July 14, 2023
The Week’s Biggest Winner & Loser
Coinbase (COIN)
When crypto company Ripple won a key part of a lawsuit with the SEC which determined retail buyers of its XRP altcoin were not buying an investment but a commodity, instead, the entire crypto sector exploded the the upside.
Coinbase (COIN), which has battling the SEC over a similar issue, jumped an eye-watering +33.76% this week, easily cashing in as the Week’s Biggest Winner.
Canopy Growth Corp (CGC)
The good news is that Canopy Growth Corp (CGC) was able to renegotiate $333 million in debt that it owes banks to remain in operation. The bad news is that the terms were far from favorable for the company. Beggars can’t be choosers, after all.
As a result, CGC lit the place on fire once again, dropping -19.29% and swinging in as the Week’s Biggest Loser.
Portfolio Allocation
Positions
%
Target Position Size
Current Position Performance
Nvidia (NVDA)
+1479.69%*
1st Buy 9/6/2016 @ $15.67
Current Per-Share: (-$204.95)*
Apple (AAPL)
+979.72%*
1st Buy 4/18/2013 @ $14.17
Current Per-Share: (-$77.58)*
Tesla (TSLA)
+711.89%*
1st Buy 3/12/2020 @ $37.10
Current Per-Share: (-$48.28)*
Boeing (BA)
+688.36%*
1st Buy 2/14/2012 @ $79.58
Current Per-Share: (-$179.40)*
Block (SQ)
+556.12%*
1st Buy 8/5/2016 @ $11.10
Current Per-Share: (-$75.30)*
Logitech (LOGI)
+521.99%*
1st Buy 11/11/2016 @ $24.20
Current Per-Share: -($0.81)*
Skyworks (SWKS)
+501.17%*
1st Buy 1/31/2020 @ $113.60
Current Per-Share: (-$34.72)*
IDEXX Labs (IDXX)
+463.74%*
1st Buy 7/26/2017 @ $167.29
Current Per-Share: (-$220.95)*
Nike (NKE)
+424.68%*
1st Buy 2/14/2012 @ $26.71
Current Per-Share: (-$10.49)*
Dow (DOW)
+310.02%*
1st Buy 5/13/2019 @ $53.18
Current Per-Share: (-$0.33)*
Salesforce (CRM)
+160.01%
1st Buy 6/11/2018 @ $134.05
Current Per-Share: $88.20
JP Morgan (JPM)
+154.07%
1st Buy 10/26/2017 @ $102.30
Current Per-Share: $58.95
Disney (DIS)
+153.24%*
1st Buy 2/14/2012 @ $41.70
Current Per-Share: (-$2.87)*
Take Two (TTWO)
+124.05%
1st Buy 10/9/2018 @ $128.40
Current Per-Share: $66.95
SoFi (SOFI)
+116.20%
1st Buy 11/22/2022 @ $4.80
Current Per-Share: $4.20
Amazon (AMZN)
+101.02%
1st Buy 2/6/2018 @ $69.15
Current Per-Share: $67.00
Meta (META)
+97.68%*
1st Buy 9/16/2017 @ $128.58
Current Per-Share: -($323.00)*
Berkshire (BRK.B)
+81.66%
1st Buy 8/2/2019 @ $199.96
Current Per-Share: $187.77
Visa (V)
+39.81%
1st Buy 5/9/2022 @ $194.00
Current Per-Share: $173.93
Morgan Stan (MS)
+33.33%
1st Buy 4/25/2022 @ $83.50
Current Per-Share: $64.34
Alphabet (GOOGL)
+32.65%
1st Buy 9/16/2022 @ $101.93
Current Per-Share: $94.55
Zoetis (ZTS)
+20.87%
1st Buy 6/13/2022 @ $157.55
Current Per-Share: $142.46
Roblox (RLBX)
-4.23%
1st Buy 9/29/2021 @ $77.00
Current Per-Share: $44.90
Schwab (SCHW)
-8.49%
1st Buy 4/18/2022 @ $76.30
Current Per-Share: $63.95
Rivian (RIVN)
-16.70%
1st Buy 11/12/2021 @ $127.00
Current Per-Share: $29.80
Dutch Bros (BROS)
-17.44%
1st Buy 9/20/2021 @ $42.25
Current Per-Share: $34.70
Twilio (TWLO)
-26.01%
1st Buy 8/8/2019 @ $125.71
Current Per-Share: $90.40
Coinbase (COIN)
-49.37%
1st Buy 4/14/2021 @ $412.47
Current Per-Share: $208.00
Canopy (CGC)
-90.27%
1st Buy 5/24/2018 @ $29.53
Current Per-Share: $3.95
* Indicates a position where the capital investment was sold.
