Summing Up The Week

Even in the throes of earnings season with economic datapoints released nearly daily, the movement of the markets has been dominated by comments from the Trump administration, China, and talk of tariffs and the the ongoing Trade War.

On Monday, the markets reeled at the possibility of Trump firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell following posts made by Trump on his Truth Social account. Following all indexes finishing the day substantially, Trump tried to walk back his comments on Tuesday afternoon, claiming he had “no intention” of ever terminating Powell prior to the end of his term in May 2026.

On Wednesday, the Trump administration announced that there were active and ongoing talks between China and the United States regarding the tariffs and coming to a trade deal only to have China denounce those comments on Thursday, claiming that there were no ongoing talks between the two countries at this time.

When Trump was re-elected, I told readers to expect that he would “Make Volatility Great Again,” and he certainly has not disappointed.

Let’s take a look at the news that moved markets this week…

Market News

Trump calls Powell “loser,” demands lower rates

On Monday, President Donald Trump spurred concerns that he might try to terminate Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, calling him a “loser” and demanding the Fed lower rates “NOW” in a post on Truth Social, reported CNBC. 

Trump claimed there is “virtually No Inflation” in the United States, “With these costs trending so nicely downward, just what I predicted they would do, there can almost be no inflation, but there can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW.”

Economists point out a distinct erroneous logic to Trump’s approach – lowering the benchmark interest rate only affects short-term rates. Firing Powell will likely cause a huge amount of distrust in markets that the Federal Reserve will remain independent from the government. This thinking could spur the selling of U.S. Treasurys by foreign holders – with China and Japan representing the largest holders of U.S. debt – which would drive down the price of Treasurys and increase the rate of the longer-term bonds.

This is decidedly not the outcome that Trump has claimed to desire, however his increasing rhetoric makes some experts believe he may be setting Powell up for an imminent termination. As a result, markets sold off on Monday as Powell’s termination would be a decidedly negative tactic for global markets.

Trump claims he has “no intention” of firing Powell

After sending the markets into a downward spiral over fears he might terminate Fed Chair Powell on Monday, Trump declared he had “no intention” of firing Powell before his term expires in 2026 on Tuesday evening, reported CNBC. When asked in the Oval Office if he ever had intentions to remove Powell, Trump said, “None whatsoever. Never did.”

Pundits point to an ongoing pattern in the Trump administration’s behavior: let loose rhetoric regarding a particular move to test the market’s reaction. If the market reacts poorly, the administration pulls back on the remarks and claims it was never the intent. If the market reacts positively, the administration goes through with the intent of the rhetoric.

As a result of Trump’s turnaround on Powell… *cough* … “clarification that he never intended for Powell’s termination”… *cough* … the stock market rallied across all indexes.

China claims no ongoing talks in Trade War

Following comments from the Trump administration that talks were proceeding between China and the U.S. regarding the implemented tariffs, China officials announced that there were no ongoing trade talks with U.S., calling for complete cancelation of the “unilateral” tariffs on Thursday, reported CNBC.

“At present there are absolutely no negotiations on the economy and trade between China and the U.S.,” Ministry of Commerce Spokesperson He Yadong told reporters in Mandarin, translated by CNBC. He added that “all sayings” regarding progress on bilateral talks should be dismissed, “If the U.S. really wants to resolve the problem … it should cancel all the unilateral measures on China.”

Pundits believe that China does want to see the Trade War deescalate as it damages the economies of all involved, however the country wants to see it happen in a reasonable manner without bullying. “China definitely wants to see the trade war deescalate, as it hurts both economies,” said Yue Su, Principal Economist for China at The Economist Intelligence Institute. “However, due to the inconsistency of Trump’s policies and the lack of clarity around what he actually wants, China’s strategy has shifted from focusing on ‘what you need’ to ‘what I need.’ Their request for the U.S. to cancel ‘unilateral’ tariffs reflects that shift.”

