Summing Up The Week

President Donald Trump’s tariff tirade continued to cause the market to sell off dramatically early in the week with the S&P 500 down nearly 3% and the Nasdaq down 4% on Monday alone. 

Even cooling inflation data did little to nothing to stem the tide of selling. The markets hate uncertainty, and nothing brings more uncertainty than Trump’s flip-flopping approach to trade war negotiations.

Let’s take a look at the news that did (or did not) move markets this week…

Market News

Trump Tariff War To Continue…

On Wednesday, President Donald Trump raised the tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50% in retaliation for the province of Ontario’s energy duties, reported CNBC. Later in the day, Ontario’s governor suspended the surcharge as U.S. Commerce Secretary agreed to trade talks, reported CNBC. Shortly after the markets closed, Trump announced he would not raise the tariff on steel and  aluminum after all.

After even more pain in the markets, Trump reiterated his tariff plans on Thursday, saying “I’m not going to bend at all,” reported CNBC.

The back-and-forth gave many market participants whiplash and the resulting positive news didn’t necessarily have the effect on the stock market that Trump and his administration may have preferred. Trump’s aggressive stance and wishy-washy attitude left the market hesitant with many participants choosing to take profits and/or cut losses with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq resuming their selloffs subsequently.

Ukraine agrees to ceasefire if Russia accepts

On Wednesday, Ukraine agreed to an immediate 30-day ceasefire led by the United States if Russia accepted, reported CNBC. As part of the negotiations, the U.S. resumed sharing intelligence with the Ukrainians, and President Volodymr Zelenskyy agreed to develop a plan for developing Ukraine’s critical mineral resources.

Ironically, many experts in the field point out that Ukraine has very little to anything in the way of mineral resources, only base metals, and, even if those mines were developed, a mineral deal would never remotely pay back the billions in military aid provided by the U.S.

Some political pundits believe the “raw minerals deal” presented by President Donald Trump was simply a fig leaf to make it appear as if Trump had negotiated some sort of repayment of wartime support.

Inflation cooler than expected in February

On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed the inflation rate increased 0.2% in February for a year-over-year rate of 2.8%, lower than economist expectations, reported CNBC.

Despite the positive news, pundits pointed out the complexities in trying to accurately measure inflation using any gauge. “A lot of this inflation data does not incorporate what is to come and what already has happened for tariffs,” said Kevin Gordon, Senior Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab. “The vagaries and uncertainties associated with policy are still a much stronger force in the market than anything CPI-related or in terms of one data point.”

The cooler-than-expected CPI report did stem the tide of selling during Wednesday morning trading as both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes bounced after the news released before the markets opened for trading.

PPI flat in February, cooler than expected

On Thursday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-over-month when economists were expecting an increase of 0.3%, reported CNBC. Like the CPI released on Wednesday, cooler-than-expected inflation should have been taken as good news for the markets, however selling resumed as market participants continue to remain concerned over Trump’s tariffs.

Next Week’s Gameplan

There always seems to be at least some data point that could move markets each week, however next week promises to be a big one with the Federal Reserve meeting and subsequent decision whether or not to cut the benchmark interest rate coming up on Wednesday.

Before that, we get U.S. retail sales, the Empire State manufacturing survey, and the home builder confidence index on Monday, with retail sales likely being the most important of the three. 

Of course, outside of economic datapoints and the Fed, we do have the ongoing trade war and whatever crazy volatility tape bomb Trump might throw at the markets at any time, so continue to keep your eyes open and your buying/selling plans prepared.

I’ll see you back here next Friday, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Can Bitcoin pull itself up from the edge?

President Donald Trump held the first-ever Crypto Summit last Friday, and, well, the results were not quite what the crypto community was hoping for. While Trump did establish the first Bitcoin and crypto reserve, it was done so on the basis that the U.S. government would no longer sell any crypto holdings they procured from crime raids.

Trump went on to say that the U.S. would not be using taxpayer funds to purchase Bitcoin or other crypto for the strategic crypto reserve at this time, dashing the hopes of Bulls that the government would start billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin each year.

With the summit being a bit of a let-down, it’s not a surprise that Bitcoin sold off once more over the weekend, dropping from Friday’s high at $91,280 deep into the low $80K region by Sunday afternoon.

When stock market participants more or less panicked on Monday, the selling took Bitcoin down, too. Bitcoin crashed through last week’s support at $78,167.81 like it wasn’t even there, not stopping until $76,555.00 early Tuesday morning.

The Bullish Case

Bulls believe the support Bitcoin’s finding at these levels indicates the buying power will continue to keep Bitcoin above $75,000. Bulls believe $76,555.00 will hold with some predicting the crypto will retake $100K before the end of March.

The Bearish Case

The Bears continue to maintain the narrative right now, and I don’t see any reason this will change. With Trump doubling-down on tariffs and ignoring any negative moves in the stock market, there’s no reason Bitcoin won’t continue to maintain its correlation with risk-on assets like tech and growth stocks. Will Bitcoin hit the $62,000 price target that Fundstrat’s crypto analyst says it will get to before the end of March? It certainly seems possible (and I will be stacking like mad if that happens!).

Here are the key selloff levels I have been posting this past few weeks. These are all derived from past pullbacks from all-time highs as well as various Crypto Winters:

• -26.31% = $80,342.16

• -30.27% = $76,024.68

• -31.24% = $74,967.12

• -39.53% = $65,928.76

• -40.24% = $65,154.67

Bitcoin Trade Update

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In March, Bitcoin dropped -30% to a low of $76,550.00.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.