Summing Up The Week

The markets continued to rally over the course of the holiday-shortened week on the back of what at least pundit nicknamed “Softilocks.” A combination of softening economic data with increasing unemployment has created a counterintuitive environment where stocks rally on the hopes that the Federal Reserve will get the reassurance it needs to cut interest rates.

Of course, Nvidia (NVDA) swapping places with Apple (AAPL) in the SPDR Technology ETF XLK didn’t hurt matters, either, as the multi-billion dollar reallocation caused Nvidia to break through to new all-time highs and inspired even more investors to FOMO in to the seemingly-endless rocket ship ride.

Let’s look at the news that moved the markets this week…

Market News

U.S. Retail Sales rise 0.1%, less than expected

On Tuesday, the United States Retail Sales figures showed a rise of 0.1% in May versus the 0.2% expected by economists, reported CNBC. Pundits believe consumers continue to struggle with the high levels of inflation which led to less spending.

Gas stations saw a decrease due to the lowering cost of oil while restaurants and bars also saw a decrease, 2.2% and 0.4% declines, respectively. On the flip side, sports goods, music and book stores (there are still music and book stores??) saw an increase of 2.8% in spending.

While a weaker consumer typically isn’t good news as the U.S. economy is driven primarily by consumer spending, the S&P 500 continued to rally on Tuesday.

Homebuilder sentiment declines for 2nd month

On Wednesday, the NAHB/Wells Fargo House Market Index showed a decline for the second month in a row, declining to 43 in June versus estimates for 45, reported Seeking Alpha. Given that the housing market remains in a supply crunch, having homebuilders pull back on new construction is not good for the economy as inflation will persist in shelter until supply constraints are lifted.

“Persistently high mortgage rates are keeping many prospective buyers on the sidelines,” said NAHB Chairman Carl Harris, a custom home builder from Wichita, Kan. “Home builders are also dealing with higher rates for construction and development loans, chronic labor shortages and a dearth of buildable lots.”

“The best way to bring down shelter inflation and push the overall inflation rate down to the 2% range is to increase the nation’s housing supply. A more favorable interest rate environment for construction and development loans would help to achieve this aim,” he added. 

However, while homebuilders ask for an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, the persistent nature of inflation means a rate cut would likely have the opposite effect homebuilders are asking for.

With significant cash reserves and liquidity piling up on the sidelines, investors are looking for any available to sector to invest their money. A lower interest rate means cheaper mortgages which means wealthy investors could potentially buy up new housing supply as an investment and drive prices up even higher.

U.S. business activity up in June, but disinflation intact

On Friday, the flash U.S. Composite PMI, which tracks both manufacturing and services, increased slightly to 54.6 in June following a reading of 54.5 in May, reported Reuters. Any output above 50 indicates growth in the manufacturing and services sector which provides reassuring data that the economy remains strong. Additionally, the prices paid for input needs dropped to 56.6 from 57.2, an indication that disinflation – and even deflation in certain areas – is taking place, also good news.

Pundits believe that the analytics show that inflation is beginning to fall even closer toward the Federal Reserve’s benchmark target of 2%. “Historical comparisons indicate that the latest decline brings the survey’s price gauge into line with the Fed’s 2% inflation target,” said Chris Williamson, chief business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Next Week’s Gameplan

Next week brings more potential market-moving catalysts starting with the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Survey coming on Tuesday and the durable-goods orders on Thursday.

The big daddy catalyst next week comes on Friday with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation. There’s little doubt that the PCE print will move stocks one way or another, even if it comes in just as-expected.

The past week saw weakness in specific sectors such as fintech with individual names getting slammed. This trend could continue next week, so it’s important to have buying plans prepared for every name in the portfolio. Additionally, I ended up taking profits in Nvidia once more this week, so I also have upside sell targets for all of my positions in case we see this bipolar market continue.

In the meantime, try to stay cool in the summer heat and I’ll see you all back here next Friday, friends!

Check out Get Irked Premium on Substack!

