Summing Up The Week

The shortened trading week (thanks to the Good Friday holiday) started off relatively benign without a whole lot of volatility, a welcome change in comparison to the past two weeks.

However, when consumer spending revealed a front-running of buying ahead of perceived inflation and the government effectively banned Nvidia (NVDA) from selling lower-powered H20 chips to China hit the news on Wednesday, volatility slowly returned. Then, when Federal Reserve Jerome Powell spoke at the Economic Club of Chicago, the manure really hit the fan and markets collapsed.

Let’s take a look at the news that moved markets this week…

Market News

Electronics exempt from new tariffs

On Saturday, President Donald Trump announced that smartphones, computers, and semiconductors would be exempt from his reciprocal tariffs that were paused until July, reported CNBC. Additionally, solar cells, flat panel TVs, flash drive and memory cards will also be exempt from the additional tariffs.

“This is the dream scenario for tech investors,” said Dan Ives, Global Head of Technology Research at Wedbush Securities. “Smartphones, chips being excluded is a game-changer scenario when it comes to China tariffs.”

… maybe not on the exemptions?

On Sunday, Trump said Saturday’s exemptions would be partially or completely reversed in coming weeks, reported CNBC.

“There was no Tariff “exception” announced on Friday. These products are subject to the existing 20% Fentanyl Tariffs, and they are just moving to a different Tariff ‘bucket,’” Trump said in a post on social media. “The Fake News knows this, but refuses to report it. We are taking a look at Semiconductors and the WHOLE ELECTRONICS SUPPLY CHAIN in the upcoming National Security Tariff Investigations.”

Dalio warns of imminent severe shock to monetary system

Trump’s flip-flopping caused Billionaire Ray Dalio to caution that a recession might not be as bad as the monetary crisis Trump’s tariffs could cause in an interview on Meet the Press on Sunday.

If Congress doesn’t reduce the federal deficit to 3% of the gross domestic product, “we’re going to have a supply-demand problem for debt at the same time as we have these other problems, and the results of that will be worse than a normal recession,” Dalio said.

The very value of money is at stake, Dalio said. A breakdown in the bond market, combined with events like internal and international conflict, could be an even more severe shock to the monetary system than President Richard Nixon’s cancellation of the gold standard in 1971 and the global financial crisis in 2008.

Government bans Nvidia from selling chips to China

After the market closed on Tuesday, Nvidia (NVDA) revealed in a filing that the company would have to take a $5.5 billion hit this quarter thanks to the government requiring a license to sell H20 graphics chips to China, reported CNBC.

With Nvidia being a significant bellweather for the entire market, particularly the tech sector, this news caused the markets to return to a tailspin on Wednesday. Nvidia dragged down both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes during the day’s trading.

Retail Sales increased 1.4% in March, more than expected

Despite all the talk of tariffs and sentiment surveys showing consumers fear the future of the economy, the retail sales report from the Commerce Department showed an increase of 1.4% in March, better than the Dow Jones estimate for 1.2%, reported CNBC.

At first, an increase in consumer spending might seem incongruous with the sentiment, however, since the major fear is inflation, the increase in spending could be a result of consumers front-running the higher prices they are expecting to come. “Net, net, these are simply blow out numbers on March retail sales where the rush is on like this is one gigantic clearance sale,” said Chris Rupkey, Chief Economist at FWDBONDS. “Consumers are expecting sharply higher prices the next year and are clearing the store shelves and picking up bargains while they can.”

The Fed abandons mandates for the rest of 2025

On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Jerome Powell warned that tariffs could pose challenges between controlling inflation and boosting growth, going as far as to say the Fed would abandon their dual-mandate for the rest of 2025 during a question-and-answer session to the Economic Club of Chicago, reported CNBC. Powell’s dour comments sent stocks and Bitcoin lower while gold raged more than 3% during Wednesday’s trading.

“We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension,” Powell said in prepared remarks. “If that were to occur, we would consider how far the economy is from each goal, and the potentially different time horizons over which those respective gaps would be anticipated to close.”

When asked how the tariffs would affect the Federal Reserve’s dual mandage of maintaining stable prices and full employment, Powell answered that tariffs will ““likely to move us further away from our goals … probably for the balance of this year.”

Next Week’s Gameplan

After this week’s shortened week, we are headed into a week thick with economic datapoints news and earnings reports. On Wednesday, we get the flash services and manufacturing PMI followed by durable goods orders on Thursday and Consumer Sentiment on Friday.

In earnings land, I am specifically eyeing Caterpillar (CAT) on Monday before the market opens; Tesla (TSLA) on Tuesday after the bell; Boeing  (BA) on Wednesday before the market opens; Pepsico (PEP) and Union Pacific (UNP) on Thursday before the market opens; and Intel (INTC) on Thursday after the market closes.

Additionally, other portfolio holdings are reporting earnings next week including Digital Realty Trust (DLR), Dow Chemical (DOW), IBM (IBM), Iridium Communications (IRDM), Newmont Mining (NEM) and Zoetis (ZTS).

There’s no doubt it will be another busy week and I’ll meet you back here next Friday to talk about, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

What will be Bitcoin’s Next Move: $120K or $40K? Place Your Bets!

Bitcoin saw a decent pop from Friday through the weekend taking it through last week’s high at $83,583.35 as well as through the resistance level at $84,720.67, not stopping until it found a new weekly high at $86,092.99 on Sunday. During the week, Bitcoin continued to demonstrate bullish action, breaking through to a new higher-high at $86,491.40 on Tuesday.

After rallying, Bitcoin traded in a relatively tight trading range (at least comparatively to the past few weeks), neither making a higher weekly high nor breaking through the support low.

The Bullish Case

Bulls believe Bitcoin’s relative strength could indicate a transformation from it being correlated to risk-on assets to actually becoming an alternative to physical gold. Accordingly, many Bulls believe Bitcoin could see a significant breakout to the upside if buyers are able to make the big orange crypto crack through the current resistance levels holding it down.

The Bearish Case

Bears deny the thesis that Bitcoin has become risk-off, instead arguing that the price action has simply lagged the rest of the market. As more and more selling comes to the equity market (and even the bond market), Bears believe that it’s simply a matter of time before Bitcoin breaks back down. Some Bears believe the current cycle low at $74,420.69 won’t hold.

While I still have a substantial allocation on, I have noticed that the current price action feels a lot like the crash in 2018 where the low at $6,000 held for nearly the entire time year before giving out in December. However, when the support finally broke, Bitcoin dropped nearly another -50% before bottoming around $3,150.

In other words, if Bitcoin breaks down, we could be looking at potential lows anywhere from $35,000-$40,000. Additionally, it’s always worth remembering that Bitcoin sold off a total of -84.36% from its then all-time-high in 2017 to its low in 2018 which gives us a downside target of $17,102.97!

Bitcoin Trade Update

Premium subscribers to Get Irked get access to all the moves I’ve made in my Bitcoin trade over the past week as well as my next thirty (30) … yes, 30 … buys in Bitcoin including price levels, quantities, and a full layout of my ongoing long-term trade in the world’s biggest crypto.

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.