Summing Up The Week

Despite the government shutdown limiting the release of critical datapoints like September’s payroll report, investors ignored any of the negative aspects of the ineptitude of American politicians. The indexes all roared to record highs this week while typical noncorrelated assets like gold also continued to rally. In other words, it was an odd week.

Let’s take a deep dive into what happened to stocks this week…

Market News

Consumer Confidence lower than expected

On Tuesday, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence showed a 94.2 reading, down 3.6 points from August’s reading and below the Dow Jones 96.0 estimate, likely due to the potential of a government shutdown, reported CNBC.

Additionally, consumers see the business environment as challenging. “Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was much less positive than in recent months, while their appraisal of current job availability fell for the ninth straight month to reach a new multiyear low,” said Stephanie Guichard, the organization’s Senior Economist for Global Indicators.

The Payroll Report that… Wasn’t

Thanks to the government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics was unable to release September’s payroll report on Friday as the department was closed. As a result, the market had t operate without any knowledge of the health of the economy with many wondering whether or not the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again when they meet later in October.

Next Week’s Gameplan

With the government shutdown continuing, it’s hard to know what data we will and won’t get next week, but we will definitely see consumer credit on Tuesday and consumer sentiment on Friday. We’re also supposed to see initial jobless claims on Thursday if the government is back in session which should provide some insight into the labor market ahead of whenever we get September’s payroll report.

Outside of that, the week is supposed to be quiet in terms of planned datapoints, but with the state of the current domestic and geopolitical environment, we know anything is possible so come back here next week to discuss all of the market-moving events, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Permabears in Panic Mode: Bitcoin’s Rally Roars!

Bitcoin’s momentum reversed from Bearish to Bullish in a big way this week with Bitcoin briefly stopping to make a higher weekly-low at $109,116.00 before exploding upward. Bitcoin flew through last week’s high as well as the next level of resistance to make a new higher weekly-high on Thursday at $121,111.00.

The Bullish Case

Bulls certainly regained the narrative over the past week! Despite the Bears calling for much lower lows under $108,623.70, the price action proves that call was very wrong. Now, Bulls are calling for a test of the all-time high and maybe even new higher all-time highs before the end of October.

The Bearish Case

Bears have been sent back to their caves to lick their wounds. The Bearish narrative completely unwound over the past week on the back of Bitcoin’s rally. More prudent Bears believe we’ll see a pullback to at least around $117,000 while the permabears are still calling for lows below $108K but I find this narrative hard to swallow. That being said, I’m always prepared for a deep selloff (I even hope for them so I can add more at lower levels).

Bitcoin Trade Update

Premium subscribers to Get Irked get access to all the moves I’ve made in my Bitcoin trade over the past week as well as my next thirty (30) … yes, 30 … buys in Bitcoin including price levels, quantities, and a full layout of my ongoing long-term trade in the world’s biggest crypto.

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.