Summing Up The Week

With the government shutdown approaching record lengths, there has been a dearth of economic datapoints. In fact, this week marks two months in a row where we haven’t received updated payroll reports, a key indicator of the health of the U.S. economy. 

Combine the shutdown with a sudden loss of faith in the artificial intelligence bull case and you get a stock market pullback like we saw this week.

Let’s take a deeper dive into what caused the AI shakeup as well as next week’s gameplan…

Market News

Palantir reports blowout quarter… starts stock selloff??

Well, this one wasn’t on anyone’s bingo card: on Monday, Palantir Technologies (PLTR) reported an absolutely blowout positive quarter, however, instead of rallying, the stock sold off substantially which triggered a marketwide selloff, reported CNBC.

While the selloff may not have been entirely the fault of Palantir, the company’s stock had become the posterchild of nosebleed valuations, trading with a P/E in excess of 600 (a P/E of 30+ is considered “expensive”).

It’s possible that investors just suddenly realized exactly how crazy the AI bubble had gotten. It’s also possible that a government shutdown entering its 36th day unnerved investors. Plus, it’s also possible that some investors just realized how much profits they had made so far this year and decided to lock in some gains.

No matter the reason(s), both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq opened Tuesday down quite a bit before investors started to buy up the dip.

Next Week’s Gameplan

Next week is a shortened four-day week due to a national holiday, but this is where it gets a little odd: Veteran’s Day is on a Tuesday. As a result, we’ll get a one-day “week” with markets open on Monday, a closed market on Tuesday, and, then, a three-day “week” from Wednesday through Friday. Will it have an impact on price action or sentiment? Likely not but still fun to see.

While we’re supposed to get a lot of reports from the government including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation reports, there seems to be no progress on the government shutdown so I’m not holding my breath.

We are also still getting earnings reports, however next week will be surprisingly slow for me with Brookfield (BN), Disney (DIS), and Virgin Galactic (SPCE) all reporting before the market opens on Thursday.

The price action has been incredibly exciting lately so join me back here to see if it continues or if the market moves somewhere else interesting, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

November: The Month Bitcoin Loves to Die

I’ve been trading and investing in Bitcoin since 2017. While eight years is pretty insignificant in the stock market world, it is multiple lifetimes in the crypto world… three, to be specific.

There have been three “cycles” or “lifetimes” for Bitcoin since 2017 with two ending in Crypto Winters – epic crashes of 60-90% from the last all-time high. Amusingly, there were declarations that “Bitcoin is dead” at the bottom of both of those cycles as well as every cycle since Bitcoin’s inception in 2008.

In 2018, the final descent to the ultimate bottom occurred in early November and carried Bitcoin from $6,000 down nearly an extra -50% to $3,130 in December. In 2022, the final fallout of nearly -30% from $21,500 to $15,500 also started in early November.

In fact, both crashes started between November 5-8 and continued through November with the 2018 crash bottoming in mid-December and the 2022 crash seeing its bottom in late November.

Some Bitcoiners believe in a “four-year cycle” where Bitcoin rises to a new all-time high before crashing to a significant low every four years like clockwork. That would mean 2025 is not the year to expect a significant bottom; that would be next year.

What I have noticed isn’t a timing cycle, but a seasonality and sentiment cycle. Right now, we’re in early November and Bitcoin’s already started to selloff spectacularly. Maybe we actually saw it bottom this week with a -21.59% selloff from its new all-time high at $126,296 to the low… or maybe it’s just getting started?

I make a practice to never try to predict which way Bitcoin is going to go; instead, I choose to make a plan for both directions:

• If Bitcoin heads lower from here, where am I going to add more to my position and how much?

• If Bitcoin heads higher from here, where am I going to take profits from my position and how much?

Regardless of whether Bitcoin has made a bottom or has a lot lower to go, always have a plan in advance. Ask yourself how you will react and what you will do if the unexpected happens? Make that plan in your advance, and the markets will never catch you off-guard whether that’s Bitcoin, stocks, gold, or something entirely different.

Bitcoin Price Action

Bitcoin’s recovery was painfully short-lived. The crypto made an anemic lower weekly high at $111,221.99 before losing every bit of Bullish momentum, collapsing through last week’s low at $106,279.33 as well as support at $103,516.75 and even psychological round-number support at the $100K mark before bottoming on Tuesday at $98,892.97, a -21.70% drawdown from the current all-time high.

From here, the next key level of support is the low from the selloff in June down at $98,225.01 followed by potential support at $93,363.28.

The Bullish Case

Bulls desperately claim to the theory that the ultimate line in the sand is around $98K, a key level of support that buyers must defend in order to prevent a much bigger drawdown. Bulls claim the bounce off the $98,900 low is significant and designates a reversal in momentum with some claiming the selloff has run its course.

The Bearish Case

Bears’ theorizing that the selloff was far from done over the past couple of weeks have seen their prophecy realize. The more level-headed Bears argue that a breakdown below $98K could signify the beginning of a much more substantial selloff. In fact, some Bears believe if $98K fails to hold, Bitcoin will crash -50% or more from those levels, giving us a price target deep into the $40Ks.

Bitcoin Trade Update

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.
• In November, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $98,892.97

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.