Summing Up The Week

Santa Claus came to town during this holiday-shortened week (with markets closed on Christmas Day and trading only Monday–Wednesday plus Friday). U.S. stock indexes posted solid gains amid thin volume, indicating the start of the year-end Santa Claus rally which, traditionally, runs from the day after Christmas through the first few days of the new year.

Major indexes notched five consecutive daily gains through Christmas Eve, driven by optimism around artificial intelligence, resilient economic data, and expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. Trading was light, with no major earnings or economic releases disrupting the upward momentum.

Let’s take a deeper dive into the news that moved markets this week…

Market News

U.S. economy grew by 4.3% in Q3, much more than expected

On Tuesday, the delayed Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for the United States showed the economy grew by 4.3% in the third quarter, much more than the 3.2% gain expected by economists, reported CNBC. Additionally, the late release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, showed inflation increasing 2.8% over the same period, much higher than the 2.1% PCE for the quarter prior.

In relation to GDP, this is a textbook case of “good news being bad news,” the markets rolled over on the back of the report as a stronger-than-expected economy. The hotter-than-expected inflation data also added fuel to the selloff fire as both combined suggest the Federal Reserve needs to halt its interest-rate cutting cycle as the economy is running too hot.

However, while stocks pulled back initially on the news, the animal spirits took over once more (maybe even reindeer spirits as we approach the Santa Claus rally time period…?) and stocks returned to rally mode.

Next Week’s Gameplan

Now that it looks like Santa has arrived, will he be able to carry us through to the New Year in what’s traditionally called “The Santa Claus Rally?” Well, next week brings us a bit of data in the form of the Chicago Business Barometer PMI and minutes from December’s Fed meeting on Tuesday, but we’re once again heading into another holiday-shortened week.

While there won’t be any half-days like Christmas Eve, the markets will be closed on Thursday for New Year’s Day which means trading volume will likely be light all week. Accordingly, the market tends to continue in the direction of the momentum, so if we see the Santa Rally continue early in the week, it will likely carry us through into the new year.

And, while volume might be light, I won’t be – I’ll meet you back here to go over all the week’s events, friends! 

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Bitcoin continues to trade within a tight range. While the crypto did manage to squeak out a slightly-higher weekly-high at $90,541.80 (last week’s was $90,336.36), the immediate rejection at that level indicates the ongoing trend is bearish. Additionally, Bitcoin did manage a higher weekly-low at $86,350.00, too, but that support seems tepid, at best.

The Bears are still very much in control of the narrative.

The Bullish Case

Bulls try to make the argument that the series of higher-lows and higher-highs combined with the lack of further downward push indicates a reversal in Bitcoin. Unfortunately, this argument lacks any real conviction since the long-term trend for Bitcoin is very profoundly to the downside.

The Bearish Case

Bears point out that in order for Bitcoin to truly reverse the current trend, it needs to start breaking above the moving averages, and use them as support rather than resistance to head higher. In fact, as long as Bitcoin remains below its 200-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) which is currently trading around $101,500, there is nothing in the charts or the momentum suggesting the Bulls have made any ground.

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.
• In November, Bitcoin dropped -36% to a low of $80,524.65.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.