Summing Up The Week

Market News

Iran closes strait; U.S. seizes shipping vessel

The situation with Iran worsened over the weekend after Iran disputed President Trump's claims of victory, announcing that the Strait of Hormuz was once again closed and that the country was not interested in negotiating with the United States, reported CNBC.

Trump said American and Iranian negotiators would resume talks in Islamabad on Monday, but Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said there was "no plan for a second round of negotiations with the U.S. for now," per Reuters. On Sunday, the U.S. Navy fired on and seized an Iranian container ship in the Gulf of Oman. Trump called Iran’s actions over the weekend a "total violation" of the truce and renewed threats to strike Iranian power plants and bridges if Tehran refuses a deal.

"We had the most violent day in the strait on Saturday that we’ve had since the beginning of this crisis, and things don’t seem to be getting any better," said Rory Johnston, Founder of Commodity Context. "While we keep getting these sell-offs and it keeps seeming like we’re about to finally get that football - Lucy pulls it away - and we’re back to where we started."

Trump extends Iran ceasefire indefinitely as peace talks continue

On Tuesday, President Donald Trump announced he would extend the ceasefire with Iran indefinitely until "discussions are concluded," reported CBS News.  Trump said he is granting the ceasefire extension at Pakistan's request, and blamed Iran's "seriously fractured" government for the delay. He said he is giving Iranian officials more time to "come up with a unified proposal."

"I have therefore directed our Military to continue the Blockade and, in all other respects, remain ready and able, and will therefore extend the Ceasefire until such time as their proposal is submitted, and discussions are concluded, one way or the other," Trump posted on Truth Social Tuesday afternoon.

Despite Iran refusing to come to the table in Pakistan over the weekend, the markets roared to life with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting new all-time highs following the report.

Trump administration reclassifies cannabis as Schedule III drug

On Thursday, the Trump administration finally made the long-awaited move to reclassify cannabis as a Schedule III drug whereas, previously, cannabis had been a Schedule I along with hard drugs including heroin and LSD, reported CNBC.

While the change does not legalize the drug at the federal level, Schedule III drugs include Tylenol with codeine and other drugs with medical applications which are subject to far fewer regulatory restrictions. The reclassification also permits the medical industry to conduct additional studies into the use of cannabis, a near-miracle drug which already has life-changing applications for epilepsy in children.

Additionally, the financial implications greatly benefit the recreational cannabis sector. The reclassification will allow companies to deduct business costs, establish banking services, and take on loans. Up until now, cannabis businesses were required to operate entirely in cash while also not being able to deduct expenses like employee payroll, rent, utilities, and supplies from their taxes resulting in a punitive tax structure for anyone involved in the industry.

"While operators would still face a fragmented state-by-state system, the improved cash flow from rescheduling would support reinvestment, strengthen stability, and help build momentum for more consistent standards over time," said Wendy Bronfein, Co-Founder and Chief Brand Officer at Curio Wellness, a Maryland-based cannabis company.

Next Week's Gameplan

Next week promises to be a big one with the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday to make a decision about interest rates. This is Chairman Jerome Powell's last meeting before he steps down as the Chair in May, and the market has all but priced-in no change to the interest rate. Expect some fireworks from President Trump after the decision is announced since he believes rates need to be lower due to the inflation wave coming from rising energy costs.

We're also getting the consumer confidence report on Tuesday; durable goods orders and housing starts on Wednesday; and GDP along with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index - the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation - on Thursday. 

On the earnings front, there are an absolute slew of companies reporting next week in which I have holdings:

Tuesday: Robinhood (HOOD), Visa (V), and Waste Management (WM) report After Market Close (AMC).

Wednesday: Amazon (AMZN), Lemonade (LMND) and Sofi Technologies (SOFI) report Before Market Open (BMO). Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META), and Microsoft (MSFT) report AMC.

Thursday: Caterpillar (CAT) reports BMO. Apple (AAPL), Rivian (RIVN), Roblox (RBLX), and Twilio (TWLO) report AMC.

Friday: Chevron (CVX) reports BMO.

Yes, next week promises to be a busy one so meet me back here next Friday so we can go over all the market moves together, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Bitcoin finally saw a breakout significantly above its previous high this week, blowing through last week’s $77,037.56 high shortly after my update went out, and then doing it again on Wednesday this week. Bitcoin found resistance at $79,523.00, its highest level since the January selloff.

Not only did Bitcoin achieve higher-highs, it managed to set a much higher low, too, with the crypto only pulling back to $73,4741.53 on Monday before reversing once more as the Bulls took control of the momentum.

Bitcoin has also managed to stay firmly above both the Next Support of Last Resort trendline (in blue) which I’ve been using since the 2018 Crypto Winter, as well as the key moving 100-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) shown on the chart in red. I expect Bitcoin to pull back to test at least the trendline if not the EMA as well.

The hope for the Bull Case is that Bitcoin will find either or both of these levels to provide support, bounce off of them, and then head on to contend with the key 200-Day EMA (shown in black) where the Bulls will have to make the same pattern of attack: break through resistance, change it to support, and move higher.

The Bullish Case

Bulls are beside themselves with some of the more optimistic ones predicting six-figure prices before the end of May. They are fully convinced that the lows of this Crypto Winter are over, that the Bears are wrong, and that there’s nothing but blue skies ahead for Bitcoin as the stock market makes new all-time highs.

The Bearish Case

Bears once again admit that the current price action in Bitcoin is constructive, however wiser Bears point out there’s so much left for the Bulls to do to fix the technical damage done to the charts. In fact, some Bears have released disturbing analysis showing the similarities between this recovery and past Crypto Winter cycles where what appeared to be a full and convincing recovery ended up being a false breakout only to see Bitcoin fall 50% lower than the cycle low the Bulls thought was the bottom.

Bitcoin Trade Update

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto...

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges - Gemini and Coinbase - in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin's price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.
• In February 2026, Bitcoin dropped -53% to a low of $60,001.00.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

The only reason I speculate in the cryptocurrency space is I truly believe Bitcoin isn’t headed to zero.

I am prepared for that possibility, however, by knowing I could potentially lose all of the capital I’ve allocated to this speculative investment. Professional advisers recommend speculating with no more than 5% of an investor’s overall assets. Personally, I’ve allocated less than that to speculating in crypto.

I feel that anyone who doesn’t fully believe in the long-term viability of cryptocurrency would be better served not speculating in the space.

On a good day, this asset class isn’t suitable for those with weak stomachs. On volatile days, the sector can induce nausea in the most iron-willed speculator. If a speculator isn’t confident in the space, the moves will cause mistakes to be made.

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.

Suicide Hotline - You Are Not Alone

Studies show that economic recessions cause an increase in suicide, especially when combined with thoughts of loneliness and anxiety.

If you or someone you know are having thoughts of suicide or self-harm, please contact the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline by visiting www.suicidepreventionlifeline.org or calling 1-800-273-TALK.

The hotline is open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.