After nearly six years of providing FREE content, the time constraints of producing Investments in Play, Speculation in Play, the Pandemic Portfolio, and Stock Shopping List have become too much to continue doing for free. On Substack, you can subscribe for FREE to have the Week in Review and Crypto Corner, now separate newsletters, sent to your email inbox at no cost. The portfolio updates and Stock Shopping List will be moving to a paid premium subscription. I hope you will join me on Substack as I continue on this exciting journey!


Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin's Road to Nowhere - Get Irked
Click chart for enlarged version

Bitcoin Price (in USD)


Weekly Change

Bitcoin Price Action

Bitcoin Bulls can’t catch a break…

From last Friday through Monday, Bitcoin seemed to be on a recovery until it rolled over and dumped once more, breaking through last week’s support at $65,005.00 and the next level of support at $64,588.50 before setting a new level of support at $64,010.01 on Tuesday. 

Bulls believed a pattern of higher-highs and higher-lows on shorter timeframes might indicate a reversal in the bearish trend until Bitcoin suddenly gave back all progress and then some on Thursday. On Friday, the new support found Thursday completely gave way with Bitcoin crashing through $64K and plummeted to $63,300.93 before finding any respite. 

The Bullish Case

Bulls desperately point to catalysts like the launch of Ethereum ETFs on July 2 as a reason for Bitcoin to turn around and become positive, but the big orange crypto is ignoring the Bulls. There are still some more stubborn Bulls who refuse to accept the bearish momentum, arguing that the price action is a result of Germany selling a few billion USD worth of Bitcoin into the open market (although blockchain analysis does not support the theory).

The Bearish Case

Bears continue to make the argument that the launch of every new crypto investment vehicle is a sell-the-news event and I wholeheartedly agree with this sentiment. However, unlike the Bears, my argument isn’t to sell the news, but, rather, to wait to add to positions until after the launch of the Ethereum ETFs.

I believe that, like what happened with the selloff following the launch of the Bitcoin ETFs, we could see a substantial selloff in crypto after the Ether ETFs launch, however that is a BUYING OPPORTUNITY, not a reason to panic.

While there are no promises that crypto will recover from such a selloff as quickly as it did from the Bitcoin ETF selloff, a -20% drawdown (or more) in Bitcoin would provide buying opportunities in Bitcoin, Ether, and the altcoin space, as long as investors remember to buy in stages and be prepared for epic drawdowns.

Bitcoin Trade Update

Premium subscribers to Get Irked get access to all the moves I’ve made in my Bitcoin trade over the past week as well as my next thirty (30) … yes, 30 … buys in Bitcoin including price levels, quantities, and a full layout of my ongoing long-term trade in the world’s biggest crypto.

If you aren’t already, subscribe to my Substack today!

Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

  • In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
  • Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
  • In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
  • In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
  • In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
  • In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
  • Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
  • Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
  • In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
  • Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
  • In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
  • In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
  • In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
  • In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
  • In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
  • In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
  • In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
  • In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
  • In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
  • Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
  • In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
  • In May, Bitcoin dropped -23% to a low of $56,500.00.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

The only reason I speculate in the cryptocurrency space is I truly believe Bitcoin isn’t headed to zero. I am prepared for that possibility, however, by knowing I could potentially lose all of the capital I’ve allocated to this speculative investment. Professional advisers recommend speculating with no more than 5% of an investor’s overall assets. Personally, I’ve allocated less than that to speculating in crypto. I feel that anyone who doesn’t fully believe in the long-term viability of cryptocurrency would be better served not speculating in the space. On a good day, this asset class isn’t suitable for those with weak stomachs. On volatile days, the sector can induce nausea in the most iron-willed speculator. If a speculator isn’t confident in the space, the moves will cause mistakes to be made.

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.

Suicide Hotline – You Are Not Alone

Studies show that economic recessions cause an increase in suicide, especially when combined with thoughts of loneliness and anxiety. If you or someone you know are having thoughts of suicide or self-harm, please contact the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline by visiting or calling 1-800-273-TALK. The hotline is open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.