Summing Up The Week

While the last week may have been a shortened trading week thanks to the Memorial Day weekend, the list of prominent news events was certainly not short.

The market received a bullish shot in the arm over the last weekend when Trump delayed his 50% tariffs on the European Union only to receive a booster shot Wednesday evening when the International Trade Court struck down all of Trump’s tariffs entirely.

Then, on Thursday evening, the tariffs were reinstated by an appeals court only to be followed by Trump attacking China over reneging on a preliminary trade deal on Friday!

As ex-U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld famously said in a briefing on February 12, 2002, “there are unknown unknowns.” The concept is that there are events we do know could happen but the ones to watch out for are the ones we don’t even know are potentials. This week was a key example of that!

Now, let’s take a deeper dive into the news that moved the markets…

Market News

Markets rally after Trump delays EU tariffs

On Tuesday, the stock market rallied after President Donald Trump announced over the weekend that he would be delaying the 50% tariffs on the European Union which initiated on Friday, reported CNBC. Making Volatility Great Again, baby!

As I said back when Trump was first elected, there are many market participants who seem to have worn rose-colored glasses regarding Trump’s first term, arguing that it wasn’t a volatile time period. When looking at the Volatility Index (VIX) which measures volatility using option pricing 30-days out, the indicator can actually lag quite a bit on open and closing prices.

As a result, intraday volatility isn’t accurately represented as many analysts use the open or close (typically the close) of the day to calculate average volatility over a given time period. However, having lived through Trump’s first term where I actually made a decent amount of profit trading SPY options, I can tell you there was a huge amount of volatility even before COVID sent everything tumbling.

Regardless, we’re back in that volatility era, so it’s important for me to stick to one of my top rules: “Only buy on red and only sell on green.” In other words, buy weakness and sell strength. Chasing either direction will only result in investors and traders getting their faces ripped off when the market inevitably whipsaws in the other direction.

U.S. Durable Goods come in better-than-feared, still down -6.3%

On Tuesday, the Commerce Department announced that U.S. durable goods orders fell -6.3% in April, however that data was better than expected as economists expected a -7.6% drop, reported Kitco News.

Analysts and market commentators gave mixed interpretations, with a lean toward cautious or bearish sentiment for the broader economy, tempered by some optimism due to the better-than-expected headline figure.

Bullish Perspectives:

• The fact that the headline drop of 6.3% was less severe than the forecasted 7.8% is seen as a mitigating factor, softening the negative impact on the U.S. dollar (USD). A higher-than-expected reading is generally considered bullish for the USD, and this “less bad” result provides some support.
• The slight uptick in core durable goods orders (+0.2% vs. -0.1% expected) suggests resilience in non-transportation manufacturing, which some analysts view as a positive sign for underlying economic activity.

Bearish Perspectives:

• The 6.3% decline in headline durable goods orders reflects a significant slowdown in manufacturing activity, raising concerns about economic momentum. Some pundits pointed to “deeper rot” and “supply chain chaos” from prior policies, suggesting structural issues in the manufacturing sector.
• The 1.3% drop in core capital goods orders, a key indicator of business investment, signals hesitation among businesses to commit to long-term spending, potentially due to economic uncertainty or policy shifts. This is viewed as a bearish signal for future economic growth.

Some more bearish analysts expressed outright pessimism, stating that the decline in durable goods orders is a negative sign for the U.S. economy, with no positive spin possible. However, the market did not take these bearish outlooks into account – at least in the short term – as stocks rallied significantly on Tuesday following the delay of the EU tariffs with the S&P 500 closing the day up +2.05% and the Nasdaq up +2.47%.

Federal trade court strikes down Trump’s tariffs

In a surprise move on Wednesday, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that President Donald Trump exceeded “any authority granted” by the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and struck down all off his worldwide and reciprocal tariffs, ordering the administration stop collecting them, reported CNBC.

“The Worldwide and Retaliatory Tariff Orders exceed any authority granted to the President by IEEPA to regulate importation by means of tariffs,” the judges wrote in their ruling. Additionally, the Court also ruled against the Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese tariffs related to drug trafficking writing, “Specific tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China related to drug trafficking … fail because they do not deal with the threats set forth in those orders.”

As a result, the stock market rallied significantly during extended-hours trading following the court’s ruling. Additionally, while Nvidia (NVDA) did end up blowing away expectations and giving good guidance during its quarterly report, the striking down of Trump’s tariffs was the real positive news catalyst on Wednesday.

Trump tariffs reinstated by appeals court

On Thursday, a federal appeals court granted a temporary pause to the Wednesday’s court ruling that struck down Trump’s tariffs, reported CNBC. The Trump administration told the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit that it was considering seeking “emergency relief” from the Supreme Court.

