Plug Power (PLUG)

Many investors must have pulled the plug and taken profits in hydrogen energy play Plug Power (PLUG) this week, as the stock suffered a -11.55% discharge, earning itself the Week’s Biggest Loser spot.

What is the Recovery Speculation Basket?

The Recovery Speculation Basket (“Recovery Spec”) represents stocks that will thrive if vaccines are released quickly and we return to normal but have the likelihood of collapsing if more lockdowns occur. These positions are too speculative to have their own allocation and share a single allocation.

Currently, my Recovery Spec stocks are as follows: the Airlines Exchange Traded Fund (JETS) and Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL). They are listed as a single allocation in the portfolio breakdown chart each week. 

Palantir Tech (PLTR): Added to Position

Palantir Tech (PLTR) continued to demonstrate weakness following its disappointing earnings guidance and the deadline on pre-IPO investors’ lockup period looming and triggered a buy order on Wednesday that filled at $27.50.

The buy lowered my per-share cost -6.35% from $31.50 to $29.50. From here, my next buy target is $25.00 and I have no sell targets, yet, although PLTR’s all-time high in the mid-$40s is certainly tempting.

PLTR closed the week at $29.00, up +5.45% from where I added Wednesday.

Feb 19 370-360 Put Spreads: *Total Loss: -100%*

I finally gave in to defeat with the SPY Put Spreads I had been rolling over since I first opened the position at the beginning of November 2020, embracing an epic complete and total loss of -$5.9914 on each of the spreads.

The time decay of the spreads had been causing a dark cloud to form over the entire portfolio, detracting from the gains in positions this year while the put spreads slowly lost more value with each passing day.

Although I do believe what many analysts say – that the market is due for a pullback – I’m going to take a little time to lick my wounds and stick to my knitting of trading around stock positions rather than playing with options.

What’s the moral to this trade?

You can’t time the markets.

Despite many professionals pointing to the overbought conditions of the market, low interest rates combined with incoming stimulus and nowhere else to invest money means money seems to be pouring into the markets.

Do I believe we’re going to rally forever with no pullback?

Absolutely not, but my efforts to try and time the market cost my Speculation in Play portfolio to the tune of an astounding -13.76% from November to now, a true testament to how well the stock positions in this portfolio have performed seeing as the portfolio has somehow managed to stay green Year-to-Date.

YOWTCH!