Summing Up The Week

Has the bull market come to an end or is this pullback simply the pause that refreshes? The markets weren’t particularly strong for the majority of the week, briefly rallying after Nvidia reported earnings only to roll over and give it all back. 

On Friday, the Fed attempted to ride in to save the day by sending out the New York Fed President to give some dovish words of encouragement. While markets did react positively, the price action on Friday was incredibly shaky as the rally was used as a ripcord for some investors to take profits and get out while the getting was good.

Let’s take a deeper dive into the news that moved markets this week…

Market News

Meeting minutes show a divided Fed

To what should come as no surprise to anyone, the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s October meeting shows the FOMC were divided over an October rate cut, which also led to disagreements over a cut in December, reported CNBC on Wednesday.

“Several participants assessed that a further lowering of the target range for the federal funds rate could well be appropriate in December if the economy evolved about as they expected over the coming intermeeting period,” the minutes said. “Many participants suggested that, under their economic outlooks, it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year.”

Just as Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in the press conference following October’s meeting, the minutes state there is no guarantee for a rate cut in December, “In discussing the near-term course of monetary policy, participants expressed strongly differing views about what policy decision would most likely be appropriate at the Committee’s December meeting.”

Nvidia blows away expectations with earnings and guidance

After the market closed on Wednesday, Nvidia (NVDA) reported earnings and topped expectations for earnings as well as provided much stronger guidance than Wall Street had estimated, reported CNBC. Nvidia’s earnings came in at $1.30 per share versus the $1.25 estimate with revenue totaling $57,01 billion versus $54.92 billion estimated.

Additionally, CEO Jensen Huang reported demand for the current-generation GPU, Blackwell, is “off the charts” as sales continue to exceed the company’s expectations going so far as to say “cloud GPUS are sold out” in a statement.

While markets rallied initially on Thursday following Nvidia’s announcement, they quickly rolled over with the S&P 500 dropping more than 3% from the daily high to its low – an incredibly bearish reversal of price action.

September jobs report showed 119K new jobs, 4.4% unemployment

On Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the delayed September jobs report which showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, more than expected, and an unemployment rate at 4.4%, reported CNBC. Additionally, the BLS said that there would be no October report released as a result of the government shutdown.

While the addition of new jobs was positive and not expected, the unemployment rate was also higher than expected. In fact, at 4.4%, unemployment is at its highest rate since October 2021, potentially an indication of the bifurcated economy affecting those who are struggling.

While initially the markets shrugged off the data in favor of Nvidia’s blowout earnings report, the S&P 500 which was as high as nearly +2% at one point, rolled over midday and gave back much of the gains.

Fed President John Williams see reason for rate cuts

One of the worst-kept secrets in Wall Street is how the Federal Reserve will roll out a hawk or a dove to try to keep the markets under control, and this technique was on full display on Friday when New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said he expects the central bank to cut its interest rate due to labor market weakness, reported CNBC.

“I view monetary policy as being modestly restrictive, although somewhat less so than before our recent actions,” he said in remarks for a speech in Santiago, Chile. “Therefore, I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral, thereby maintaining the balance between the achievement of our two goals.”

The markets suffered an incredible reversal rout on Thursday with the S&P 500 losing more than -3% from its daily high to its low and the Nasdaq seeing even greater losses. As a result, investors and traders were nervous heading into Friday with the futures deep in the red and Bitcoin careening toward $80K finding a bottom slightly above around $80,600. Naturally, this all reversed on the back of Williams’ comments with the futures turning green before the markets opened and Bitcoin bouncing back up to over $83K.

Next Week’s Gameplan

With a holiday-shortened week thanks to American Thanksgiving on Thursday, we should see some interesting price action. Additionally, with the U.S. government officially reopened, we can hope to see some datapoints, too.

On Tuesday, we’ll get the consumer confidence for November and retail sales report for September (delayed due to the shutdown). On Wednesday, we may get the first revision of Q3 GDP as well as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for October. If we do see the PCE, this could provide a lot of insights into the state of inflation in the U.S. as this gauge is the Fed’s preferred method of tracking inflation.

While we’re still not out of earnings season, I have no holdings reporting next week so I’ll be able to take a little break from that, at least, however the next week will be bringing some significant ones with Salesforce (CRM), Snowflake (SNOW), and UiPath (PATH) all reporting that week.

Regardless of what happens next week, I’ll meet you back here on Black Friday to go over all the news that moved markets, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Shortly after last week’s Crypto Corner went to “print,” Bitcoin made quick work of the weekly-low as well as the next level of support, breaking through $93,363.28 on Sunday. Then, it got worse – Bitcoin continued breaking support levels including $91,685.18 as well as key psychological round-number support at $90K before breaking below the key support at $89,028.64 from this past June.

The selloff didn’t stop there, either. On Thursday night, Bitcoin broke below another key support level at $83,972.82 on its seemingly never-ending drop toward the $80K mark. In fact, at the time of writing, Bitcoin still hasn’t found real support with a short-term bottom at $81,340.00.

The weekly high of $96,747.02 on Saturday simply represents an anemic “Dead Cat Bounce,” where, after a significant selloff, there’s an exhaustion of selling at least temporarily where buyers rush in but are only able to cause the asset to bounce a tiny percentage of the selloff.

The Bullish Case

The Bulls have stopped claiming a bottom is near and are now scrambling for people or companies to blame with some going after Michael Saylor, CEO of Strategy (MSTR), for using too much leverage when adding Bitcoin to his balance sheet while others are claiming there’s price manipulation in the space. Regardless, there is no Bullish narrative that can save Bitcoin right now.

The Bearish Case

The Bears are righteous having had their predictions of a significant crash in Bitcoin come to fruition after months of Bulls poking fun at them. Bitcoin has broken through key support levels all the way down and has devastated the charts causing significant technical damage. Some Bears are predicting Bitcoin will drop below $50K with others predicting drops below $20K. It’s important to remember that if we are headed into another Crypto Winter, Bitcoin has crashed more than -90% in the past (however that’s more than a decade ago). That being said, in 2022, Bitcoin crashed -77.57% which gives us a price target below $30K and, in 2018, Bitcoin crashed -84.36% which gives us a price target under $20K.

Bitcoin Trade Update

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.
• In November, Bitcoin dropped -36% to a low of $80,524.65.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.