Summing Up The Week

A tumultuous week between President Donald Trump calling China “difficult to deal with” down to an all-out war of words between Trump and Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla (TSLA), over Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” which promises to cut taxes but increase spending.

However, the market shrugged all of the negative news catalysts off when Friday’s job report came in better than expected, causing the markets to rally once again!

Let’s take a look at all the news that moved the markets this week…

Market News

Trade war tensions rise between U.S. and China

Over the weekend, the trade war shenanigans continued when President Donald Trump announced 50% tariffs on imported steel. However, the situation continued when, on Sunday evening, China countered Trump’s accusations of trade deal violations saying the U.S. undermined consensus, reported CNBC.

China claimed the steps taken by the Trump administration to rachet up export restrictions – specifically on semiconductor design software and chemicals to China – “seriously undermine[d]” the deal reached in Geneva.

Beijing is “comfortable taking an extremely firm stance in these negotiations” and “sees no reason to roll over,” said Stephen Olson, Visiting Senior Fellow at Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. “It is well understood in Beijing that any deal reached with the U.S. will only buy some short-term peace, not the end of the story.”

The escalating tensions resulted in the stock market indexes pulling back before Monday’s open with the S&P 500 down nearly -0.50% and the Nasdaq down more than -0.60%. However, investors bought the dip betting on the so-called “TACO Trade” (a Financial Times journalist quoted the term to describe “Trump Always Chickens Out”) betting that Trump will back out and this dip will be short-lived.

Payrolls increased 139K in May, more than expected, unemployment at 4.2%

On Friday, May’s nonfarm payrolls report showed that the economy added 139,000 jobs in the month, above the Dow Jones estimate for 125,000, and the unemployment rate held at 4.2%, reported CNBC.

Pundits pointed to a strong payrolls report as the reason for the continued rally in the stock market. “Stronger than expected jobs growth and stable unemployment underlines the resilience of the US labor market in the face of recent shocks,” said Lindsay Rosner, Head of Multi-Sector Fixed Income Investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

However, some economists believe there is still bad news to come for the economy. “The May jobs report still has everyone waiting for the other shoe to drop,” said Daniel Zhao, Lead Economist at job rating site Glassdoor. “This report shows the job market standing tall, but as economic headwinds stack up cumulatively, it’s only a matter of time before the job market starts straining against those headwinds.”

Regardless, the markets took the jobs report as positive with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rallying more than 1% to start Friday’s trading.

Next Week’s Gameplan

While the payroll report is always exciting in terms of potential market-moving catalysts, next week is far from empty as we get both inflation and sentiment data. 

On Wednesday, we get the “all-important” Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June. While the Federal Reserve isn’t as focused on CPI as it is on the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), the stock market very much reacts to strong or weak CPI results.

On Thursday, we get to see the Producer Price Index (PPI) for June. Typically, the PPI is directly correlated to the CPI and I’ve never seen the PPI make the market move without supporting evidence from CPI. However, there is always a first time for everything, right?

On Tuesday and Friday, we will receive “soft data,” in the forms of the NFIB Optimism Index and the Consumer Sentiment survey results. How are individuals thinking about the economy, inflation, and the stock market? We’ll find out.

So, it promises to be yet another busy week! Meet me back here next Friday and we’ll take a deeper dive into it, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Is the ceiling crashing on Bitcoin? Will this trading range break out… or break down?

Bitcoin started to trade in a lower range this week. While it continues to strongly perform above the key psychological support at $100,000, Bitcoin did break down below last week’s low at $104,624.00. On Saturday, it fell through support and made a lower weekly-low at $103,110.01.

That bearish break continued with Bitcoin breaking through the next key support at $100,703.71 on Thursday and not finding a new weekly-low until $100,345.73 late Thursday evening.

The Bullish Case

Bulls argue that as long as Bitcoin remains above key support lines like the 50-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA), that all signs point to staying bullish. Some believe we’ll see Bitcoin achieve a higher all-time high before the end of June with the more bullish among them believing $125K and even higher is possible within the coming weeks.

The Bearish Case

Bears can always find a way to make lemons out of lemonade. Some Bears argue that since Bitcoin’s new all-time high was only 3.33% higher than its past high that it signifies a lack of buying interest. With no new buyers to add to the momentum, these Bears believe another substantial pullback of -20% or more is in store.

While I always take both sides into account, arguing that Bitcoin’s new all-time high wasn’t as “robust” as past breakouts seems a little crazy to me. Bitcoin rallied more than +50% from its April low to its new all time high in a matter of a six weeks. Of course there needs to be some price consolidation to digest a move like that!

However, if the Bears are right and Bitcoin is about to pull back significantly, readers know I will be there to buy the dip (or crash) with both hands!

Bitcoin Trade Update

Premium subscribers to Get Irked get access to all the moves I’ve made in my Bitcoin trade over the past week as well as my next thirty (30) … yes, 30 … buys in Bitcoin including price levels, quantities, and a full layout of my ongoing long-term trade in the world’s biggest crypto.

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.