Summing Up The Week

The markets continued to rally for the entire shortened trading week regardless of whether the news catalysts could be considered good or bad. In fact, it felt as though all news was good news with a bad private sector jobs report from ADP on Thursday being contradicted by a strong payrolls report on Friday.

But, hey, that’s what makes markets, sometimes!

Let’s take a deeper dive into the news that moved markets this week…

Market News

Private sector lost 33K jobs vs expectations for a 100K gain

On Wednesday, the payroll processor ADP reported that the private jobs sector unexpectedly lost 33,000 jobs versus expectations for a 100,000 increase, reported CNBC. This dramatic miss indicates that the labor market may be weakening much faster than anyone expected.

So, why did the stock market rally on the news?

This is a case of bad news being good news. It seems like everyone from President Donald Trump down to the average investor and consumer wants the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. However, the Fed has been unwilling to do so seeing the strength of the economy, the strength of the job market, and the potential for inflation due to Trump’s tariffs.

Well, now we have weakness in the economy. With the Fed’s two mandates being to tamp down inflation and to ensure the health of the economy, the market is betting that the Fed will have to cut rates to prevent further weakness in the labor market.

U.S. payrolls increased by 147K in June, more than expected

On Thursday, investors learned once again to take the ADP report with a grain of salt when the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for June showed an increase of 147,000 versus the 110,000 estimate, reported CNBC. Despite the markets rallying on bad news the day prior, stocks continued even higher when the payrolls number showed the labor market was stronger than participants thought on Thursday.

The potential for a July rate cut from the Federal Reserve was once again axed by the results. “The solid June jobs report confirms that the labor market remains resolute and slams the door shut on a July rate cut,” said Jeff Schulze, Head of Economic and Market Strategy at ClearBridge Investments. “Today’s good news should be treated as such by the markets, with equities rising despite the accompanying pickup in interest rates.”

Next Week’s Gameplan

After week’s of earnings reports and a never-ending onslaught of economic reports and datapoints, next week feels particularly barren. Sure, we’ll get the NFIB optimism index and consumer credit on Tuesday followed by the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s May meeting on Wednesday, but, really, that’s about it.

Does that mean we won’t see any market movement next week?

Absolutely not! In fact, I find that the weeks which appear the deadest going into them can be the most volatile of all when we get news we didn’t expect from all sides.

Regardless of whether next week’s exciting or boring, I will meet you back here next Friday to discuss everything that moved (or didn’t move) the markets, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Is Now Bitcoin’s Time to Moon?

Bitcoin regained its bullish momentum over the past week. After making a higher weekly high, the buyers stepped in when Bitcoin pulled back, helping it make a much higher low at $105,119.20 on Thursday. Then, on Friday, Bitcoin made an even higher weekly-high at $110,300.00.

The Bullish Case

Bulls point to the bullish sentiment in the stock market as support for the narrative that Bitcoin’s Bull Market will take the crypto even higher from here. After making both a higher-low and a higher-high for the week, the price action also supports the Bull case. Many Bulls believe we’ll see Bitcoin make a new all-time high before the end of July with some believing it will actually happen within the next week.

The Bearish Case

Bears had to return to the drawing board after Bitcoin’s selloff during the Israel-Iran conflict quickly reversed course. While some Bears cling to the narrative that the break of support at $100,000 is critical and that Bitcoin will head much, much lower in the coming weeks and months, the price action does not support this narrative.

Bitcoin Trade Update

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.