Summing Up The Week

The stock market melt-up shows no signs of slowing, with the S&P 500 making new all-time highs once again over the holiday-shortened week.

The week kicked off with the market loving President-Elect Donald Trump’s new pick for Treasury Secretary but briefly pulled back right before Thanksgiving due to the most recent PCE report.

However, the Black Friday buying fervor returned, ensuring the S&P 500 finished the week off strong.

Let’s look at the news that moved the markets this week…

Market News

Markets rally on Trump’s pick for Treasury Secretary

After President-Elect Donald Trump announced Scott Bessent, founder of investment firm Key Square Group, as his pick for Treasury Secretary Friday evening, the market rallied in approval on Monday, reported CNBC. Market participants believe Bessent’s professional background will help balance the potentially wild effects of some of Trump’s more extreme economic plans.

“Trump’s pick for Treasury Secretary has swelled investor sentiment further with stocks on Wall Street looking set for another flurry of gains,” Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, said in a research note. “Hedge fund manager Scott Bessent’s long career of navigating the twists and turns of markets has boosted confidence about incoming pro-business policies and lifted hopes that any tariffs would be highly targeted and potentially less inflationary in nature.”

Stocks opened Monday higher and spent much of the day in semi-volatile trading – even giving back all of their gains at one point – before closing the day higher.

Consumer Confidence hits 16-month high

On Tuesday, consumer confidence rose to 111.7 in November, its highest reading since mid-2023, as Americans appear to be growing more optimistic about 2025 thanks to the rally in the stock market, slowing inflation, and a robust labor market, reported MarketWatch.

“The economy has grown at an above-average speed for the past two years despite depressed levels of consumer confidence,” reported MarketWatch. “High inflation has been the chief cause of the discontent, but prices are no longer rising rapidly.”

Additionally, the consumer confidence survey showed that the number of Americans fearing a looming recession is decreasing as more respondents believe a recession is no longer in the cards for the next few years.

PCE rises to 2.3%, meeting expectations

On Wednesday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose 0.2% in November culminating in a 2.3% annually, both in-line with economist expectations, reported CNBC. The PCE uses a variety of prices on goods and services to calculate inflation and is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge.

While the PCE was in-line with expectations, the market appeared to have different ideas as stocks sold off following its release on Wednesday. Artificial intelligence (AI) stocks and other high-growth equities took the biggest hits with the Nasdaq selling off more than 1% at its lows.

Next Week’s Gameplan

We return to our regularly scheduled five-day trading week next week, kicking off with the manufacturing PMI for November on Monday. On Wednesday, we’ll get the services PMI as well as the Fed Beige Book, a report produced by the Federal Reserve that offers anecdotes about the economy from the Fed’s different regions. Friday will be the big day once again as we’ll receive the U.S. employment report for November.

As if all that wasn’t enough, we’re still not done with earnings season yet! Salesforce (CRM) reports on Tuesday and UiPath (PATH) reports on Thursday, both after the market closes.

So, there will once again be a lot to cover as I’ll meet you back here next Friday, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Bitcoin Bounced! Is $100K incoming?

Bitcoin saw its first pullback of this Bull Market Cycle, but before anyone gets too excited, the entire move was a minor -10.79% drawdown from Bitcoin’s all-time high to the low it made on Tuesday setting a weekly low at $90,682.58.

Based on past cycles, this could very well mean that Bitcoin has not yet set the intermediate high for the cycle; the high which sees a more substantial pullback which could range in size from -26.31% to -40.24%.

As I pointed out a few weeks ago, even in Bull Market Cycles, Bitcoin saw significant pullbacks both in the 2017 cycle and the 2020-21 cycle. With the new all-time high set for the moment at $99,852.11, that gives us the following pullback support/buying targets (prices are from Gemini, adjust accordingly):

• -26.31% = $73,581.02

• -30.27% = $69,626.88

• -31.24% = $66,658.31

• -39.53% = $60,380.57

• -40.24% = $59,671.62

REMEMBER: Just because I’m keeping pullbacks like these in mind, I do NOT consider them bearish. In 2017 and 2020-21, Bitcoin made new, much more substantial all-time highs AFTER those pullbacks.

The Bullish Case

Bulls remain incredibly bullish and the mockery is out in full-force. Bears are being ridiculed as Bulls make claims that $100,000 will be hit within the next week and highs around $200,000 will be made before year-end. Don’t get me wrong – I applaud the bullish enthusiasm, but the Bears are starting to make valid points.

The Bearish Case

Bears warn that there are a number of different sequences that foretell potential selloffs in both Bitcoin and stocks, too. The Bears also point to the cockiness of the Bulls as a potentially frothy top, if only for the intermediate term. I must admit, when I see comments like this one below on my most recent YouTube video about Bitcoin’s potential pullback (which fully indicate the commenter did NOT even watch the video), I have to concede that the Bears might have a point about sentiment also reaching all-time highs right now:

Bitcoin Trade Update

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $99,543.00.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.