Profit % for * positions = Total Profit / Starting Capital Investment
A negative share price indicates the dollar amount of profit for each share currently held.
This Week’s Moves
Disney (DIS): Profit-Taking
When Disney (DIS) saw a measly rally following the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday despite the rest of the market leaping higher and then DIS encountered resistance at the $90 level… again… I decided it was time to pull all of my remaining capital out of the position and play with the house’s money.
I have been an investor in Disney since February 14, 2012 – more than 11 years – and I have no other positions in the portfolio of that age which aren’t already playing with the house’s money. Between reports that the theme parks aren’t performing well and the recent series of box-office bombs, my faith in Disney has been tested.
My concerns were reinforced when CEO Bob Iger interviewed with CNBC on Thursday morning, announcing he would be staying at the role for an additional two years (initially, he was to return for two years when he came back… now it’s four) due to problems facing the company being more extensive than he originally thought.
I have no problem holding on to Disney as a risk-free position with the company seeing challenges, however I need to have all of my capital removed to make it risk-free. Additionally, with an 11-year-old position, there shouldn’t be any investment capital in it and that further motivated me to sell it down.
My sell order filled at $90.16, locking in +116.21% in gains on shares I bought when I opened the position at $41.70 on February 14, 2012. The sale lowered my per-share cost -$33.32 from $30.45 to -$2.87 (a negative per-share cost indicates all capital has been removed in addition to $2.87 per share added to the portfolio’s bottom line in addition to each share’s current value).
From here, I will start adding the profits back in with a buy price target of $84.89, slightly above Disney’s 2022 low, and I will take even more profits out at $103.54, slightly under Disney’s most recent high in 2023.
DIS closed the week at $88.62, down -1.71% from where I took profits Wednesday.
Dow Chemical (DOW): Profit-Taking
When the rally continued even further following the release of the Producers Price Index (PPI) on Thursday, I decided it was time to take all of the remaining capital out of my Dow Chemical (DOW) position.
I’ve held DOW since May 3, 2019, and although I do believe in its long-term prospects, I had more actual capital in this position than any other position in the entire portfolio. Given that industrials are cyclical by nature and underperform overwhelmingly during recessions, and combine that with the perspective of many bearish analysts predicting a downturn later in 2023 or early 2024, it seemed prudent to remove my capital and play with the house’s money. Additionally, with Dow’s ample dividend (more than 5.17% annually at current levels!), the position will grow substantially over time just through reinvesting the dividend alone.
My sell order filled at $54.19, locking in +57.85% in gains on shares I bought for an average price of $34.33 during the March 2020 selloff, and lowered my per-share cost -$28.93 from $28.60 to -$0.33 (a negative per-share cost indicates all capital has been removed in addition to $0.33 per share added to the portfolio’s bottom line in addition to each share’s current value).
From here, my next buy target is $43.89, a bit above Dow’s 2022 lows, and my next sell target is $60.19, slightly under the high Dow saw earlier in 2023.
DOW closed the week at $52.92, down -2.34% from where I took profits Thursday.
JP Morgan Chase (JPM): Profit-Taking
JP Morgan Chase (JPM) popped over $150/shr on Friday following an earnings beat analysts weren’t anticipating. Since JPM is now part of a Finance Basket, I need to reduce my allocation size, so I took profits with a sale which filled at $151.56.
While the sale didn’t lock in much in the way of gains, just +0.33% selling shares I bought for $151.16 on January 18, 2022, it served the bigger purpose of reducing the allocation size and cost basis, reducing my per-share cost -10.57% from $65.92 to $58.95.
From here, my next sell target is $161.51, slightly below a past point of resistance, and my next buy target is $102.12, above JPM’s low in 2022.
JPM closed the week at $149.77, down -1.18% from where I took profits Friday.
Nvidia (NVDA): Profit-Taking
Nvidia (NVDA) made a run for its all-time high on Wednesday following news that it would be opting for a significant share of the new Arm Holdings Initial Public Offering (IPO) that was announced. Accordingly, I took more profits with a sell order which filled at $437.45, locking in +2,691.64% in gains on shares I bought for $15.67 when I opened the position on September 6, 2016.
The sale lowered my per-share “cost” -$42.40 from -$162.55 to -$204.95 (a negative per-share cost indicates all capital has been removed in addition to $204.95 per share added to the portfolio’s bottom line in addition to each share’s current value).
Even after the sale, Nvidia remains the largest position in the portfolio and still substantially exceeds the 7.14% target position allocation size by such an extent that I must weigh the need to take additional profits. That being said, my next sell target for Nvidia is now $499.49, just a bit under the key psychological resistance at $500, and my next buy target is $280.64, above a key point of support Nvidia saw just a few months ago.
NVDA closed the week at $454.69, up +3.94% from where I took profits Wednesday.
See you next week!
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