Summing Up The Week

Despite uncertainty coming on from multiple fronts, the stock market held up remarkably well during this shortened trading week. The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran remains top of mind as the U.S. has enacted a two-week deadline before deciding whether or not to enter the war.

Meanwhile, consumers are pulling back on spending over concerns about tariffs and homebuilder sentiment has dropped to lows not seen since the pandemic. There’s certainly quite a bit of unknowns out there keeping market participants on their toes.

Let’s take a deeper dive into the news that moved markets this week…

Market News

Israel-Iran conflict escalates

Despite the market rallying on Monday on beliefs that the Israel-Iran conflict would be settled shortly, stocks sold off on Tuesday when President Donald Trump signaled the conflict was escalating, reported CNBC.

Trump left the Group of Seven (G7) summit he was attending, stating that his early departure was due to “much bigger” things than planning a ceasefire between Tel Aviv and Tehran, shortly after he urged people to “immediately evacuate Tehran.”

Consumers pull back out of fear of rising prices

On Tuesday, retail sales fell 0.9% in May which was worse than the 0.6% expected as consumers pulled back on spending, reported CNBC. Even adjusted for seasonality, the reduction in spending indicates consumers are concerned over the tariffs and rising prices.

Whereas consumers front-ran the tariffs before May, they are now holding off unless they can get the prices they want. “Americans bought cars in March ahead of tariffs and stayed away from car dealerships in May. Families are wary of higher prices and are being a lot more selective with where they spend their money,” said Heather Long, Chief Economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “People are hunting for deals and aren’t eager to buy unless they see a good one.”

Homebuilder sentiment nears pandemic lows

On Tuesday, the Homebuilder Sentiment Survey showed a drop of 2 points in June to 32, almost near the pandemic lows, reported CNBC. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) teams up with Wells Fargo to produce the index with anything below 50 being considered negative.

The combination of high interest rates and tariff concerns have left buyers uninterested in the housing market. “Buyers are increasingly moving to the sidelines due to elevated mortgage rates and tariff and economic uncertainty,” said Buddy Hughes, NAHB Chairman and a homebuilder from Lexington, North Carolina, in a release. “To help address affordability concerns and bring hesitant buyers off the fence, a growing number of builders are moving to cut prices.”

Even with rising inventory levels, homebuyers are holding off in hopes prices will come down as well as the potential for interest rate cuts. “Rising inventory levels and prospective home buyers who are on hold waiting for affordability conditions to improve are resulting in weakening price growth in most markets and generating price declines for resales in a growing number of markets,” said Robert Dietz, Chief Economist at the NAHB. “Given current market conditions, NAHB is forecasting a decline in single-family starts for 2025.”

Fed holds rates the same, sees 2 more cuts this year

On Wednesday, to what should have been the surprise to no one, the Federal Reserve announced its decision to keep the benchmark interest rate the same and that the FOMC sees two more cuts later in 2025, reported CNBC. Despite President Trump jawboning Fed Chair Jerome Powell on social media and in interviews at every opportunity, Powell and the rest of the Fed decided not to cut rates, just as the market anticipated.

The committee continues to point to the cloudy outlook for tariffs and a potential trade war as the reason to pause. “Uncertainty about the economic outlook has diminished but remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate,” the committee said in a statement.

During his press conference following the meeting, Powell reiterated the committee’s sentiment, “For the time being, we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policies.”

Trump sets 2-week deadline for Iranian strike

On Thursday evening, President Donald Trump announced he would not make a decision about possibly entry into the Israel-Iran conflict for two weeks, reported CNBC. Officials from Europe and Tehran plan to hold talks in Geneva in an attempt to de-escalate the ongoing conflict with Israel.

Iran has been developing a uranium enrichment program which their officials claim is for energy reactors, not a nuclear bomb, however the rest of the world is nearly certain those claims are false. Israel likely doesn’t have the necessary munitions to take out Iran’s enrichment facilities which are buried deep underground, however the U.S. military does have the bunker-busting bombs that would be able to do the job.

However, should the U.S. enter the fray, the actions could have dramatic consequences on relations with other Middle Eastern countries.  “Based on the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks,” said Trump, according to a statement read out on Thursday by White House Spokesperson Karoline Leavitt.

Next Week’s Gameplan

Next week brings more potentially market-moving catalysts with the S&P flash services and manufacturing PMI on Monday followed by the Consumer Confidence survey results on Tuesday. On Wednesday, we get to hear about new home sales for May with GDP and durable goods orders on Thursday.

However, the big datapoint comes on Friday in the form of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for May, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation. While the CPI and PPI showed no inflation surprise for May, the PCE doesn’t always perfectly align, so we might see inflation or we could see similar disinflation that we saw earlier in June from May’s CPI and PPI.

So, we’ve got another exciting week ahead and I’ll meet everyone back here on Friday to discuss the news that made the markets move, my friends!

Check out Get Irked Premium on Substack!

After providing FREE content since 2018, the time constraints of producing Investments in Play, Speculation in Play, the Pandemic Portfolio, and Stock Shopping List have become too much to continue doing for free.

On Substack, you can subscribe for FREE to have the Week in Review and Crypto Corner, now separate newsletters, sent to your email inbox at no cost. The portfolio updates and Stock Shopping List are now part of a premium subscription plan.

I hope you will join me on Substack as I continue on this exciting journey!

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ONGOING SUPPORT!

Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Bitcoin’s Next Wild Ride: Meltdown or Moonshot?

Bitcoin continued to see buyers (including me) step in to buy when it pulled back to the key moving average support levels over the past week. Bitcoin set a lower weekly-high at $109,000.00 on Monday before rolling over and setting a higher weekly-low at $103,363.00 on Tuesday.

With the big orange crypto trading tightly in a range, Bulls and Bears want to know the answer to one question: is Bitcoin melting down or is it melting up?

The Bullish Case

Bulls point to the buying at support a potential indication that buyer appetite hasn’t waned and that the sellers might be running out of steam. Bulls believe it’s only a matter of time before the Bears have completely exhausted themselves and Bitcoin will catapult itself to new all-time highs. Some Bulls believe Bitcoin might see $120K before the end of June, however the more level-headed ones think June might see a continuation of the current price consolidation.

The Bearish Case

Bears continue to argue that Bitcoin is losing momentum. Like I mentioned last week, Bitcoin has a historical tendency to lose support if it tests a key level three times. However, that key low right now is the $100K mark and Bitcoin was able to find support quite a bit above it when it pulled back this week. That being said, the Bears are still pounding the table that the geopolitical concerns mean Bitcoin – which they consider to be a “risk asset” and not a “safe haven” – will eventually crash once again.

Bitcoin Trade Update

Premium subscribers to Get Irked get access to all the moves I’ve made in my Bitcoin trade over the past week as well as my next thirty (30) … yes, 30 … buys in Bitcoin including price levels, quantities, and a full layout of my ongoing long-term trade in the world’s biggest crypto.

If you aren’t already, subscribe to my Substack today!

Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.