Summing Up The Week
Santa failed to show up for the rally this year. Typically, the last 3-5 trading days of one year and the first 2 trading days of the new year see stocks float higher, thus where the rally got its nickname, but, man, what a depressing couple of days.
When the New Year kicked off on Thursday, it looked like the Bulls were going to bring back the rally with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both up more than 1% before both rolled over, gave up their gains, and then turned red.
Then, on Friday, everything flipped green with the S&P 500 finishing the day up nearly +1.25% and the Nasdaq closing the day up nea3rly 1.75%!
So, what’s going on?
There weren’t any significant datapoints that came out over the past which leads to me think that my theory of the huge number of investors and traders with giant gains waiting to take profits in the new tax year may actually hold some water.
To make matters worse, normally bullish analysts have released statistics that show a market that sells off into the new year typically doesn’t foretell good things for January’s performance and another old stock market adage says, “How goes January goes the rest of the year.”
Maybe 2025 will bring some spice we haven’t seen in a couple of years? Let’s take a look at the news that moved markets this week…
Market News
Chicago PMI comes in worse than expected
On Monday, the Chicago Business Barometer slipped 3.3 points to 36.9 in December, the third consecutive monthly decline that now leaves the index at its lowest since May 2024 and below the 2024 average, reported MarketWatch. The barometer summarizes current business activity and many pundits consider it to be a reliable leading indicator of the U.S. economy.
Just like many of the other indexes, a figure of 50 or higher is considered a positive indicator for economic growth while anything under 50 is considered negative. Given that the media forecast from economists was 42.2, a 36.9 is a substantial disappointment.
Stocks were already sluggish in the week so it’s hard to know if this release had a further negative effect, but, considering how stocks finished Tuesday, the last trading day of 2024, down substantially, this datapoint certainly did not assuage concerns.
Next Week’s Gameplan
Next week will be another shortened trading week due to the stock market being closed on Thursday, January 9 out of respect for the passing of President Jimmy Carter this past weekend. It is customary for the stock market to close for a day to respect the death of any president.
On Tuesday, we learn more about ISM services, the U.S. trade deficit, and the job openings report followed by ADP employment on Wednesday and the payroll report for December being released on Friday.
Combine the data with the start of the new year as well as the downward trend we’ve seen in stocks and Bitcoin, and next week may be very volatile to the downside. Get those buying plans ready, friends!
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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price (in USD)
%
Weekly Change
Bitcoin Price Action
Is Bitcoin barely hanging on or about to break out?
Bitcoin kept its correlation to the stock market headed into the end of the year, slowly pushing lower and breaking through the weekly low at $92,360.91 before finding support at $91,271.19 on Monday, above the key support level at $90,682.58.
However, sentiment seemed to change for the bullish as the calendar flipped. Bitcoin rallied off the low despite the weakness we continued to see in stocks. Unfortunately, the big orange crypto wasn’t able to make a higher weekly-high, finding resistance at $97,776.99 on Thursday, but, still, the price action was a glimmer of hope in an otherwise bear-filled marketplace.
Now, the Bulls claim the current price action is a consolidation with the potential to retest support before breaking out. The Bears claim that Bitcoin has established potential Head & Shoulders pattern indicating a significant breakdown.
Don’t you just love technical analysis? 😉
The Bullish Case
Bulls point out that while Bitcoin did break the weekly-low, holding the key support both above 10-Day Moving Averages as well as that key $90K mark can be taken as bullish signs. With President-Elect Donald Trump leading easily the most pro-crypto administration we have ever seen, there are a lot of bullish tailwinds for Bitcoin.
The Bearish Case
The Bears continue to try to argue that Bitcoin’s looking weak, despite the world’s biggest crypto having made new all-time highs just a few weeks ago. The Bears argue that Bitcoin’s failure to make a significant bounce off its low is a sign that bullish momentum and buying is waning just in time for Bitcoin to crash to a newer low, potentially diving below $90K to the next level of key support around $85K (and lower still depending on your preferred flavor of Bear).
Bitcoin Trade Update
Premium subscribers to Get Irked get access to all the moves I’ve made in my Bitcoin trade over the past week as well as my next thirty (30) … yes, 30 … buys in Bitcoin including price levels, quantities, and a full layout of my ongoing long-term trade in the world’s biggest crypto.
Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…
In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).
Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.
I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).
No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.
While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.
Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:
- In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
- Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
- In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
- In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
- In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
- In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
- Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
- Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
- In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
- Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
- In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
- In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
- In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
- In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
- In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
- In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
- In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
- In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
- In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
- Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
- In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
- In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
- In December, Bitcoin rallied +121% to a new all-time high of $108,388.88.
- In January 2025, Bitcoin dipped -16% to a low of $91,384.70.
Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…
What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?
The only reason I speculate in the cryptocurrency space is I truly believe Bitcoin isn’t headed to zero. I am prepared for that possibility, however, by knowing I could potentially lose all of the capital I’ve allocated to this speculative investment. Professional advisers recommend speculating with no more than 5% of an investor’s overall assets. Personally, I’ve allocated less than that to speculating in crypto. I feel that anyone who doesn’t fully believe in the long-term viability of cryptocurrency would be better served not speculating in the space. On a good day, this asset class isn’t suitable for those with weak stomachs. On volatile days, the sector can induce nausea in the most iron-willed speculator. If a speculator isn’t confident in the space, the moves will cause mistakes to be made.DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.
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