Durable Goods Orders surged 9.2% in March

While it should come as a surprise to no one, Thursday’s durable goods orders for March showed an increased of 9.2% versus the 1.6% increase expected by Dow Jones economists as companies and consumers rushed to get their orders for big-ticket items in ahead of Trump’s tariffs, reported CNBC.

“Durable goods” include big-ticket items like aircraft parts, automobiles, trucks, home appliances, computers, jewelry and other long-lasting items with bigger prices than consumer staples like groceries or home goods like toilet paper.

According to CNBC, “The advanced report reflects a pull-forward effect as Trump dangled threats against U.S. trading partners through March before announcing his ‘Liberation Day’ duties on April 2.” 

Next Week’s Gameplan

Next week sees the Consumer Confidence survey for April drop on Tuesday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index drop on Wednesday, and, the critical datapoint, April’s payroll employment report drop on Friday. April’s jobs report will provide key insights into the results of Elon Musk’s DOGE department firings throughout the Federal government. A weakening job market will definitely not be a positive for stocks as it would signify a further slowdown in the U.S. economy.

Of course, we’re also in the middle of earnings season with Meta Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) both reporting after the bell on Wednesday along with Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) after the market close on Thursday.

Personally, I will also be eyeing a large number of other portfolio holdings including:

• Waste Management (WM) after the bell on Monday;
• SoFi Technologies (SOFI) before the market opens on Tuesday;
• Logitech (LOGI) and Visa (V) after the close on Tuesday;
• Caterpillar (CAT) and Robinhood (HOOD) before the market opens Wednesday;
• Crown Castle (CCI) after the market close Wednesday;
• Cameco (CCJ), IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX), and Roblox (RBLX) before the market opens Thursday;
• Twilio (TWLO) after the market closes on Thursday;
• And, finally, Chevron (CVX) before the market opens on Friday.

Yes, it’s going to be a very, VERY busy week, and I’m betting we’ll have a lot to discuss when I meet you back here next Friday, friends! 

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No, it’s a Super Bitcoin Breakout!

Bitcoin blew away all the Bulls’ expectations this week, front-running President Trump announcing on Tuesday that he never had any intention of terminating Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell prior to the end of his term in May 2026. Bitcoin rocketed through both the weekly and monthly highs before finding resistance at $95,976.34 on Friday, an outstanding performance for the Bulls!

Additionally, Bitcoin made a significantly higher weekly low, only pulling back to $83,972.82 on Sunday before beginning its rocketing climb. On the downside, the past potential support levels have returned with possibly support around $91,300; psychological round-number support at $90,000; and key support just above $89,000.

The Bullish Case

Bulls retook the narrative with gusto this week. Some Bulls point to Bitcoin starting the rally far in advance of other risk-on assets could signify a breaking of correlation between the big orange crypto and tech stocks. In fact, some Bulls argue Bitcoin has become a “hybrid” risk-on/safe haven play, one where investors could park funds as an alternative to gold or cash.

Many Bulls believe we’ve seen the bottom for this cycle and that Bitcoin could make a play for new all-time highs, potentially breaking through its current all-time high at $109,358.01 to the upside as early as by the end of May!

The Bearish Case

Bears were sent to the corner to think about their mistakes this week as Bitcoin defied all Bearish predictions of a crash and impending doom below the current cycle low at $74,420.69. The consolidation of the past few weeks breaking Bullish dashed the Bears’ narrative and many are scrambling to come up with a new one.

Some Bears continue to argue that Bitcoin remains in a trading range with the high potential for new lower-lows as long as it doesn’t make a new all-time high. While I personally believe that thesis is a bit outlandish, anything is possible in this space. In prior Bear Market cycles, Bitcoin has seen huge gains only to reverse and make new lower-lows.

That being said, I’m targeting price targets above the current cycle low to start adding back to my position as it’s more than a little possible that the low is in for this pullback seeing as how Bitcoin pulled back -31.95% from its ATH, far lower than the shallowest pullback from previous cycles.

Bitcoin Trade Update

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.