Summing Up The Week

The stock market spent the week ricocheting between optimism and indigestion as Washington, Wall Street, and Silicon Valley each took turns stirring the pot.

President Trump kicked things off with a celebratory announcement of a new U.S.–India trade deal — one that may or may not actually exist on paper — sending traders into a brief but enthusiastic victory lap.

That enthusiasm met a hard pause when the government shutdown delayed the all‑important BLS payroll report, leaving investors to squint at ADP’s far‑weaker‑than‑expected numbers instead.

And, just when the market thought it had digested all the uncertainty, Google (GOOGL) lobbed a curveball of its own: a blowout quarter paired with a jaw‑dropping AI spending spree that promptly knocked the wind out of tech stocks.

In short, it was a week where confidence was plentiful, clarity was scarce, and volatility had no trouble finding a seat at the table.

Let’s take a deeper dive into the news that moved the markets this week…

Market News

President Trump announces U.S. trade deal with India

On Monday, President Donald Trump announced the United States had reached a trade deal with India and he would immediately lower tariffs on the country, reported CNBC.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to buy American goods “at a much higher level” and would “stop buying Russian Oil, and to buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela,” said Trump in the TruthSocial post.

Trump’s announcement asserts the agreements struck on the call will take effect without delay, however the deal itself has yet to be reviewed and there is no clear indication as to whether an actual deal had been signed. Those in private industry have decided to wait to ensure Trump’s pronouncement take place, “It’s official once the Federal Register is posted with dates, times, and applicable tariff codes,” said Lori Mullins, Director of Operations at Rogers & Brown Custom Brokers.

BLS payroll report for January delayed due to shutdown

On Monday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced it would not release the January jobs report on Friday due to the partial government shutdown which started on Saturday, reported CNBC.

Many analysts had been pointing to January’s labor report as a key datapoint which would have offered valuable insight into the state of the U.S. labor market and potentially the economy. The news had no tangible effects on markets as stocks continued to rise based on the resolution of the U.S. and Indian trade deal.

Private payrolls rose 22K in January, far lower than expected

On Wednesday, private payroll processor ADP’s employment report showed companies added only 22,000 jobs in January, far lower than the 45,000 estimated by Dow Jones economists, reported CNBC.

Normally, I don’t give a lot of credence to ADP’s report, preferring the BLS payroll report, as there are is typically a lot of variance between the two. Unfortunately, with the government shutdown, BLS won’t be releasing their report for January so ADP’s is all the market has to go on.

Despite that, markets shrugged off the ADP report initially, at least, with the market futures showing no change before opening on Wednesday. However, that narrative changed later in the day with the S&P 500 closing down more than -0.50% and the Nasdaq down more than -1.50%.

Google scares investors by increasing AI spend

On Wednesday, Alphabet (GOOGL) initially impressed investors with a blowout quarter only to announce it would dramatically increase 2026 capital expenditures to between $175-$185 billion, reported CNBC. Initially, Google’s stock rallied in after-hours trading on the news of the good quarter, but then the sheer size of the spending increase started to sink in.

Investors were already nervous about companies spending exorbitant amounts of money with no obvious return on capital, but when Google announced it would more than double its 2025 spend, that news broke the camel’s back. Alphabet’s stock rolled over before the market opened on Thursday and took much of the entire market with it.

Next Week’s Gameplan

Next week should bring us a lot of datapoints assuming the partial government shutdown ends. On Tuesday, we should get the delayed U.S. retail sales for December followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday, and, then, existing home sales and jobless claims on Thursday.

All of these would provide some insights into the health of the U.S. economy and consumer, but, like I said, many of these are dependent on the Federal Government reopening so whether or not we actually receive these reports is still up in the air.

