Summing Up The Week

Despite many Bears calling for an epic crash in the stock market, a lack of bad news and a better-than-expected inflation report actually ended up sending the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and even the Dow Jones Index to new all-time highs by Friday! 

Let’s take a look at the news that moved markets this week…

Market News

Trump administration sanctions Russian oil over Ukraine

On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced new sanctions against Russia’s two biggest oil companies in an effort to get Russia to cease its war against Ukraine sending oil prices 5% higher on Thursday, reported CBS News.

“Now is the time to stop the killing and for an immediate ceasefire,” Bessent said in a statement. Given Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “refusal to end this senseless war, Treasury is sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies that fund the Kremlin’s war machine.” The statement went on to say the Treasury Department will take further actions to end the war, “We encourage our allies to join us in and adhere to these sanctions.”

Inflation rate comes in at 3.0%, lower than expected

On Friday, the much-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) revealed September’s inflation rate was 3.0% lower than the 3.1% expected by Dow Jones economists, reported CNBC. While that was a +0.3% month-over-month increase, 3.0% is a far cry from the skyrocketing inflation many hawks have been anticipating as a result of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. 

The tame inflation rate has many analysts believing a rate cut from next week’s Federal Reserve meeting is a sure thing, “Like an oasis slaking the thirst of a weary desert traveler, today’s CPI number offered investors the first tidbit of information from the barren wasteland of government data that has existed since the shutdown started Oct 1,” wrote John Kerschner, Global Head of Securitized Products at Janus Henderson. “Investors were not disappointed. Inflation came in softer than expected, leading to a tepid bond market rally, and ensuring that the Fed will cut rates at next week’s Open Market Committee meeting.”

As a result of the inflation report, stocks and Bitcoin rallied on the back of the news while gold remained relatively unchanged.

Next Week’s Gameplan

With the government shutdown seemingly never-ending, we’ll be missing a number of key reports next week. That being said, we’ll still see consumer confidence on Tuesday and GDP on Thursday. However, the big news comes when the Federal Reserve makes their interest rate decision on Wednesday.

During past government shutdowns, the Fed has erred on the side of being dovish, so many market pundits believe the FOMC will vote to cut the interest rate by another 0.25 point instead of leaving it flat. If they choose to leave the rate unchanged, markets may have a bit of a negative reaction.

Naturally, in addition to the data reports and Fed meeting, we’re also in the throes of earnings season so I will be watching my following holdings which will be reporting throughout the week:

Monday: Waste Management (WM) reports After Market Close (AMC).

Tuesday: SoFi Technologies (SOFI) reports Before Market Open (BMO) while Logitech (LOGI) and Visa (V) report AMC.

Wednesday: Boeing (BA) and Caterpillar (CAT) report BMO with Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META), and Microsoft (MSFT) reporting AMC.

Thursday: Roblox (RBLX) reports BMO with Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Coinbase (COIN), and Twilio (TWLO) reporting AMC.

Friday: Chevron (CVX) reports BMO.

So, as you might expect, next week promises to be another big one with news flying at us from every angle so join me back here next Friday while we go through everything that moved markets during the week, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Bitcoin’s Bull-Bear Standoff: Who Blinks First?

Bitcoin was able to use last week’s low of $103,516.75 as a jumping-off point. Bitcoin made a higher-low on Sunday at $106,091.25 – a bullish move – and went on to make a new weekly-high at $114,082.29 on Tuesday. While that does seem like a pretty bullish bounce, Bitcoin’s inability to achieve a high above $116,077.51 – last week’s high – means the crypto achieved a lower-high, not Bullish.

In other words, Bitcoin is in stalemate between the Bulls and Bears for the moment as both sides battle it out to decide where the Big Orange Crypto will head from here.

The Bullish Case

Bulls argue that as long as Bitcoin remains above $97,000 – a key point of support – then the long-term bullish trend is intact. Many Bulls are mocking the Bears for calling the cycle high, arguing that this pullback is simply a pitstop on Bitcoin’s road to new all-time highs.

Given that the recent pullback from the all-time high is still substantially shallow, historically-speaking, at just -18.04% when the shallowest prior pullback from an ATH was -26.31%, I have to agree with the Bulls that the mid-term narrative remains Bullish.

The Bearish Case

Bears argue that the series of lower-highs and lower-lows combined with the lightning-fast pullbacks indicates Bitcoin is headed even lower than its current low. Bears continue to argue that the buyers’ appetite has been satiated and that there are no true positive catalysts on the horizon to send Bitcoin higher.

The permabulls remain out in force with arguments of sub-$100K by the end of October and some arguing Bitcoin will make it to $26K in the coming months.

Bitcoin Trade Update

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.
• Later in October, Bitcoin dropped -18% to a low of $103,000.00

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.