Summing Up The Week

I still find it crazy the number of market participants who claim the stock market was not volatile during President Donald Trump’s first term in office. The day-to-day volatility was particularly insane when Trump kicked off the trade war against China in Q3 of 2018 by initiating tariffs against the country. 

You don’t even need to try to remember the volatility from 2018 because the volatility’s back and bigger than ever thanks to the exact same reason – Trump has started another trade war! Plus, this time, Trump seems to want to take on the entire world by also including Canada and Mexico with rumors swirling that Europe is next.

Regardless, as I promised before Trump was inaugurated, the President’s return was sure to bring with it some crazy times in the stock market (and crypto, too, for that matter), and Trump has not disappointed!

Let’s take a look at the news that moved markets this week…

Market News

Trump announces strategic crypto reserve

After Bitcoin sold off below $80,000 last week, President Donald Trump set out to turn around the bearish price action by announcing a U.S. strategic crypto reserve which will include Bitcoin and several other cryptocurrencies on Sunday, reported CNBC.

In addition to Bitcoin, this strategic reserve will also include Ether, XRP, Solana, and Cardano. “A U.S. Crypto Reserve will elevate this critical industry after years of corrupt attacks by the Biden Administration, which is why my Executive Order on Digital Assets directed the Presidential Working Group to move forward on a Crypto Strategic Reserve that includes XRP, SOL, and ADA,” said Trump in a post on Truth Social. “I will make sure the U.S. is the Crypto Capital of the World.”

Trump went on to reiterate the priority of the reserve to focus on Bitcoin and Ether, the two largest cryptocurrencies by market cap, in a later post, “And, obviously, BTC and ETH, as other valuable Cryptocurrencies, will be at the heart of the Reserve. I also love Bitcoin and Ethereum!”

The posts caused Bitcoin to rally more than 10% on Sunday while Cardano (ADA) rocketed an incredible +84.58% from its daily low to its high on Sunday.

Trump’s tariffs trash stocks & Bitcoin

On Monday, Trump’s reiteration that tariffs against Canada, China, and Mexico would start 12:00 a.m. ET Tuesday morning destroyed the markets and Bitcoin, sending the S&P 500 down more than -1.75%, the Nasdaq down nearly -3.00%, and Bitcoin crashing nearly -10%, almost wiping out all the gains resulting from Trump’s Sunday crypto reserve announcement, reported CNBC.

Trump’s “Art of the Deal” negotiation style made many market participants believe the President would either pull back on implementing tariffs or reduce them prior to the start time, however Trump made it clear he was going ahead as planned. “They’re all set. They go into effect tomorrow,” he said in a press conference at the White House.

China retaliates with 15% tariffs on U.S. goods

On Tuesday morning, China announced it would impose tariffs of up to 15% on U.S. goods starting March 10 and restrict exports to 15 U.S. companies, reported CNBC. The additional Chinese tariffs largely cover U.S. agricultural goods, including corn and soybeans, which will be subject to new duties of 15% and 10%, respectively, according to the finance ministry’s website.

Many experts point out that trade wars tend to be inflationary as each side seeks to “outdo” the other by raising tariffs in retaliation. “Trade wars carry the risk of retaliation and escalation — and certainly in the case of China, and in the case potentially of Canada and Mexico, which also will be facing tariffs today … we would expect some response to come,” Frederique Carrier, head of investment strategy at RBC Wealth Management, told CNBC’s “Capital Connection” on Tuesday.

Target joins Wal-Mart in warning of weak consumer

On Tuesday morning, retailer Target (TGT) warned that February sales were soft, adding to worries that the U.S. consumer may be weakening, reported CNBC. Target warned that it expects a “meaningful” drop in first-quarter profit compared to the year-ago period as it contends with “ongoing consumer uncertainty,” soft sales in February and concerns around tariffs. 

In a statement, Target’s Chief Finance Officer Jim Lee said February sales were “soft” and “declining consumer confidence” hurt discretionary sales. He also blamed “uncharacteristically cold weather,” saying it affected apparel sales. 

“We expect to see a moderation in this trend as apparel sales respond to warmer weather around the country, and consumers turn to Target for upcoming seasonal moments such as the Easter holiday,” said Lee. “We will continue to monitor these trends and will remain appropriately cautious with our expectations for the year ahead.”

Negotiations to avert government shutdown weaken

With a government shutdown looming on March 14, the talks between the two parties grow with no clear way to reach an agreement to keep the government open, reported CNBC. The government is set to run out of money at the end of next Friday, March 14. Republicans control the House and the Senate, but they need Democratic support to pass a funding bill as it is subject to the Senate’s 60-vote threshold.

