Summing Up The Week

While the Federal Government reopening gave some life to markets, that bullish rally was smacked down hard when Federal Reserve members reinforced Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish comments from the last meeting about a December rate cut not being a sure bet.

Compounding that news was a market jittery from nosebleed valuations in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector and you get the recipe for a decent pullback in stocks across the board.

Let’s take a deeper dive into the news that moved markets this week…

Market News

Federal Government Reopens

Nearly every investment asset including stocks, gold and Bitcoin rallied on Monday when the Federal Government finally decided to end the longest shutdown in history as the Senate passed a bill to reopen, reported ABC News.

Initially, the markets had shrugged off the closure of the Federal Government as an event we’d seen before, however as the days dragged on to weeks and months, the effects of the shutdown became pronounced and stocks pulled back.

So, when Congress finally decided to do their jobs and come to some sort of a compromise between the Republicans and the Democrats, the beaten-down assets saw reason to experience a relief rally.

December rate cut losing odds causes stock market selloff

On Thursday, remarks from Federal Reserve members caused the markets to realize Chair Jerome Powell wasn’t messing around about saying a December rate cut wasn’t a sure thing and all markets sold off, reported CNBC.

Fedspeak is always a tricky thing and, often,  doesn’t amount to much, but it sure did on Thursday when remarks from Powell’s colleagues displayed a lot of concern over whether the Fed should cut rates again on December 10. Stocks quickly discounted the potential for a rate cut with all risk assets including Bitcoin pulling back quite a bit.

“These developments chip away at our confidence the Fed will cut in [December] without giving us any more confidence a skip to [January] is a better bet,” Krishna Guha, Head of Global Policy and Central Bank Strategy at Evercore ISI, said in a note. “This leaves us still seeing a [December] cut more likely than not but only 55-60 per cent.”

Next Week’s Gameplan

With the government reopening, we will theoretically start seeing economic data being released again (although the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in a statement that it is unlikely we will receive payroll numbers for September or even October). 

On Wednesday, we get the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s October meeting and Friday sees the release of the S&P flash services and manufacturing PMI along with November’s Consumer Sentiment survey results.

Tuesday sees an unusual event: Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) is distributing three series of freely tradable warrants (Series K, Series A, and Series Z) as a dividend to common stockholders. This is not a stock split, which would adjust the number of outstanding shares and proportionally change the share price. Instead, it’s a no-cost distribution of derivative securities that give holders the right (but not the obligation) to buy additional Opendoor shares at fixed prices in the future. As a result, on charts like TradingView, this warrant distribution will come across as a 31/30 stock split where existing shareholder will receive 31 shares for every 30 shares they hold.

As far as earnings on my holdings, the big daddy, Nvidia (NVDA) reports on Wednesday after the market closes along with cybersecurity name Palo Alto Networks (PANW). Nvidia’s report holds the power to dramatically change the outcome of markets – particularly if the company blows away or misses on earnings.

So, next week will have a lot going on. Join me back here next Friday and we’ll discuss it all, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Bitcoin positively imploded on Thursday night after losing the key $100K psychological support and then breaking below the $98K level many Bulls had been pointing to as Bitcoin’s last stand. This breakdown followed Bitcoin’s inability to break the long Bearish trend of lower highs and lower lows, only making a much lower weekly-high at $107.482.00 on Tuesday before once more giving up the ghost and rolling over.

On Thursday evening, Bitcoin broke far below last week’s low as well as the support last established in June at $98,225.01, not finding new support until $94,455.98.

The Bullish Case

Bulls have no choice but to admit that the price action is decidedly not working in their favor. Bitcoin needs to find significant execute a true reversal to get us out of the Bearish downtrend as this price action only promises to take crypto much, much lower.

The Bearish Case

Bears argue that now Bitcoin has broken through key support, it’s only a matter of time before Bitcoin cracks its recent low with key support levels from the past including: $93,363.28; $91,685.18; and $89,028.64. As you can see from the past selloff targets below, you will notice these support levels line up with past lows including the -26.31% low at $93,067.52 and the -30.27% low at $88,066.20. Bears think we’re heading lower and I have no reason to argue them.

Bitcoin Trade Update

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.
• In November, Bitcoin dropped -25% to a low of $94,455.98

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.