Summing Up The Week

The stock market swayed with every news story revolving around trade deals this week with stocks and Bitcoin rising and falling at the whims of President Donald Trump.

The Federal Reserve announced no change to the benchmark interest rate which should come as no surprise to anyone paying attention.

Going into the weekend, investors are a bit wary as Treasury Scott Bessent makes his way to Switzerland to begin negotiations with China.

Let’s take a look at the news that moved the markets this week…

Market News

Fed holds rates steady, noting uncertainty and stagnation risk

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced they would make no change to the benchmark interest rate due to macroeconomic uncertainties and the risk of stagflation, a move which should have come to a surprise as no one, reported CNBC.

“Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further,” the Fed said in a statement released to the public. “The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.”

While initially pulling back slightly following the announcement, stocks ended up finishing the day higher on Wednesday, likely due to the fact that no change to the benchmark rate was the consensus outcome heading into the FOMC press conference.

Trump announces “comprehensive” deal with UK

On Thursday, President Donald Trump announced a “full and comprehensive” trade agreement between the United States and the United Kingdom, reported CNBC. The deal made Britain the first country to sign an agreement with the United States since Trump announced his “reciprocal” tariffs in early April.

In a post on Truth Social, U.S. President Donald Trump said Thursday: “The agreement with the United Kingdom is a full and comprehensive one that will cement the relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom for many years to come.”

Trump went on, “Because of our long time history and allegiance together, it is a great honor to have the United Kingdom as our FIRST announcement. Many other deals, which are in serious stages of negotiation, to follow!”

As a result of the beginning of perhaps seeing light at the end of the Trade War tunnel, stocks rallied at the open of trading on Thursday.

Trump teases cutting China tariff rate

Trump’s hints that trade talks may be coming continued when, on Friday, Trump suggested lowering the tariff rate on China from 145% to 80% as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent heads to Switzerland for talks with China counterparts this weekend, reported CNBC.

While that cut would represent a significant discount, an 80% tariff is still unwieldy, pundits argued. “An 80% levy would be a significant reduction from the 145% tariff currently facing many Chinese goods. However, that number could still be seen as prohibitive to trade. It is also much higher than the 10% baseline tariff in the U.S.-U.K. trade agreement that was announced Thursday.” reported CNBC.

Next Week’s Gameplan

Next week sees all of the inflation reports roll in. First, we get to take a look at the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April on Tuesday morning followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. Also on Thursday, we’ll get to see U.S. retail sales for April which could be very interesting as consumers may have tried to front-run the tariffs being implemented.

The big daddies may have already reported earnings but that doesn’t mean the game is over for my portfolio. Next week is still relatively quiet, but Take Two Interactive (TTWO) will be one to watch on Thursday after the bell since they announced they were pushing back Grand Theft Auto 6 – the next installment of their best-selling video game series and what is quite possibly the largest-earning game in the entire industry – from this fall all the way to May 2026.

Plus, throw into all of that the uncertainty of the ongoing Trade War with trade deals supposedly being negotiated at every minute of every day and we’ve got another busy week ahead of us!

And, as always, I will be here next Friday to provide the rundown so I’ll see you here, friends! 

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Bitcoin isn’t “Digital Gold” yet… and that’s not a BAD thing!

The theory some analysts had about Bitcoin breaking correlation with growth, tech, and software stocks to become its own “Digital Gold” was put back to bed this week when Bitcoin rallied directly with the tech sector. The idea of Bitcoin being a safe haven asset remains unproven as overwhelming evidence shows that it both rallies and sells off in tandem with risk-on assets.

This isn’t a bad thing.

Just because Bitcoin remains a risk-on asset doesn’t mean it can’t make investors money and it proved just that this week. Bitcoin’s breakout that it started last week positively exploded this week! First, the pullback was bullish, too, making a higher weekly low at $93,363.28 on Tuesday before the rocket ship took off.

Bitcoin blew threw last week’s $97,546.99 high and followed through by demolishing potential resistance deep above $100K on Thursday, not stopping before it made a new high at $104,352.60 on Friday, an incredible run!

The Bullish Case

Bulls cheered Bitcoin’s upward momentum as more proof to support the narrative that the low point for this cycle may be truly be in. With Bitcoin firmly in an upward price trajectory, some of the more shy permabulls have come out of the woodwork to once again claim new all-time highs may becoming for Bitcoin in the next few weeks.

The Bearish Case

The Bears’ arguments that macroeconomic uncertainty and Trump’s tariffs would cause Bitcoin to break through its cycle low at $74,420.69 lose more and more water with each passing day and week. Some permabears still contend that Bitcoin’s rally could just be a Bear Market rally, arguing that Bitcoin needs to make a new all-time high above $109,358.01 before they will be convinced this is a new Bull Market.

Bitcoin Trade Update

Premium subscribers to Get Irked get access to all the moves I’ve made in my Bitcoin trade over the past week as well as my next thirty (30) … yes, 30 … buys in Bitcoin including price levels, quantities, and a full layout of my ongoing long-term trade in the world’s biggest crypto.

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.