What we know we definitely will get are more earnings reports, and here’s what I’m looking at from my holdings:

• Tuesday: Robinhood (HOOD) reports After Market Close (AMC).
• Wednesday: Shopify (SHOP) reports Before Market Open (BMO).
• Thursday: Brookfield (BN), Iridium Communications (IRDM), and Zoetis (ZTS) report BMO. Coinbase (COIN),  DraftKings (DKNG), Dutch Bros (BROS), Pinterest (PINS), Rivian (RIVN), and Twilio (TWLO) report AMC.
• Friday: Cameco (CCJ) reports AMC.

Regardless of whether we get any data from the government, next week promises to bring the heat when it comes to earnings (particularly on Thursday after the close!). Meet me back here next Friday and we’ll go over it all, friends! 

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

As I wrote last week about how I thought Bitcoin’s weakness could continue based on its price action over the past few months, Bitcoin wasted no time slicing through last week’s low at $81,000.12 plus the supports at $80,524.65 and $78,167.81. The situation went from bad to worse when Bitcoin sliced through the key support level at $74,420.69 – the low of the Tariff Tantrum in April 2025.

Intriguingly, Bitcoin did briefly find support at my Next Support of Last Resort trendline (in blue). I created this trendline back in January 2019 following the rout of November 2018 which saw Bitcoin crash to $3,130. However, as I anticipated, even this age-old support failed to hold when Bitcoin broke through $70K early on Thursday morning.

On Friday, Bitcoin may have finally capitulated when it found support right at $60,001.00. However, thinking this might be the bottom could still be far too optimistic. Why? Because that’s “only” a -52.49% selloff from the All-Time High (ATH).

The shallowest Crypto Winter to date was the most recent one in 2022 which saw a -77.57% selloff from ATH to cycle low. Past Crypto Winters have seen selloffs in excess of -90%. From the current ATH, a selloff as shallow as 2022’s Crypto Winter gives us a bottom target of $28,328.19.

Don’t listen to the so-called “experts” claiming sentiment has never been this low. This is exactly how it felt when Bitcoin sold off to $6,000 in 2018 before selling off nearly another -50% to $3,130. This is exactly how it felt in 2022 when Bitcoin sold off to $30,000 before selling off nearly another -50% to under $16,000.

Does it already feel terrible out there? Yes.

Is it awful seeing our crypto portfolios dramatically underwater while gold, silver, and equities continue to trade near all-time highs? Yes.

Does that mean the Bear Market in crypto is over? Absolutely not.

In fact, we could have another -50% lower to go.

The Bullish Case

Bulls tried to claim the flush down to $81K last Friday was a positive sign because it meant all the “weak hands” were taken out and that meant we’d head higher.

They were wrong.

Bulls tried to claim $74,420.69 would hold because it was a key level of support found during the Tariff Tantrum.

They were wrong.

There is no Bullish thesis that holds any water currently.

The best Bullish strategy right now? Ignore the Bulls entirely. Period.

Could Bitcoin have already found support and recover from here? Sure, anything’s possible. However, in the investing world, we have to base our expectations on past patterns and current price action because, unfortunately, that’s the only data we have.

No one can see the future.

The Bearish Case

Bears are in full control of the crypto market right now. Reasonable Bears argue Bitcoin has a lot further to sell off with targets deep into the $50K region and lower. At this point, even price targets in the $20K-$40K range are perfectly acceptable based on the selloffs of past Crypto Winters.

Naturally, we’re seeing crazy Bears coming out of the woodwork now who claim that Bitcoin is done and it’s headed to zero. This is the third Crypto Winter I’ve lived through where I was actively trading Bitcoin and there is always at least a dozen whackadoodles claiming Bitcoin is not going to zero.

I don’t believe Bitcoin will ever go to zero. Ever. I do believe it will be trading at new all-time highs in the future.

Can Bitcoin sell off below $30K in the meantime? Absolutely. Anything is possible in this space.

While it hasn’t happened since 2017, there have been Crypto Winters in Bitcoin’s past that have seen selloffs of -90% and more from an ATH to the cycle low, so, as always, my gameplan remains the same: make a plan for any possible outcome.

Bitcoin Trade Update

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.
• In February 2026, Bitcoin dropped -53% to a low of $60,001.00.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.