Summing Up The Week

The “Santa Claus Rally” is an odd thing in the stock market. Given its name, there’s a lot of confusion around when, specifically, it happens each year (if it happens at all). Despite sounding like it would happen before the Christmas holiday, the Santa Claus Rally time period runs from the first trading day after Christmas through the first two trading days of the new year.

In order to be defined as a “successful” Santa rally, the S&P 500 needs to be higher than its close from the trading before Christmas. In other words, the market can throw a volatile Santa Claus Rally at traders where stocks might sell off initially after Christmas only to rally higher by the second trading day in December.

With the S&P selling off more than -1.00% into the last day of 2025, it looked like Santa may have skipped the markets for the third year running. Then, stocks rallied… initially… on the first trading day of 2026 but, throughout the day, the price action made it very clear that the Bulls did not have the upper-hand.

So, with one day left, it’s make-it-or-break-it time: will Santa skip stocks for the third year in a row?

We won’t find out the answer until next week, but, for now, let’s take a deep dive into what moved markets this week and what’s on the gameplan headed into a new year!

Market News

Fed minutes showed December rate cut was close to not happening

On Tuesday, the minutes from the last meeting of the Federal Reserve showed there was some heated discussions and misgivings over the accelerated rate cuts, reported CNBC.

The members’ concerns specifically focused on the potential for inflation to return. “Most participants judged that further downward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate if inflation declined over time as expected,” the minutes said. “With respect to the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, some participants suggested that, under their economic outlooks, it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for some time after a lowering of the range at this meeting.”

The markets were unfazed by the release of the minutes, closing the day down only slightly which was more likely the result of profit-taking which had been taking place since the Christmas holiday.

Next Week’s Gameplan

The new year kicks off with a slew of economic datapoints coming out next week. The ones I really will be keeping my eye on are Monday’s auto sales numbers, Wednesday’s ADP employment report, and Friday’s jobs numbers along with the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey results. Those four reports will provide significant insights both into the health of the U.S. consumer as well as the health of the U.S. labor market.

Plus, I know this sounds crazy, but Earnings Season is just around the corner so investors might try to front-run the numbers of their favorite companies by either adding to positions or taking profits ahead of key reports.

So, meet me back here next Friday as we go through all of the week’s price action, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Bitcoin continued to struggle with increasingly powerful resistance over the past week and was unable to make a higher-high, clocking in at $90,325.00 on Monday, just under last week’s high of $90,541.80.

The crypto did manage a higher weekly-low at $86,675.00, too, however the price action is decidedly lackluster likely due to the holiday week. It’s hard to come up with any argument that Bitcoin’s changed its ongoing bearish momentum, but that won’t stop the Bulls from trying.

The real news this week was the end of 2025 which saw Bitcoin turn a gain of more than +35% when it made its all-time high in October into a loss on the entire year, down -6.42%!

The total reversal meant from Bitcoin’s all-time high to the close of 2025, the crypto lost an agonizing -30.72% in value. This result on the year is particularly excruciating with the S&P 500 finishing up +16.65%, and “store-of-value” assets like gold up 64.742% and silver up 143.20%!

The Bullish Case

Bulls argue that the Bears’ inability to drive Bitcoin below $83,800.00 and even less to test the cycle low of $80,524.65 is actually a Bullish sign indicating great amounts of support. Some of the more exuberant Bulls believe Bitcoin will make a new all-time high within January, a seasonably good month for equities (although unproven for Bitcoin and crypto).

Unfortunately, I continue to side with the Bears here as I don’t feel there is any evidence of a reversal of fortune.

The Bearish Case

Bears argue that the weakening price action indicates buyers exiting the space for greener pastures like equities and precious metals. Additionally, Bitcoin’s current price action is incredibly reminiscent of late 2018 where Bitcoin continued to see weaker highs, seemed to maintain a low around $6,000, but then lost all support and crashed another -50% down to $3,127. Some Bears expect to see a similar move this time around which would give Bitcoin a low somewhere in the $45K-$50K region!

Bitcoin Trade Update

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.
• In November, Bitcoin dropped -36% to a low of $80,524.65.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.