Summing Up The Week

The stock market volatility continued through the week thanks to President Donald Trump announcing new tariffs while offering mixed messaging on existing tariffs as well as the reciprocal tariffs he plans to put on next week on April 2, the day he refers to as “America’s Liberation Day.”

However, the real selling kicked in on Friday when the PCE showed a real potential of a stagflation economy.

Let’s take a look at the news that moved markets this week…

Market News

Trump trade talk confuses markets

The markets rallied on Monday after President Donald Trump seemed to tone back the tariff rhetoric over the weekend. However, Monday evening, Trump promised auto and pharmaceutical tariffs in the “near future,” causing more confusion, reported CNBC.

“We’ll be announcing cars very shortly,” Trump said at a Cabinet meeting. “We already announced steel, as you know, and aluminum.”

“We’ll be announcing pharmaceuticals at some point because we have to have pharmaceuticals,” he said. “So we’ll be announcing some of these things in the very near future, not the long future, the very near future.”

At another White House event later Monday, Trump added the lumber and semiconductor industries to his list, saying tariffs on those two sectors would come “down the road.” Despite adding new sectors for potential tariffs, Trump the said that he “may give a lot of countries breaks” on the reciprocal tariffs set to begin April 2.

Consumer Confidence in the economy’s future hits 12-year low

On Tuesday, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey showed respondents’ expectations for the future of economy dropped to 65.2, the lowest reading in a dozen years, reported CNBC.

Likely a result of Trump’s tariffs and declared Trade War, optmisim for the future more or less disappeared from the survey. “Consumers’ optimism about future income — which had held up quite strongly in the past few months — largely vanished, suggesting worries about the economy and labor market have started to spread into consumers’ assessments of their personal situations,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist of Global Indicators at The Conference Board.

Surprisingly, the markets remained unfazed by this negative catalyst with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both finishing up on the day. Many market participants look at survey results as “soft data” and choose to ignore surveys in favor of CPI, PPI, and other hard data. However, my background as a statistician shows that the soft data is actually a leading indicator which could mean we’re in for a rough time of it in the next couple of months. We’ll have to wait and see.

Trump announces 25% tariffs on all cars not made in the U.S.

On Wednesday, President Donald Trump announced he would place 25% tariffs on “all cars that are not made in the United States” while suggesting the auto tariffs could arrive prior to April 2, reported CNBC. Key to remember is that this auto tariff isn’t on cars from foreign companies, this is a tariff on any car – domestic or international – that isn’t made on U.S. soil and would impact American car manufacturers like Ford, GM, and Stellantis, too.

Trump did give the American manufacturers a one-month exemption for the auto tariffs, but their stocks all sold off in extended-hours trading. “We’ll be announcing that fairly soon over the next few days, probably, and then April 2 comes, that’ll be reciprocal tariffs,” he said at a Cabinet meeting.

12-month inflation at 2.8%, higher than expected

On Friday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index showed inflation rose 0.4% in February to hit 2.8%, higher than the 2.7% expected, while consumer spending increased 0.4%, less than the 0.5% expected, reported CNBC. While the PCE was only slightly hotter than expected, the potential return of inflation combined with fears of recession means stagflation is a real possibility.

Stagflation is the term given to an economy that isn’t growing but is still experiencing inflation. Stagflation is rare, but when it does happen has been proven to be incredibly challenging for central banks to do anything about. Lowering interest rates to help the economy would likely increase the inflation, but doing nothing means the economy may continue to slow.

As a result, selling returned in earnest on Friday as investors became concerned about what might happen next.

Next Week’s Gameplan

Next week brings more soft and hard data for the markets to scrutinize. On Monday, we get the Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) with manufacturing ISM and PMI coming on Tuesday. Thursday sees the services ISM and PMI come out along with the U.S. trade deficit report for February.

Of course, while any of those datapoints might move stocks, the big mamma-jamma is Friday’s employment report for March. This is the first full-month job report since Elon Musk’s DOGE team has been slicing and dicing government jobs, so we could see a big move in stocks if those cuts have made an impact on the payroll figures. 

So, hang on to your hats, and I’ll meet you back here Friday afternoon to go over what happened in the markets, friends! 

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

The Bitcoin Bulls remain in control, but will momentum stay that way?

Bitcoin had another bullish week making a higher weekly-high as well as a higher-weekly low indicating the Bulls are hanging on to the momentum. Bitcoin set its low on Friday after my update went to “print,” finding support above the prior low of $81,134.83 and setting the new weekly low at $83,100.00. It then broke through last week’s high at $87,492.87 on Monday and encountered resistance at $88,804.64.

The Bullish Case

Bulls remain in control of the narrative thanks to Bitcoin’s rally over the past week. Some believe we’ll see Bitcoin make it back above six figures in April with others giving typically outlandish price targets of $150K and higher before the end of April. Since I’m always long, that would be fantastic, but given the macroeconomic and geopolitical climate, I’m just hoping Bitcoin doesn’t break down.

The Bearish Case

Bears believe Trump’s tariffs and the rest of the geopolitical uncertainty will bring another leg down for stocks and that will Bitcoin will follow suit. The S&P 500 has been struggling to conquer its 200-day Moving Averages which is not a bullish sign, and with April 2nd bringing reciprocal tariffs as well as the new auto tariffs Trump announced Wednesday, a bigger drawdown in risk assets is increasingly likely.

How low could Bitcoin go during a selloff? Well, that’s why I post the Key Selloff Targets each week (below)!

Bitcoin Trade Update

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In March, Bitcoin dropped -30% to a low of $76,550.00.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.