Summing Up The Week

This week proved that the labor market remains strong in the U.S. despite a contracting economy. Inflation also appeared in March to slow which kept calls for stagflation at bay, for now.

Unfortunately, the lagging data still hasn’t revealed the effects of President Donald Trump’s tariffs with many experts calling for distinct pain in the coming weeks and months.

In the meantime, let’s look at the news that moved the markets this week…

Market News

U.S. economy shrank 0.3% in first quarter

On Wednesday, the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed the economy shrank 0.3% on an annualized pace in the first quarter due to the massive tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, reported CNBC. Economists had actually been looking for a gain of 0.4% in the quarter, but had to switch their outlooks as companies started pulling back on plans due to the uncertainty posed by the macroeconomic conditions.

“Maybe some of this negativity is due to a rush to bring in imports before the tariffs go up, but there is simply no way for policy advisors to sugar-coat this. Growth has simply vanished,” said Chris Rupkey, Chief Economist at Fwdbonds.

For many experts, the lack of growth was not a shock at all. “No surprise that GDP took a hit in the first quarter, mainly because the balance of trade blew up as companies imported goods like crazy to front-run tariffs. The more telling number for the future of the expansion was consumer spending, and it grew, but at a relatively weak pace,” said Robert Frick, Corporate Economist with Navy Federal Credit Union. “That’s concerning, but not alarming as it could have been due to bad weather and a spending surge at the end of last year.”

Inflation slowed in March, but that was before the Trade War

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve’s favorite gauge of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, showed inflation slowed to 2.3% in March, however that’s before the Trade War’s effects, reported MarketWatch. The Fed’s efforts to reduce inflation appeared to have been working, however the likely hyper-inflationary results of Trump’s proposed tariffs could undo a lot of their work.

“The stall in March suggests that price pressures were muted at the end of the quarter, providing a welcome but temporary reprieve before tariffs kicked into high gear,” said Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, Senior Economist of BMO Capital Markets.

Jobs Report blows away expectations with 177K new jobs

On Friday, the “all-important jobs report” revealed that 177,000 new nonfarm payrolls were added in March, far above the Dow Jones estimate for 133,000, and unemployment held at 4.2% as expected, reported CNBC. Both figures revealing the labor market is holding stable despite calls for Elon’s DOGE department Federal jobs cuts to send the labor market into a tailspin.

The results left analysts feeling relieved and explaining the market could survive to fight for another month. “We can push recession concerns to another month. Job numbers remain very strong, suggesting there was an impressive degree of resilience in the economy in play before the tariff shock,” said Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management. “The economy will weaken in the coming months but, with this underlying momentum, the U.S. has a decent chance of averting recession if it can step back from the tariff brink in time.”

Next Week’s Gameplan

Next week sees the Federal Reserve meeting with the all-important rate decision coming out on Wednesday. We also get a look at consumer credit that afternoon, too, which will likely be overshadowed by what the Fed decides to do (or not do).

There will be plenty on the earnings front, too, with my focus specifically on:

• Palantir Technologies (PLTR) after the bell on Monday.
• Genius Sports (GENI), Lemonade (LMND), and Zoetis (ZTS) before the market open on Tuesday;
• AMD (AMD), Equinox (EQX), and Rivian (RIVN) after the bell on Tuesday;
• Disney (DIS) Barrick Gold (GOLD), and Nutrien (NTR) before the bell on Wednesday;
• Arm Holdings (ARM), Dutch Bros (BROS), and Skyworks (SWKS) after the bell on Wednesday;
• Shopify (SHOP) before the bell on Thursday;
• And Brookfield (BN), Coinbase (COIN), DraftKings (DKNG), GrowGeneration (GRWG), Pinterest (PINS), and Yeti (YETI) all piling in after the close on Thursday.

So, the weeks aren’t slowing down; not by a long shot! I’ll see you back here to cover all the wild workings next Friday, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Has Bitcoin Finally Become “Digital Gold?”

Bitcoin’s breakout continued this week with the big orange crypto cracking through last week’s high at $95,976.34 and not setting resistance until $97,546.99 on Thursday. Additionally, the bullish action continued in pullbacks with Bitcoin making a much higher weekly low at $92,829.44 on Monday, indicating that the buyers are coming in to snatch up every dip.

Has Bitcoin finally become “digital gold” like all the Bitcoiners have been promising for more than a decade now? It actually could be as the correlation between Bitcoin and tech/growth stocks seems to have broken, at least for the moment.

The Bullish Case

Bulls maintain the narrative that Bitcoin has become its own “safe haven” asset similar to digital gold or even cash. Inflows into Bitcoin – both spot and the ETFs – continue to increase at a global scale which have prompted many Bulls to claim a new all-time high is in sight with some predicting it could happen as soon as by the end of May.

The Bearish Case

Bears continue to lick their wounds as Bitcoin outperforms week after week. While there are still the permabears screaming that Bitcoin is worthless and is headed to zero, the more level-headed Bears have conceded that the Bitcoin breakout seems legitimate.

The more even-keeled Bears warn that macroeconomic uncertainty and a marketwide crash due to the next breakdown of the Japanese Yen-Carry Trade would likely take Bitcoin down with the markets, it’s hard to deny that the Bulls have the momentum in crypto right now.

Bitcoin Trade Update

Premium subscribers to Get Irked get access to all the moves I’ve made in my Bitcoin trade over the past week as well as my next thirty (30) … yes, 30 … buys in Bitcoin including price levels, quantities, and a full layout of my ongoing long-term trade in the world’s biggest crypto.

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.