Summing Up The Week

The extended Federal Government shutdown shows no end in sight, but that’s not slowing down the stock market, Bitcoin, or gold one bit! Throughout the week, the major stock indexes along with the Big Orange Crypto and the shiny yellow rock all made new all-time highs!

However, all that changed when President Trump threatened “massive” tariffs on China with both the stock market and Bitcoin selling off. Naturally, gold and silver – both safe-haven trades – increased as a result of Trump’s comments.

Let’s take a deeper dive into the news that moved markets…

Market News

Meeting Minutes Show a Divided Fed

On Wednesday, the meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting showed a more divided Fed than many expected with a dispute between how many interest rate cuts could be coming, reported CNBC. Despite messaging indicating two additional rate cuts before the end of the year would nearly be certain, the “dot plot” expectation charts show that the FOMC was split 10-to-9, a very razor-thin majority expecting two more rate cuts with nearly as many expecting fewer.

“In considering the outlook for monetary policy, almost all participants noted that, with the reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting, the Committee was well positioned to respond in a timely way to potential economic developments,” the minutes stated.

“Participants expressed a range of views about the degree to which the current stance of monetary policy was restrictive and about the likely future path of policy,” the document added. “Most judged that it likely would be appropriate to ease policy further over the remainder of this year.”

With the ongoing government shutdown preventing the release of new economic data, some pundits believe the next Fed meeting in October could be surprising since the FOMC won’t have September’s payroll numbers and may not even have the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) for September – the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation. Without additional datapoints, some pundits are suggesting the Fed could actually hold interest rates steady instead of providing the additional cut the market is anticipating.

Trump threatens “massive” tariff hike on China

On Friday, President Donald Trump threatened to implement a “massive increase of Tariffs” on Chinese imports as a result of export controls China is planning to place on rare earths, reported CNBC. Additionally, Trump threatened on Truth Social that he would cancel his upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping over the dispute.

China is the largest supplier of rare earths including rare earth magnets which are a critical component in everything from automobiles to strategic weapons systems. The U.S. has been having ongoing negotiations to receive more of these rare earths. China wants to import Nvidia’s (NVDA) powerful GPUs for use in the development of artificial intelligence (AI) and Trump refuses.

The result is the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and China with neither side wanting to give in.

Next Week’s Gameplan

Next week, we’ll get the NFIB optimism index on Tuesday, however whether we get the inflation reports expected later in the week (the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday and Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday) will rest entirely on whether or not the Federal Government reopens by that time.

We’re also headed right back into earnings season with companies reporting left and right now! Despite Pandemic Portfolio holding PepsiCo (PEP) reporting this past Thursday, most analysts don’t consider the Earnings Season Kickoff to happen until we see the traditional financials which happens next week.

Here are my holdings I’ll be watching when they report earnings next week:

• Tuesday: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) both report Before Market Open (BMO)
• Wednesday: Morgan Stanley (MS) reports BMO
• Thursday: Schwab (SCHW) reports BMO

Meet me back here next Friday and we’ll go over all the week’s action together, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

The -13.88% Myth: Why This Bitcoin Pullback Changes Everything

Bitcoin completely dominated any Bearish narratives last weekend when it destroyed its previous all-time high at $124,533.00, not setting a new high until $126,296.00 on Monday. Bitcoin set a significantly-higher weekly low, too, finding support at $119,713.65 on Tuesday.

The narrative is decidedly bullish for Bitcoin from this point as a new all-time high combined with stock market sentiment and a pattern of higher-highs and higher-lows indicating the world’s biggest crypto may have more upside in store.

The Bullish Case

Bulls maintain the upper-hand with Bitcoin handily achieving a new all-time high without a substantial pullback. In fact, the most recent pullback of -13.88% from an all-time high before making a new all-time is the new shallowest pullback in Bitcoin’s history from an ATH which means this key figure is now a member of my Key Selloff Targets list (see below).

The Bearish Case

Already, Bears are pointing to the fact that Bitcoin didn’t explode to new higher-highs tens of thousands of dollars higher as Bearish. Bears argue that the investor appetite for Bitcoin has been satiated, and, as a result, the crypto won’t be able to produce the explosively higher all-time highs from the past.

However oxymoronic it might sound, these same Bears argue that despite Bitcoin’s stability limiting its upside that Bitcoin’s downside is unlimited. These Bears try to make the argument that the less-than-14% pullback we saw from Bitcoin’s all-time set in August that a huge selloff is in store for the Big Orange Crypto.

Many Bears believe we’ll see a selloff of more than -20% before the end of the year with some going as far as to predict another Crypto Winter with selloffs in excess of -60% coming soon.

If this happens, I say “bring it on” as I’d love to add at those discount prices, but I am incredibly skeptical of many of the Bears’ arguments at this point.

Bitcoin Trade Update

Premium subscribers to Get Irked get access to all the moves I’ve made in my Bitcoin trade over the past week as well as my next thirty (30) … yes, 30 … buys in Bitcoin including price levels, quantities, and a full layout of my ongoing long-term trade in the world’s biggest crypto.

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.