Summing Up The Week

The stock market spent the week ricocheting between fear and relief as the U.S.–Iran conflict once again hijacked investor sentiment.

A fresh wave of Iranian drone and missile attacks on the UAE sent oil prices surging and stocks sliding, only for optimism to roar back mid‑week when reports suggested Washington and Tehran were inching toward a peace framework; despite President Trump publicly casting doubt on any imminent deal.

By Friday, a stronger‑than‑expected payrolls report added fuel to the rebound, giving investors a rare dose of economic clarity amid a geopolitical fog that refuses to lift. 

Let's take a deeper dive into the news that moved markets this week...

Market News

U.S.-Iran tensions escalate after UAE reports drone attacks

On Monday, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) reported missile and drone attacks from Iran in direct violation to the ceasefire agreement, reported CNBC. "The UAE’s air defenses are currently dealing with missile attacks and incoming drones from Iran," said Abu Dhabi’s Defence Ministry in a translated post on its official X account.

The ministry said that "the sounds heard in various parts of the country are the result of the UAE air defense systems intercepting ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones." This followed an earlier post where the ministry said three "loitering munitions" were "intercepted over the country's territorial waters" while a fourth missile "fell into the sea."

As a result, oil prices once again surged and stocks sold off on concerns that there is no legitimate end in sight to the Iran War.

U.S.-Iran appear close to deal; oil prices fall more than 6%

On Wednesday, a report from Axios showed the United States and Iran were nearing an agreement to bring an end to the conflict with Iran's foreign ministry saying they were "evaluating" Washington's 14-point peace proposal, reported CNBC.

Two U.S. officials and two other sources briefed on the issue told Axios that the White House believes it is nearing a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding to end the war and establish a framework for more detailed nuclear talks.

However, President Donald Trump on Wednesday expressed doubt that a deal would be finalized. Trump said it was "perhaps, a big assumption" to think that Iran would accept the proposal. He threatened to resume military strikes on Iran if it did not agree.

Regardless, stocks rallied on the back of a potential end to the war.

Payrolls increased 115K in April, stronger than expected

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) payroll report showed an increase of 115,000 jobs in April, significantly better than the 55,000 estimate as well as an unemployment rate remaining stead at 4.3%, reported CNBC.

The data is "evidence of the underlying resilience of this economy and of this labor market, despite all of the slings and arrows of outrageous concerns about the Middle East and unemployment and inflation and the Fed," said Scott Clemons, Chief Investment Strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman.

However, Clemons warned that one good month does not indicate great things to come, "One month does not a new trend establish; there’s been a lot of month to month volatility in the jobs market over the past year," he said. "I’m not sure that’s completely gone away. We get another two or three months of solid job gains, then I feel a little bit more comfortable."

The markets rallied on the back of the stronger than expected report combined with hopes that a peace deal with Iran may be in the offing.

Next Week's Gameplan

Next week is all about inflation data with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) coming out on Tuesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday. Both should provide some significant insights into the actual health of the economy in the face of an inflationary tidal wave stemming from the inevitable energy crisis as a result of the Strait of Hormuz being closed for weeks after U.S. attacked Iran.

Additionally, while earnings season is waning I've still got plenty of reports to keep my eye on:

Monday: Barrick Gold (B) reports Before Market Open (BMO).
Tuesday: GrowGeneration (GRWG) reports After Market Close (AMC).
Thursday: Brookfield (BN), DeFi Technologies, and Yeti Holdings (YETI) report BMO.

So, join me here next Friday as we go over everything that moved the markets, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Bitcoin broke out to new higher-highs this week on its way to test the 200-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) in black on the chart, setting a new weekly-high of $82,814.23 on Wednesday. Bitcoin also set a much higher weekly-low at $78,034.28 on Saturday.

You may also notice that I added a new moving average, the 200-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA), in blue as my research has shown we’re now approaching a very critical juncture for Bitcoin.

So, has Bitcoin truly bottomed for this cycle?

During 2022’s Crypto Winter, Bitcoin crashed -52.27% from its all time high at $70,512.70 to its low of $32,933.33 where everyone thought it bottomed. It didn’t.

Bitcoin then rallied +46.48% from that low to $48,240.00 to test the 200-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA) where it failed to break resistance. Bitcoin then crashed -67.95% from that high, not bottoming until $15,460.00 more than eight months later, a total Crypto Winter Crash of -78.07% from its all-time high in 2021 to the final bottom in 2022.

In 2026, Bitcoin has crashed -52.49% from its all-time high of $126,296.00 down to the current low of $60,001.00 where everyone everyone thinks its bottomed. Since then, Bitcoin has rallied more than +38% to test the 200-Day SMA & EMA.

As much as I hate fractals, I also identified a simple pattern comparing September 2022 to September 2018 and even posted a warning about it on X on October 16, 2022, a few scant weeks before Bitcoin crashed nearly to the exact same day that it had in 2018, this time on the back of the FTX fraud scandal breaking:

Will these patterns repeat themselves? Of course there’s no way to be sure. As a long-term, long-only investor in Bitcoin, my job is only to be aware of what might happen and then create a plan for it. Currently, I have a sizable allocation on and I’d be perfectly happy if Bitcoin has already bottomed for this cycle and it only heads higher from here.

However, the pattern is feeling eerily similar…

The Bullish Case

Bulls are ignoring this warning and argue that Bitcoin’s strength will take it to new all-time highs. They argue that this time is different thanks to the huge amount of institutional investment in the space and the lack of sketchy companies like FTX or hysteria over NFTs - the explosion of the two bubbles which led to Bitcoin’s second leg lower in 2022.

The Bearish Case

Bears firmly believe this rally is the last vacuum of liquidity sucking in all of the FOMO crowd before Bitcoin rolls over and dumps to new lows. With all of the macroeconomic events and an energy crisis shock which is virtually guaranteed due to the Strait of Hormuz being closed entirely for weeks, Bears argue that both the equity market and Bitcoin are due for significant drawdowns. Bears are offering downside price targets for Bitcoin that line up with past cycles with lows in the $30K region and some even arguing that sub-$20K wouldn’t be impossible this time around!

Bitcoin Trade Update

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto...

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges - Gemini and Coinbase - in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin's price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.
• In February 2026, Bitcoin dropped -53% to a low of $60,001.00.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

The only reason I speculate in the cryptocurrency space is I truly believe Bitcoin isn’t headed to zero.

I am prepared for that possibility, however, by knowing I could potentially lose all of the capital I’ve allocated to this speculative investment. Professional advisers recommend speculating with no more than 5% of an investor’s overall assets. Personally, I’ve allocated less than that to speculating in crypto.

I feel that anyone who doesn’t fully believe in the long-term viability of cryptocurrency would be better served not speculating in the space.

On a good day, this asset class isn’t suitable for those with weak stomachs. On volatile days, the sector can induce nausea in the most iron-willed speculator. If a speculator isn’t confident in the space, the moves will cause mistakes to be made.

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.

Suicide Hotline - You Are Not Alone

Studies show that economic recessions cause an increase in suicide, especially when combined with thoughts of loneliness and anxiety.

If you or someone you know are having thoughts of suicide or self-harm, please contact the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline by visiting www.suicidepreventionlifeline.org or calling 1-800-273-TALK.

The hotline is open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.