Summing Up The Week

Stocks traded mainly in a range this week with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both clearly below their key moving averages. The Bulls made several attempts to break the S&P 500 over its 200-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), most notably after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced the Fed would be reducing quantitative tightening by 75% on Wednesday, but each attempt has been soundly rejected by the Bears.

Naturally, any hope the Bulls have of regaining in momentum has been dashed by a weak consumer and the never-ending talk of tariffs and exacerbation of the Trade War by President Donald Trump.

Let’s take a look at the news that moved the markets this week…

Market News

“See you in four years,” – Canada

On Sunday, Canadians announced additional tariffs and began nationwide policies to only purchase Canadian goods in retaliation for Trump’s actions, reported CNBC. In addition to the tariffs, Trump’s comments suggesting he plans to make Canada the 51st state has caused a rift with what was once the United States’ biggest trading partner.

“It really feels for most Canadians like we’ve been backstabbed, that the person that we trusted the most is now sort of turning on us and attacking us for no apparent reason,” said Joel Bilt, an economics professor focused on international trade at the University of Waterloo in Ontario. “That has really unified people.”

In addition to tariffs, some provinces have barred the sale of American products such as American liquor. “That’s worse than a tariff,” said Lawson Whiting, Chief Executive of Brown-Forman, makers of Jack Daniel’s whisky, on the Kentucky-based company’s earnings call this month. “It’s literally taking your sales away.”

Retail Sales increase less than expected in February

On Monday, retail sales for February showed an increase of 0.2% for the month, less than the estimates for a 0.6% increase, providing further evidence of a weakening consumer, reported CNBC. Pundits point to consumer concerns over rising inflation, an impending economic slowdown, and the unknown effects of the tariffs from the looming trade war as reasons for decreased spending.

With much of the U.S. economy relying on the strength of the consumer and its willingness to spend, a weakening consumer does not track well with overall stock market performance.

The Fed keeps rates steady, two cuts this year

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced their decision to keep rates steady and projected two cuts coming later in 2025, exactly as was expected, reported CNBC. In addition, the Fed announced it would be scaling back the quantitative tightening (where the Fed reduces the amount of U.S. Treasurys held on its balance sheet).

In its prepared statement, the Fed acknowledged the current climate. “Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased,” the document stated. “The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.”

Next Week’s Gameplan

With the Fed meeting out of the way, we’re back to “normal” economic datapoints next week with the flash services and manufacturing PMI on Monday, consumer confidence on Tuesday, and durable-goods orders on Wednesday. 

As always, the big news falls on Friday with the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, dropping then. I don’t anticipate we will see much variation between the PCE, but, if we see a more extreme change in either direction (hotter inflation or cooler inflation), we could see a corresponding move in the markets.

I’ll see you back here next Friday, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Are the Bitcoin Bulls finally getting back on their horse?

Bitcoin began constructive price action over the past week, creating a higher weekly-low at $81,134.83 on Tuesday before breaking out to create a new higher weekly-high at $87,492.87. The creation of higher lows and higher highs, particularly on the longer timeframes, is positive for the Bulls.

The Bullish Case

Bulls believe that Bitcoin crossing above the 200-Day Moving Average, holding support, and closing above it indicates a change in trend. Some Bulls are going all-in at this point, predicting an acceleration of the bullish price action with many thinking Bitcoin will regain the $90,000 within the next few days.

The Bearish Case

Bears continue to argue the geopolitical and macroeconomic environments do not support risk-on assets like Bitcoin. Despite the recent Bullish recovery, the Bears believe the wider stock market could be in a lower leg down, and, if that happens, Bitcoin will take a lower leg down, too.

Bitcoin Trade Update

Premium subscribers to Get Irked get access to all the moves I’ve made in my Bitcoin trade over the past week as well as my next thirty (30) … yes, 30 … buys in Bitcoin including price levels, quantities, and a full layout of my ongoing long-term trade in the world’s biggest crypto.

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In March, Bitcoin dropped -30% to a low of $76,550.00.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.