Summing Up The Week

It only took a few weeks for stock market participants to remember President Donald Trump’s “amazing” negotiation tactics from his first term. Initially, stocks sold off Monday morning on the back of Trump threatening massive tariffs against Canada, China, and Mexico, however, by that evening, Trump had “postponed” the tariffs from taking place on Canada and Mexico for 30 days (no exemption for “CHYNA,” of course).

After that, it was off to the races for the markets. Even after China announced it had initiated 15% retaliatory tariffs, stocks shrugged off the news. That’s right. Everyone has muscle memory to Trump’s first term where his flip-flopping policies ended up being buying opportunities and nothing to worry about.

So, let’s take a look at the news that moved markets this week…

Market News

Trump slaps tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico

True to his word, President Donald Trump announced that the proposed tariffs against Canada, China, and Mexico would take effect at 12:01 a.m. ET on Saturday, reported CNBC.

“We’ve got the Super Bowl coming up, and eerily, the amount of people that fit in the [New Orleans] Superdome are almost exactly equal to the number of people dying every year here in America from fentanyl, and that comes from China and Mexico,” Peter Navarro, senior adviser to the president for trade and manufacturing, told CNBC in an interview Friday. “This is why we have these kind of discussions.”

With the markets closed over the weekend (of course), the immediate reaction couldn’t readily be determined, however Bitcoin did exhibit weakness, trading down to the $91,000 mark following the confirmation of the tariffs.

On Monday, Trump stayed true to form from his first term, announcing in the evening that he had spoken with both the prime minister of Canada and the president of Mexico, and, after “good talks,” decided to delay the implementation of the tariffs for 30 days. The U.S. did go through with the 10% tariff on China, though.

China announces retaliatory tariffs on U.S.

On Tuesday, China announced it would be implementing tariffs on the United States and launching an investigation into Alphabet (GOOGL), reported The Street. According to the Financial Times, the investigation on Google’s parent company will “focus on dominance of the US group’s Android operating system and any harm caused to Chinese phonemakers, such as Oppo and Xiaomi, which use the software.”

James Lewis of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a nonpartisan think tank, offered context on China’s decision, stating, “The timing is not a coincidence. It’s mainly a message to the US government—the Chinese have decided they’re not just going to take sanction after sanction.”

U.S. adds only 143K jobs, unemployment falls to 4%

On Friday, January’s payroll report revaled that the U.S. economy only added 143,000 jobs during the month instead of the 169,000 expected by economists, however the unemployment rate still dropped a bit to 4%, reported CNBC. 

Job growth for January was concentrated in health care (44,000), retail (34,000) and government (32,000). The total gain for the month was slightly off the average 166,000 in 2024, reported the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Social assistance added 22,000 while mining-related industries lost 8,000.

“A lower-than-expected January payrolls number was more than offset by upward revisions to November and December’s totals and a downtick in the unemployment rate,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. “Those who’d hoped for a soft report that would nudge the Fed back into rate-cutting mode didn’t get it.”

Next Week’s Gameplan

Next week, we start to see the monthly inflation reports with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) coming out on Wednesday followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. Additionally, we’ll also get to see the U.S. retail sales report for January released on Friday, so there are plenty of economic datapoints coming in.

Additionally, earnings season isn’t over yet:

• Shopify (SHOP) reports before the bell on Tuesday
• Barrick Gold (GOLD) before the bell on Wednesday;
• Dutch Bros (BROS) and Robinhood (HOOD) after the close on Wednesday;
• Brookfield (BN), Digital Realty Trust (DLR), Iridium Communications (IRDM), Yeti (YETI), and Zoetis (ZTS) before the bell on Thursday;
• and Coinbase (COIN), DraftKings (DKNG), and Twilio (TWLO) after the close on Thursday.

Plus, it’s almost a sure thing that Trump will throw another monkeywrench or two into the mix, as well, so next week promises to keep bringing the heat! I’ll see you back here next Friday to cover all the crazy, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Bitcoin’s Volatility

Everything seemed fine for Bitcoin until President Donald Trump reiterated his desire to implement tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico over the weekend. Out of nowhere, the bottom dropped out on Bitcoin and it flew through the previous weekly-low at $97,715.03, not finding support until $91,178.01.

From there, Big Orange didn’t see much of a bounce, either, making a substantially lower weekly-high at $102,599.85 before retreating back below the $100K mark as the week wore on.

Not only that, but the altcoins were positively smacked. Ether, silver to Bitcoin’s gold, dropped straight through $3,000 and kept going down to $2,100, an epic selloff in a remarkably short amount of time.

The Bullish Case

Bulls try to argue that this is just “natural consolidation” with some predicting Bitcoin will break through $110K within the next week or two. There is a distinct sense of nervousness out there, though, as this similar price action to how Bitcoin behaved during its 2022 and 2018 crashes from key levels which had seemed to provide past support but didn’t hold.

The Bearish Case

Bears are taking the ball and running with it. Bitcoin is displaying multiple bearish signals from lower-lows and lower-highs to not recognizing past support before dropping down significantly. Personally, these downdrafts and volatile upswings making lower highs vividly remind me of the price action I witnessed first-hand both in 2022 but, specifically, in November 2018.

In both cases, Bitcoin collapsed more than -50% from already oversold levels which were significantly lower than the all-time high. In this case, it’s potentially possible that Bitcoin could head into another Crypto Winter, dropping -70% to -90% or more. Of course, I’m not sure what the catalyst could be to make it do that, but it’s critical to remember the possibility is always there.

Bitcoin Trade Update

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,321.90.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.