Democrats have pushed to include constraints on Trump and billionaire adviser Elon Musk’s attempts to close down or slash agencies without congressional approval. But Republicans say that’s a nonstarter as they support the Department of Government Efficiency-led budget cuts, which they say are about rooting out waste.

“I’m not optimistic. I don’t think we’re going to have a budget,” said Sen. John Kennedy, R-La. “My Democratic colleagues have been insistent that we include language limiting the involvement of the executive branch on spending decisions.”

With all of the volatility in markets resulting from Trump’s tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico, the potential of a (plus, potentially, a full) government shutdown are sure to provide even more volatile price action in the days to come.

U.S. jobs grow 151K in February, less than expected

To cap off a disappointing week, Friday’s payroll number showed the U.S. added 151,000 in nonfarm payrolls in February, less than the 170,000 forecasted by economists, reported CNBC. To make matters worse, the extent of the Federal job cuts resulting from Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) won’t be felt until the coming months.

“We are not putting much stock in the jobs report at the moment,” said Byron Anderson, Head of Fixed Income at Laffer Tengler Investments. “Today’s data was mixed at best, but we still have no clarity on the economy moving forward with the Trump turmoil. The longer we have chaos and turmoil from Trump, the higher the probability that we will eventually have data trend negative.

Despite yet another negative news catalyst, the S&P 500 initially traded up on Friday, likely due to the oversold conditions from Thursday’s rout.

Next Week’s Gameplan

New inflation reports roll out next week with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) releasing on Wednesday followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. Although neither are the preferred measures of inflation for the Federal Reserve, both the CPI and PPI have proven to be important gauges to watch as the market will move on good or bad prints in each.

While the major earnings reports for the markets are out of the way, I will be buying Investments in Play holding, UiPath (PATH). This controversial artificial intelligence (AI) turnaround play has been a wild mover with its recent rally leading me to remove all remaining capital in addition to some profits at $13.70 on February 3. Hopefully, the company will be able to demonstrate the turnaround plan is working, otherwise there could be lower-lows in store for the stock.

And, as always, I’ll meet you back here to take a look over what moved the markets on Friday, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Join Me on the Bitcoin Rollercoaster!

After Bitcoin sold off below $80,000 the week prior, President Donald Trump set out to turn around the bearish price action by announcing a U.S. strategic crypto reserve which will include Bitcoin and several other cryptocurrencies on Sunday. The biggest surprise was that the reserve wouldn’t just include Bitcoin and Ether, the two largest cryptos by market cap, but that the reserve would also include Ripple’s XRP, Solana and Cardano.

As a result, not only did the crypto market turn around, Cardano ended up rallying +85% in a single day from its daily low to its high on Sunday. However, this incredible rally would be short-lived as, on Monday, the crypto community came out against Trump’s decision to include other cryptocurrencies in what was supposed to be a Bitcoin-only reserve. Tyler Winkervoss, one of the two twins who founded the crypto exchange Gemini, wrote, “I do not think they [altcoins to Bitcoin] are suitable for Strategic Reserve.”

Combined with the news that Trump’s tariffs would go through, Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto sector rolled over on Monday, losing most of the gains they had seen during Sunday’s rally.

On Friday, March 7 at 6:30 p.m. ET, Trump intends to hold the first-ever crypto summit at the White House which will almost certainly move the price of Bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrency sector one way or the other, however that will be a conversation for next week’s Crypto Corner.

The Bullish Case

Bulls believe Bitcoin has bottomed with many stating that Friday night’s crypto summit will send the Big Orange Crypto to brand-new all-time highs of $125,000 and higher, all within the next week. These Bulls argue that the Bears inability to push Bitcoin below $78,000 indicates the buying is so strong that there’s nowhere to go but up for Bitcoin.

The Bearish Case

Bears believe Bitcoin has much lower to fall. In fact, even Tom Lee of Fundstrat who many haters refer to as a “permabull” has pointed out that Fundstrat’s crypto analyst believes Bitcoin will make its way back to $62,000 by the end of March. Given the volatility in the stock market, any negative news catalyst will certainly smack down Bitcoin, too, so it’s quite possible we could see prices in the $60K-$70K region again (and, if we do, I’ll be buying hand over fist).

I posted the below key selloff levels from the past in last week’s Crypto Corner, but I feel they could be useful to you so I’m going to keep including them for awhile… (at least until we know whether or not Bitcoin has really bottomed):

• -26.31% = $80,342.16 ← Note: Bitcoin having broken below this level COULD mean it has already bottomed; this is no longer the shallowest pullback from an all-time high.

• -30.27% = $76,024.68

• -31.24% = $74,967.12

• -39.53% = $65,928.76

• -40.24% = $65,154.67

Bitcoin Trade Update

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In February, Bitcoin dropped -29% to a low of $49,050.01.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.