Summing Up The Week

President Donald Trump keeps bringing the hits when it comes to market-moving news. On Monday, indexes opened the day down significantly before recovering their losses more or less by the end of the day. Tuesday saw the reverse – stocks rallied substantially only to roll over and give back those gains plus some by the end of the day.

Wednesday was huge thanks to Trump announcing a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs. While, the indexes exploded higher, it’s worth noting that, historically, the biggest one-day rallies happen during ongoing Bear Markets so we’re nowhere out of the woods, yet.

Let’s take a look at the news that moved markets this week…

Market News

Consumer Credit balances at record highs +50% from 2021

On Monday, the Federal Reserve’s Consumer Credit Report showed February’s consumer credit at -$0.81 billion versus $15 billion expected, reported Marketplace. At first glance, a decreasing reading might seem like good news since it indicates consumer are cutting back on spending, however, in reality, the figure more likely indicates that the consumer is maxed out. 

Additionally, delinquency rates have been rising since 2022 – up more than 50% from 2021 – and more than 10% of credit card bills are more than 90 days late. “We’re seeing more people using cards just to get by for groceries and gas,” said Ted Rossman, Bankrate’s Senior Industry Analyst.

Given the two-month lag in the report, this result is even more worrisome as it shows the consumer was cutting back far before Trump’s tariffs had a chance to raise prices on goods and services. If the consumer has stopped spending, this could spell recession for the U.S. economy.

Trump announces tariffs to start at midnight on Wednesday

On Tuesday, President Donald Trump announced his tariffs would go in effect against 86 countries beginning at midnight on Wednesday, April 9, reported CNBC. Prior to Tuesday, rumors had been swirling that Trump was going to enact a 90-day pause before enacting the tariffs.

Trump went on to say that negotiations with countries are “doing very well” and that he is working on a case-by-case basis. “These are tailored, highly tailored deals,” he said. 

The news followed a day where the stock market initially rallied only to give back all the gains and then some into the close. The Nasdaq sold off more than 7% from its daily high to where it ended up closing the day, a potential sign that we will be in a protracted Bear Market for some time.

Trump reverses tariffs on Wednesday

On Wednesday, President Trump announced that the tariff rate would drop to a flat 10% for all countries except China for the next 90 days to allow for negotiations, reported CNBC. Originally, Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” were supposed to take effect as of Wednesday at 12:01 a.m. ET. Meanwhile, China’s tariff rate was hiked to 125%, effective immediately, according to the White House.

White House advisors claim the flip flop was “always the strategy,” basically saying the entire past week was just theater despite causing the stock market to implode. Trump claims that 75 countries reached out to negotiate on tariffs, however the White House has refused to release the list of countries. 

After Trump’s announcement, the markets closed the day significantly higher with the S&P 500 rallying +9.52% and the Nasdaq rallying +12.16% in a single day.

Inflation eases to 2.4% in March, lower than expected

On Thursday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed inflation dropped 0.1% in March to a 12-month rate of 2.4%, down from 2.8% in February and lower than the 2.6% estimated by economists, reported CNBC.

While this is certainly good news on its surface, the bad news is that Trump’s tariffs had no effect on this reading. We won’t know if the tariffs cause the return of inflation until next month’s CPI reading.

“Today’s softer than expected CPI release feels backward looking given the large changes to trade policy seen in recent days,” said Kay Haigh, Global CoHhead of Fixed Income and Liquidity Solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “Going forward the Fed is likely to face a difficult trade-off as tariff driven price increases start to feed through to the inflation data and activity remains soft.”

China increases tariff on U.S. goods to 125%

On Friday, China announced it would retaliate against President Trump’s country-specific tariff by raising its own tariff on U.S. goods to 125% to match Trump’s, reported CNBC. This news came as a surprise to virtually no one as China has proven it has no interest in negotiating in the Trade War, preferring to take the war to Trump toe-to-toe.

“Even if the U.S. continues to impose higher tariffs, it will no longer make economic sense and will become a joke in the history of world economy,” the ministry said in a statement, according to a CNBC translation. “With tariff rates at the current level, there is no longer a market for U.S. goods imported into China,” the statement noted, adding that “if the U.S. government continues to increase tariffs on China, Beijing will ignore.

Wholesale prices unexpected fell 0.4% in March

While it should come no surprise after Thursday’s CPI report, Friday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) also indicated disinflation with producer prices dropping 0.4% in March, much lower than an increase of 0.2% expected by economists, reported CNBC. 

Just like with disinflation with CPI, this should have been good news since a decreasing PPI indicates the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation has been working. However, just like with CPI, we won’t know the effects of Trump’s 10% baseline tariffs combined with his 125% tariff against China until next month’s report.

Next Week’s Gameplan

Next week is pretty quiet in terms of scheduled datapoints. We have some Fedspeak sprinkled throughout next week with U.S. retail sales being along with the Home Builder Confidence Index on Wednesday.

As for earnings, most of my holdings don’t report quite yet, so the only one on my radar is Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) which reports before the market open on Tuesday (which also happens to be Tax Day for all you procrastinators out there).

However, given that Trump is the king of volatility, I won’t be remotely surprised if we see some more crazy price action thanks to his antics. And, of course, I will see you back here next Friday, friends! 

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Bitcoin falls down the tariff waterfall! Will $74K hold as new support?

Bitcoin set a much lower weekly high at 84,720.67 before breaking down completely over the weekend, making short work of the weekly low at $81,265.16 on Sunday.

This was exactly what I said I expected to happen in last week’s blog and on posts I made on X – there was no reason to think Bitcoin had suddenly become a “Safe Haven” asset, particularly given its volatility since making the all-time high around $109K.

On Monday, Bitcoin broke through the current cycle low of $76,555.00 as well as the key selloff target of $74,967.12, not setting a new low until $74,420.69, about $40 lower than a key past support from November 7, 2024 at $74,463.96.

Bitcoin saw a “Bull Trap” with every other asset class, rallying on the back of news that Trump paused reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday to create a lower weekly high of $83,583.35, before rolling over with the rest of the market to crash under $80K once more on Thursday.

The Bullish Case

Bulls believe the support at the $74,000 mark is significant and that buyers will continue to step in to buy the dip. Many different technical indicators and fundamental backdrops converge at that price point, so it will be incredibly important for the Bulls to hold that level if they don’t want Bitcoin to drop further.

The Bearish Case

Bears have the narrative on their side. Combine Trump’s flat 10% tariff across the globe, the increased tensions with China, the unknown effects of tariffs on inflation, and the unknown effects of the DOGE team’s cuts at the Federal Government, and investor’s have a “Witch’s Brew” of potential negative news catalysts.

Bears believe that a test of $70K is virtually certain with some predicting the drop will happen with the next week. Stay tuned!

Bitcoin Trade Update

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.