman ends May 15, his term as governor doesn't end until January 2028 and he is within his rights to stay until then.

The markets closed relatively flat on the day.

Oil prices fall on report Iran sent peace agreement response

On Friday, oil prices fell and stocks rose on a report that Iran sent a response to the U.S.'s draft peace agreement, reported CNBC. The news came from Pakistan negotiators who continue to mediate relations between the U.S. and Iran. Intriguingly, the Trump administration faces a 60-day deadline to withdraw troops as a result of the 1973 War Powers Resolution.

The Trump administration argued on Friday that a ceasefire reached three weeks ago had "terminated" hostilities between the two sides, according to MSNow. This would allow the White House to avoid seeking Congressional approval for the war.

An administration official said that the absence of direct fire between U.S. forces and Iran since a ceasefire was first agreed to on April 7 means the 60-day clock no longer applies. “For War Powers Resolution purposes, the hostilities that began on Saturday, February ​28, have terminated,” an administration official told MSNow.

Next Week's Gameplan

Since next week is the first full week of a new month, the key datapoint will be Friday's payroll report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Of course, we'll get ADP payroll processor's employment report on Wednesday, too, but those two almost always contradict each other. There will be quite a bit of Fedspeak with several governors chatting throughout the week and we'll also see consumer credit on Thursday, but, outside of earnings, the jobs report will be what most people will be watching.

Speaking of earnings, with the earnings season now in full swing, there will be plenty for me to watch next week as many of my holdings will report:

Monday: Palantir (PLTR) and Pinterest (PINS) report After Market Close (AMC).

Tuesday: Cameco (CCJ), IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX), and Shopify (SHOP) report Before Market Open (BMO). AMD (AMD), Joby Aviation (JOBY), and Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) report AMC.

Wednesday: Disney (DIS) and Uber (UBER) report BMO. Arm Holdings (ARM), Dutch Bros (BROS), Equinox Gold (EQX), Nutrien (NTR), and Novo Nordisk (NVO) report AMC.

Thursday: Genius Sports (GENI) and Zoetis (ZTS) report BMO. Block (XYZ), Coinbase (COIN), DraftKings (DKNG), and Opendoor (OPEN) report AMC.

Yet another busy week with an absolute ton to discuss which, to me, is a ton of fun, so I can't wait to meet you all back here next Friday, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Bitcoin was unable to make a higher weekly-high this week when it was rejected on Monday, finding resistance at $79,496.00 - just barely under last week’s $79,523.00 - before rolling over. On Wednesday, the big orange crypto was able to find support at $74,914.00 - a higher weekly-low - which provides some constructive bullish price action.

If this week’s low fails, we’re looking at $73,741.53 which coincides nicely with the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (in orange) which is coming up to provide support to Bitcoin. Failure from that point means the EMA turns back into resistance and we’re looking at $70,512.70 followed by $66,600.00; $64,938.66; $62,938.66; $62,534.61; and $60,001.00 before new lows follow.

On the upside, Bitcoin needs to break through $79,523.00 and then contend with the almighty 200-Day EMA (in black) which is slowly making its way down to meet us currently right around $82K. Bitcoin needs to turn that resistance into support and then we’ll be looking at upside resistance at $90K and above.

The Bullish Case

With Bitcoin trading firmly in a higher range and apparently trying to use the 21-Day (in blue) EMA and 50-Day EMA (in red) as support, Bulls are cheering that the Crypto Winter is now over. Bitcoin seems to be shrugging off negative news catalysts in the equity markets, too, which Bulls point to as a sign that the crypto wants to head higher from here.

The Bearish Case

Renowned bears like @JesseOlson point to a bearish divergence combined with a bearish engulfing candle are calling for new lows to the Crypto Winter. On April 27, Olson argued that Bulls need to hold $75,310 which was tested (and failed, if only briefly) this week.

Bears continue to point out that the current pattern is emblematic of Crypto Winters of yore, and with good reason. In past cycles, Bitcoin has rallied +40% or more off of the seeming “bottom” only to roll over, lose all of that progress, and break down to new lows. So, regardless of how I want to be Bullish on Bitcoin, I need to plan for the high potential that we’re not through fighting this winter, yet.

Bitcoin Trade Update

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto...

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges - Gemini and Coinbase - in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin's price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.
• In February 2026, Bitcoin dropped -53% to a low of $60,001.00.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

The only reason I speculate in the cryptocurrency space is I truly believe Bitcoin isn’t headed to zero.

I am prepared for that possibility, however, by knowing I could potentially lose all of the capital I’ve allocated to this speculative investment. Professional advisers recommend speculating with no more than 5% of an investor’s overall assets. Personally, I’ve allocated less than that to speculating in crypto.

I feel that anyone who doesn’t fully believe in the long-term viability of cryptocurrency would be better served not speculating in the space.

On a good day, this asset class isn’t suitable for those with weak stomachs. On volatile days, the sector can induce nausea in the most iron-willed speculator. If a speculator isn’t confident in the space, the moves will cause mistakes to be made.

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.

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If you or someone you know are having thoughts of suicide or self-harm, please contact the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline by visiting www.suicidepreventionlifeline.org or calling 1-800-273-TALK.

The hotline is open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.