Summing Up The Week

The stock market spent the week behaving like a caffeinated tightrope walker —confident one moment, wobbling the next — as a trio of heavyweight economic reports took turns yanking sentiment around.

A surprisingly strong January jobs surge briefly lifted spirits before stocks promptly lost their footing. Housing data followed with an 8% face‑plant that reminded everyone affordability may be improving, but buyers are still hiding like Punxsutawney Phil.

And, just when investors hoped Friday’s cooler‑than‑expected inflation print might offer a soft landing, the market shrugged. In short, the data said “things are getting better,” while the market replied, “we’re not buying it.”

Let’s take a deeper dive into the news that moved the markets this week…

Market News

Jobs rose by 130K in January, more than expected

On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the delayed January jobs report which showed nonfarm payrolls increased 130,000 in January versus expectations for 55,000, reported CNBC.

Analysts were pleased with the results. “It was a January job surge,” said Heather Long, Chief Economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “The surprisingly strong job gains in January were driven mainly by health care and social assistance. But it is enough to stabilize the job market and send the unemployment rate slightly lower. This is still a largely frozen job market, but it is stabilizing. That’s an encouraging sign to start the year, especially after the hiring recession in 2025.”

Initially, the market reacted positively to the news as a stronger-than-expected labor market shows a sign of strength for the economy, however stocks rolled over  within an hour after the markets opened. 

January home sales collapse 8%, potential buyers are “struggling”

On Thursday, the existing home sales in January showed a much wider-than-expected drop of 8.4% from December’s numbers, prompting analysts to believe the housing market is far from as strong as thought, reported CNBC.

Buyers are still refusing to come out of the woodwork despite affordability actually improving. “Affordability conditions are improving, with the [National Association of Realtors’] Housing Affordability Index showing that housing is the most affordable it’s been since March 2022,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Chief Economist in a press release. “This is due to wage gains outpacing home price growth and mortgage rates being lower than a year ago. However, supply has not kept pace and remains quite low… and potential buyers are still struggling.”

The markets had opened up substantially on Thursday but rolled over following the potential weakening housing market as housing remains a critical component of the strength of the U.S. economy.

Inflation rose 2.4% in January, less than expected

On Friday, January’s delayed Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed consumer prices rose 2.4% year-over-year, which was less than the 2.5% expected by Dow Jones, reported CNBC.

Economists were very pleased with the low CPI print. “This is great news on inflation” with inflation falling “to the lowest level since May and key items such as food, gas and rent are cooling off,” said Heather Long, Chief Economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “This will provide much needed relief for middle class and moderate-income families.”

Next Week’s Gameplan

Next week’s gameplan kicks off on Tuesday with the Empire State manufacturing survey followed by Wednesday bringing in durable-goods orders and retail inventories along with the minutes from January’s Federal Reserve meeting.

However, the big news events come later in the week on Friday when we get both Q4 GDP, and, perhaps most importantly, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for December. Since the PCE is the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, a lot of their future actions will be influenced by the trend of the PCE.

Plus, earnings continues, too, with my following holdings reporting next week:

• Tuesday: Palo Alto Networks (PANW) reports After Market Close (AMC).
• Wednesday: Equinox (EQX) and Nutrien (NTR) report AMC.
• Thursday: Lemonade (LMND) and Yeti (YETI) report Before Market Open (BMO). Newmont Mining (NEM) and Open Technologies (OPEN) report AMC.

So, there are a lot of different datapoints coming at us next week which might roil markets! Join me back here next Friday when we go over all the grisly details, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Bitcoin spent the last week stabilizing after the Bears positively decimated the world’s largest cryptocurrency last week. Bitcoin set a weekly high at $72,232.17 on Sunday, not even a 50% retracement of the selloff from Wednesday, January 14 to last Friday, barely coming just a bit short of the 38.20% Fibonacci level at $72,358.36. Big Orange rolled over from there, setting a higher low on Thursday at $65,065.47.

Is the bottom in for this Crypto Winter?

I’m seeing an interesting trend in narrative that often marks the bottom of past Crypto Winters – long-time Bears are coming out of the woodwork claiming Bitcoin is dead and is headed to zero. Most notably, popular YouTube channel More Perfect Union released a video featuring long-time skeptic Ben McKenzie explaining why Bitcoin is headed to $0 and why – I’m not kidding here – “this time is different” and claiming that the introduction of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) will be the catalyst to finally take Bitcoin down to its “rightful” price.

I’m also seeing analysts who were bearish since October capitulate and start buying back positions they sold much higher to lock in those discounts, no doubt a prudent risk management move.

Long-time followers of mine know that, in past Crypto Winters, I have warned that the bottom isn’t truly in until the Bears start publicly announcing the “Bitcoin is dead” narrative.

Total despair is what marks the bottom.

But, are we seeing “total despair?” I can’t shake the reality that this -52.50% selloff from the most recent all-time high wouldn’t just be the shallowest Crypto Winter in history, it would be the shallowest by an incredible margin with the least shallow Crypto Winter to-date seeing Bitcoin collapse -77.57% from its all-time high.

Granted, each subsequent Crypto Winter has seen a higher bottom for Bitcoin which means we could expect less than a -77.57% crash this time, but a bottom of $60,001.00 is +111.81% higher than the $28,328.19 price target that would be an equivalent 2022 selloff from Bitcoin’s current all-time high.

Still, the possibility that Bitcoin has, indeed, bottomed is out there.

This is why I always say: our job as investors isn’t to predict direction or timing, our job is to have a plan for both directions: what are you going to do if Bitcoin heads higher from here? And, what are you going to do if Bitcoin heads lower from here?

The Bullish Case

Bulls believe the bottom is in. The chorus from big names in the space claim that Bitcoin has finished its round of selling. Since the minimum profitable cost for mining a Bitcoin is $60,000 and that support hold, it means Bitcoin’s headed to new all-time highs with some calling for new ATHs before the year-end (and other loonier types claiming we’ll see Bitcoin over $126K before the summer).

The Bearish Case

Bears point to the price action of past Crypto Winters which bear an incredible familiarity to the current price action. Crypto Winters don’t see Bitcoin make just one or two capitulation points, but several. Currently, we’ve seen two critical points of capitulation since last year’s ATH: one on November 21 and another last Friday on February 6. However, that’s only two. The Bears argue there are more capitulation days to come with price targets deep into the $40K, $30K, and $20K region.

Bitcoin Trade Update

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.
• In February 2026, Bitcoin dropped -53% to a low of $60,001.00.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.