The plaintiffs in the original case remained optimistic that the lower court ruling would stand. “This is merely a procedural step as the court considers the government’s request for a longer stay pending appeal,” said Jeffrey Schwab, a lawyer for the business plaintiffs, in a statement. “We are confident the Federal Circuit will ultimately deny the government’s motion shortly thereafter, recognizing the irreparable harm these tariffs inflict on our clients.” 

In other words, investors should expect more tariff whipsaws headed into the future.

Inflation drops to 2.1% in April, lower than expected

On Friday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, showed the rate of inflation slipping to 2.1% in April, lower than expected, reported CNBC. The annual inflation rate now stands at 2.1%, the lowest of 2025.

However, consumer spending also slowed sharply in April with only a 0.2% increase which was much slower than 0.7% from March. Given that the U.S. economy depends almost entirely on consumption, a slowing consumer could mean a slowing The real news that drove Friday’s moves was Trump’s comments on China, though (see below).

Trump accuses China of violating preliminary trade deal

On Friday, President Donald Trump said China violated a preliminary trade agreement with the United States and suggested he would take responsive action, reported CNBC.  “So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!” Trump wrote in a social media post where he claimed China had ignored a deal that paused retaliatory tariffs between that country and the U.S.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, in a CNBC interview Friday morning, reinforced Trump’s claim, “We’re very concerned with [China],” and went on to say that the “United States did exactly what it was supposed to do, and the Chinese are slow rolling their compliance.” He called that “completely unacceptable and has to be addressed.”

As a result, the stock market sold off a bit going into the end of the week as investors prepared for another weekend of possibly tumultuous news stories.

Next Week’s Gameplan

After all of the unexpected news catalysts that hit the markets this past shortened trading week, it’s always key to remember that the “unknown unknowns” are something investors should always keep in the back of our minds. That being said, there is plenty we do know about next week which could drive markets.

On Monday, we get the manufacturing ISM and PMI numbers followed by services ISM and PMI numbers on Thursday. Then, on Friday, we get the U.S. payrolls report for May. While last month’s jobs report was actually a strong one, economists believe this is the report where we’ll start to see the results of Federal employee terminations combined with substantial layoffs mentioned by some of the S&P 500 including thousands being fired at Microsoft (MSFT).

Believe it or not, we’re still not done with earnings season. For me,  I only have one report I’m checking out next week and that will be cybersecurity play Crowdstrike (CRWD) which reports after-the-bell on Tuesday. Given Palo Alto Network’s (PANW) oddly bearish price action after giving a great report, it will be interesting to see how the market responds to competitor Crowdstrike.

As always, I’ll meet you back here next Friday to cover the week’s events, friends!

Check out Get Irked Premium on Substack!

After providing FREE content since 2018, the time constraints of producing Investments in Play, Speculation in Play, the Pandemic Portfolio, and Stock Shopping List have become too much to continue doing for free.

On Substack, you can subscribe for FREE to have the Week in Review and Crypto Corner, now separate newsletters, sent to your email inbox at no cost. The portfolio updates and Stock Shopping List are now part of a premium subscription plan.

I hope you will join me on Substack as I continue on this exciting journey!

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ONGOING SUPPORT!

Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Consolidation has Started! Let the Bitcoin Battle Begin!

Bitcoin consolidated over the past week, trading in a new range. First, Bitcoin set a much higher weekly-low on Sunday at $106,632.35 before reversing course and setting a lower weekly-high at $110,829.42 on Tuesday. On Thursday, Bitcoin set a lower weekly-low at $104,624.00.

Price consolidation typically happens whenever an asset hits a new high and retreats, and consolidation is particularly likely when the underlying asset makes a new all-time high like Bitcoin did at $112,000.00 last week.

The Bullish Case

Bulls point to positive news flow as well as significant inflows into the Bitcoin ETFs as reasons for this price consolidation to be “the pause that refreshes.” The Bulls believe that Bitcoin will continue to burn off its overbought conditions before heading to new higher all-time highs with some Bulls predicting we’ll see Bitcoin $125K before the end of June.

The Bearish Case

Bears argue that price consolidation often resolves in a lower direction, particularly with Bitcoin. Some Bears are pointing to 2021 where Bitcoin made a then all-time high near $69K, retreated 30-40%, roared back to make a slightly higher all-time higher just over $69,000, and then crashed more than -70%.

Many Bears do not think a pullback of that magnitude is likely but suggest another drawdown of 20-30% from Bitcoin’s new all-time high isn’t out of the question.

Bitcoin Trade Update

Premium subscribers to Get Irked get access to all the moves I’ve made in my Bitcoin trade over the past week as well as my next thirty (30) … yes, 30 … buys in Bitcoin including price levels, quantities, and a full layout of my ongoing long-term trade in the world’s biggest crypto.

If you aren’t already, subscribe to my Substack today!

Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.